re: 2016 LSU Football Season Prediction Thread

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And it doesn't have to be 50/50 you fricking tard, it just has to include two options

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The gambler's fallacy is a person incorrectly interpreting consecutive outcomes of a game in which neither side has a better chance of winning than the other as some sort of proof that one side is better or has an advantage over the other or misinterpreting that advantage. That is what it means at it's base. You can apply it to other situations, but the purest form of a gambler's fallacy is a person incorrectly interpreting results as proof that there is a difference in the chance of success.

It is the same as the hot hand theory.

Every game/play is independent of all other games/plays. However, in the real world, every game/play has odds of success based on 1,000 different factors. You are right, someone could see a bad hitter have a good week and decide that proves they are a good hitter. However, larger sample sizes generally prove that fallacy wrong (along with stats like BABIP and the like that attempt to break down "hot hand" and strip it out). Football isn't the same as baseball and it can't be broken down in the same way, and the idea that a team won the last 2 years based on luck is silly. A football game is not in anyway the same sort of small sample sized luck based situation as a baseball player having 3 at bats and squeaking 3 balls through the left side. That is just silly.

You are applying the fallacy in a way that assumes the "facts" you believe are infallible, and the "facts" that might not support your belief are unallowable and irrational. You earlier said that Vegas makes their money off of people like me. Vegas makes it's money off of irrational people like you.

It's silly.