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re: 2016 LSU Football Season Prediction Thread
Posted on 1/19/16 at 4:32 pm to southeasttiger113
Posted on 1/19/16 at 4:32 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
And it doesn't have to be 50/50 you fricking tard, it just has to include two options
The gambler's fallacy is a person incorrectly interpreting consecutive outcomes of a game in which neither side has a better chance of winning than the other as some sort of proof that one side is better or has an advantage over the other or misinterpreting that advantage. That is what it means at it's base. You can apply it to other situations, but the purest form of a gambler's fallacy is a person incorrectly interpreting results as proof that there is a difference in the chance of success.
It is the same as the hot hand theory.
Every game/play is independent of all other games/plays. However, in the real world, every game/play has odds of success based on 1,000 different factors. You are right, someone could see a bad hitter have a good week and decide that proves they are a good hitter. However, larger sample sizes generally prove that fallacy wrong (along with stats like BABIP and the like that attempt to break down "hot hand" and strip it out). Football isn't the same as baseball and it can't be broken down in the same way, and the idea that a team won the last 2 years based on luck is silly. A football game is not in anyway the same sort of small sample sized luck based situation as a baseball player having 3 at bats and squeaking 3 balls through the left side. That is just silly.
You are applying the fallacy in a way that assumes the "facts" you believe are infallible, and the "facts" that might not support your belief are unallowable and irrational. You earlier said that Vegas makes their money off of people like me. Vegas makes it's money off of irrational people like you.
It's silly.
This post was edited on 1/19/16 at 4:34 pm
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Posted on 1/19/16 at 4:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
You earlier said that Vegas makes their money off of people like me. Vegas makes it's money off of irrational people like you.
He still doesn't understand that when betting sports, which is what we're discussing, going against the hot team because the "have to lose eventually" is what's considered the fallacy.
Bookies scalp uninformed betters because of this all the time. They love when people, like this moron, look at betting sports as anything close to 50/50 odds.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 4:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:I know this. And those factors are nonexistent and impossible to predict at this point in time. Ya'll are acting like I'm dumb because I'm choosing to disregard a bunch of random speculation that's impossible to validate being thrown around.
in the real world, every game/play has odds of success based on 1,000 different factors
quote:No it doesn't, because I don't bet on sports. I'm willing to bet that more than a few people who are trying to explain to me that there are all of these methods to predict winners DO like to bet on sports though, and I'm willing to bet that they're down in their lifetimes.
Vegas makes it's money off of irrational people like you.
quote:Is this not what several people have been saying? Not saying you, but other people, specifically that Arkansas fan that was dumb enough t think I'm fricked up 75% of the time. You're dragging the things I'm saying to other people and acting like I'm targeting you. I'm not, I understand what you're saying but you're replying to me when I'm not talking to you and it muddied up the conversation to the point that it was completely blown apart
purest form of a gambler's fallacy is a person incorrectly interpreting results as proof that there is a difference in the chance of success.
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