re: Gotta love winter in the South..

Wouldn't be shocked to see that increase in risk. Low is going to come off the rockies. While over the mountains, you'll have the air compressed but still a relative low pressure area. When it ejects into the southern planes, the air column stretches out and the low increases in intensity very quickly. The severe threat will be most focused nearest the "triple point" where the warm front moving north toward the low and the cold front moving east meet up right by the low.

That being said, the mid south will be close enough to be under the gun. Happy El Nino.