re: Different way to look at returning experience (LSU #1)

Well it's important to realize what it's projecting: net change in performance (pts/game) for next year. Alabama won the NC this year and seemed to clearly be the best team. Do you think they should be projected to improve given who they lose? Now Alabama recruits well enough to mitigate experience lost more than anyone in the country, so this projection is going to skew them negatively.

However, the 50/50 finish on bowl bets is pretty bad. It's one year, and I don't know how many bowls they predicted, but any kind of worthwhile system should be significantly over 50 for outright winners. That's terrible.