re: Huge pet peeve (starting 22)

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A huge pet peeve I have is when someone says "but they only return (x) amount of starters." Every situation is different and just because a team only returns a low number of starters does not mean that they will be worse. Just as many times than not some teams are better after losing graduating starters and sometimes junior pros.

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I wonder if your pet peeve is any less reactionary than the ones who reflexively praise returning starters without knowing why or how much it might matter. Certainly, I've seen few educate themselves on the subject but for those willing to learn a bit on the topic Dave Bartoo has the best/most facts based analysis I've seen on the subject.

Via an older article by Bartoo:

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Offense: The magic number on offense is 7. This is the cut line for winning. Below 7 returning offensive starters and your team’s odds for 2012 having as many or more wins than in 2011 drops to or below 50%. Of the 14 teams that returned 10 or 11 in the last 4 years, 10 went on to an equal or better number of regular season wins in the next season. Overall, teams with 7 or more starters on Offense coming back had .36 more wins per team and .62 more wins for those returning 8 or more. Teams with 6 or fewer back on offense averaged -.62 fewer games won for each team and the odds of having a worse record in 2012 versus 2011 is 52%.


Offense Nutshell. There is very little overall impact on offensive returning starters between returning 4-9 players. 8 or more is about an extra win for every other team. It is clear there is a difference in performance at 7 or more coming back. However the odds of your team having as many or more wins in 2012 based on 9 or fewer returning starters on offense is still less than 62% in at any number. 27 AQ schools return 8 or more on offense.
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Defense: Unlike the offense, the defense needs another player. Teams returning 7 or fewer on the defensive side of the ball, have the odds against them. Those teams average -.21 less games won per team versus the previous year and have a 45% chance of having fewer wins in 2012. Teams with 8+ starters on D coming back, average nearly a plus half a game each over the previous year win total. There are 23 teams in 2012 with 8+ returning and 6 of those teams are coming off of 10+ win seasons (see more about 10+ Ws below). Teams returning 7+ on defense average just +.23 games more wins per team.

Defense Nutshell: Returning less than 7 starters on Defense is a 50/50 coin flip for a record as good or better than in 2011. 8-9 back on D and your odds go to just over 60% for an as good of better record. Only 10+ is a huge lock with 7 out of 7 teams having as good or better records at 100% in the last 4 years. This year it is an amazing 6 teams with 10+ back on D.

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Bartoo among other things also notes that 16 or more is the total you want to see for your team.

LINK /