re: Which first time Head Coach gets fired first?

first of all, it's simply not possible for all schools to hire a proven HC. proven HC's have large buyouts and they have tendencies to be happy where they are winning and the fans love them.

so asst coaches are fertile ground to move up. also, as the HC's get old and retire (a la Spurrier and the guy at VT) upward mobility accelerates.

taking a chance on an "up and comer" assistant is much less expensive than stealing a successful HC from another program due to these buyouts. if the guy doesn't work out, fire him and give it another go with someone else.