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re: Bama vs Wisconsin football stuff (it's game week boys and girls!)
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:50 pm to taylormade
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:50 pm to taylormade
-Thoughts on Auburn:
--Auburn is all about the offense. Yeah, they have Muschamp, but it's not like Ellis Johnson was considered a loser (nor Vangorder before him). The first issue is simply talent. Auburn, while having good defensive lines, has been very poor in the back 7. I believe the other side has been practice style. Many overlook the fact that Malzahn prefers to practice with minimal contact, and with a focus on offensive tempo. That has to make it hard for the defense to get quality reps, and I think it shows on the field.
--If I were an Auburn fan, my concern would be on a running game that's losing a lot of crucial pieces. Their 2013 team used Prosch as a lead blocker for a powerful zone running game. In 2014, Uzomah and Fulse tepped up into h-back roles, and they continued their sweep game. Now, without Uzomah, Fulse, Grant, Marshall, or Artis-Payne, all the pieces of the power zone play are gone. Everyone looks at Marshall, but Uzomah, Fulse, and Grant are just as importantt. Uzomah and Fulse allowed Auburn to line up in a wide variety of formation to leverage good pass catchers as blockers. It's tough on the defender lined up opposite of Uzomah and Fulse, as they were either too small for the run or too big for the pass. Plus, Auburn could run anything from a 4-wide to a 2-TE set from the same personnel.
--This year, Auburn has only freshmen to use at FB. Malzahn himself noted in camp that the position was one of his greatest worries. Add the loss of your two leading rushers, and Auburn (who ran that power zone over and over and over the last two years) will need a new bag of tricks.
--This gets to the passing game. Johnson may be a great passer. He may not be. But I do know that he only has one returning starter at WR in Duke, and (many miss this) Louis will be needed to fill Corey Grant's role as a sweep back if they want to keep that part of their playbook. Johnson may well be better, and not have much to show for it.
--Take these two QBs:
QB1 - Soph - 36/48 (75%) 410 yards 7 TDs 0 INTs
QB2 - Soph - 28/37 (76%) 436 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs
--QB1? John Brantley in 2009. Heralded as the next big thing going into 2010 after backing up (and starting for an injured) Tim Tebow in 2009. However, Brantley would ultimately come to be known generally as a failure.
--The point here is that you just can't say anything, one way or another, until the pads start popping on a big stage. I'm not going to criticize Johnson, as I haven't seen him, but I strongly caution against those praising him, because you haven't seen him either. Even if he /is/ better, I doubt it shows too much for the reasons above.
--All that said, they should be more talented on defense. The return of Lawson, addition of Matthews at S, and maturity of their LBs should pay dividends. However, the loss of Wright, Blackson and Bradley really hurts their depth, and they will likely be susceptible against the run. Further, don't overlook that they lost 3/6 in their nickel. The media tends to miss when this happens... Therezie (the "Star") isn't part of the 4-3, so his loss doesn't show up on a lot of sheets (Athlon only shows 2 CBs, for example). But, in a nickel, they have minimal depth, and they may well have to start a freshman.
--For those of you looking for Auburn to lose to Louisville, personally, I wouldn't bother. Louisville lost as many players to the draft last year as they had the prior 7 years /combined/. They are just totally depleted. For example, they lost 7 of their top 9 receivers. Mentally prepare yourself for Auburn to thump them, and to hear a lot of chest thumping as a result. If Auburn doesn't thump them, it's a REALLY bad sign.
-Thoughts on Arkansas
--I'm just not that high on these guys.
--They have a good offensive line and a strong run game, but they probably will feel the loss of Williams pretty badly.
--Offensively, I just don't see them getting much better. Allen improved tremendously last year, but 2/3 leading receivers were tight ends, a sure sign that you aren't running a /real/ passing game. They just don't have any receivers you're scared of, and that's not a good thing in this league.
--The bigger issue is on defense. Arkansas had a hot end to last year shutting out LSU and Ole Miss. Much of that was due to Arkansas's disruptive front, with 3 players (Flowers, Philon, and Spaight) in double digit TFL. None return.
--Everyone seems to be overlooking the loss of Spaight. He has 127 tackles last year, about double anyone else. To put it in perspective, CJ Mosley had 107 in 2012. Considering the poor recruiting Arkansas had under Petrino and Smith, I think their defense may take a step back.
--If their defense takes a step back, (considering the injury to Williams) I doubt the offense can keep pace.
--Auburn is all about the offense. Yeah, they have Muschamp, but it's not like Ellis Johnson was considered a loser (nor Vangorder before him). The first issue is simply talent. Auburn, while having good defensive lines, has been very poor in the back 7. I believe the other side has been practice style. Many overlook the fact that Malzahn prefers to practice with minimal contact, and with a focus on offensive tempo. That has to make it hard for the defense to get quality reps, and I think it shows on the field.
--If I were an Auburn fan, my concern would be on a running game that's losing a lot of crucial pieces. Their 2013 team used Prosch as a lead blocker for a powerful zone running game. In 2014, Uzomah and Fulse tepped up into h-back roles, and they continued their sweep game. Now, without Uzomah, Fulse, Grant, Marshall, or Artis-Payne, all the pieces of the power zone play are gone. Everyone looks at Marshall, but Uzomah, Fulse, and Grant are just as importantt. Uzomah and Fulse allowed Auburn to line up in a wide variety of formation to leverage good pass catchers as blockers. It's tough on the defender lined up opposite of Uzomah and Fulse, as they were either too small for the run or too big for the pass. Plus, Auburn could run anything from a 4-wide to a 2-TE set from the same personnel.
--This year, Auburn has only freshmen to use at FB. Malzahn himself noted in camp that the position was one of his greatest worries. Add the loss of your two leading rushers, and Auburn (who ran that power zone over and over and over the last two years) will need a new bag of tricks.
--This gets to the passing game. Johnson may be a great passer. He may not be. But I do know that he only has one returning starter at WR in Duke, and (many miss this) Louis will be needed to fill Corey Grant's role as a sweep back if they want to keep that part of their playbook. Johnson may well be better, and not have much to show for it.
--Take these two QBs:
QB1 - Soph - 36/48 (75%) 410 yards 7 TDs 0 INTs
QB2 - Soph - 28/37 (76%) 436 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs
--QB1? John Brantley in 2009. Heralded as the next big thing going into 2010 after backing up (and starting for an injured) Tim Tebow in 2009. However, Brantley would ultimately come to be known generally as a failure.
--The point here is that you just can't say anything, one way or another, until the pads start popping on a big stage. I'm not going to criticize Johnson, as I haven't seen him, but I strongly caution against those praising him, because you haven't seen him either. Even if he /is/ better, I doubt it shows too much for the reasons above.
--All that said, they should be more talented on defense. The return of Lawson, addition of Matthews at S, and maturity of their LBs should pay dividends. However, the loss of Wright, Blackson and Bradley really hurts their depth, and they will likely be susceptible against the run. Further, don't overlook that they lost 3/6 in their nickel. The media tends to miss when this happens... Therezie (the "Star") isn't part of the 4-3, so his loss doesn't show up on a lot of sheets (Athlon only shows 2 CBs, for example). But, in a nickel, they have minimal depth, and they may well have to start a freshman.
--For those of you looking for Auburn to lose to Louisville, personally, I wouldn't bother. Louisville lost as many players to the draft last year as they had the prior 7 years /combined/. They are just totally depleted. For example, they lost 7 of their top 9 receivers. Mentally prepare yourself for Auburn to thump them, and to hear a lot of chest thumping as a result. If Auburn doesn't thump them, it's a REALLY bad sign.
-Thoughts on Arkansas
--I'm just not that high on these guys.
--They have a good offensive line and a strong run game, but they probably will feel the loss of Williams pretty badly.
--Offensively, I just don't see them getting much better. Allen improved tremendously last year, but 2/3 leading receivers were tight ends, a sure sign that you aren't running a /real/ passing game. They just don't have any receivers you're scared of, and that's not a good thing in this league.
--The bigger issue is on defense. Arkansas had a hot end to last year shutting out LSU and Ole Miss. Much of that was due to Arkansas's disruptive front, with 3 players (Flowers, Philon, and Spaight) in double digit TFL. None return.
--Everyone seems to be overlooking the loss of Spaight. He has 127 tackles last year, about double anyone else. To put it in perspective, CJ Mosley had 107 in 2012. Considering the poor recruiting Arkansas had under Petrino and Smith, I think their defense may take a step back.
--If their defense takes a step back, (considering the injury to Williams) I doubt the offense can keep pace.
This post was edited on 8/31/15 at 4:52 pm
1
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:51 pm to taylormade
-Thoughts on MSU
--I will be very, very surprised if they're any good. Their 9 returning starters puts them 121/127 in FBS. And they don't recruit well. They have Prescott, but who will block? Who will run?
--Oh, and there was always talk last year of their first string D and their second string. The first string was as good as anyone. The second string... was a little rough.
--To me, 2014 MSU was a classic case of a senior-laden team having huge success early due to their edge and experience, and fading late as other teams catch up. Take away the seniority, and they're just an untalented team with a couple of decent players. It will take a great coaching job by Mullen (whom I believe to be an excellent coach but a poor recruiter) for them to be even competitive in the West.
-Thoughts on Ole Miss
--Initial impression: if you're a top 5 team one year, and return 16 starters, you /really/ ought to be good.
--Hilton, Elston and Conner are solid safeties, and they won't really miss Prewitt. They lost both corners, but replace them with two 4* JUCO guys. Shepard was slated to start last season before injury.
--In short, this is a /solid/ looking team.
--Still, there's no depth (much like last season). They need Treadwell and Tunsil early, because the TCU game showed just how drastic the drop-off is after them.
--It's unfortunate we play them early. Their experience and first string talent is impressive. It will be injuries that will likely kill them.
--I can't help but feel that this is an underrated squad (due to the TCU debacle). When healthy, on paper, they are as good as they come.
--Much of this hinges on Kelly. However, I don't understand why Johnson at AU, with his limited reps, has all they hype, while Kelly, who has far more experience as the NJCAA 1st team QB, gets none. I kind of feel that the preseason predictions for Auburn and Ole Miss this year are generally backward (I wouldn't fault anyone for picking OM to win the SEC for the first time ever).
--They better enjoy it though, because they are going to fall off a cliff next season unless they can convince their 5* players to stick around.
-Thoughts on UT
--There is every single reason to think they get better. They return virtually everyone of note outside of AJ Johnson.
--The problem is that better may be good, and not necessarily great. This was a 6-6 regular season team last year. There's a lot of hype after the win over Iowa, but Iowa absolutely limped into the bowl.
--With Oklahoma week 2 followed later by UGA and UF, Tennessee may well be 3-3 going into their game against Bama. A better team, but a 7 or 8 win season is still likely.
-Thoughts on UGA
--Good news: Jenkins and Floyd chose to come back. Bad news: The rest of the front 7 will not. Herrera and Wilson were both 110+ tackle players at LB, and the lack of any returning DL will have to hurt.
On offense, Georgia was 1st in the SEC in rushing last year, but only 9th in passing. (If you want to understand the UF/USC losses, that may be why. Both teams had consistent issues defending the pass, but UGA probably wasn't good enough to exploit it).
--The question will be if they can pass. Malcolm Mitchell is the only receiver on the roster with at least 100 yards receiving in his career. They will likely start a new QB in Ramsey. The running game may be good, but it's hard to win if you're one-dimensional.
-I'm curious to see how Southern Cal holds up this year. I've predicted that 2015 and 2016 would be rough for them just due to their numbers and the way probation shakes out. They should have about 75 players on scholarship, but most all of them are underclassmen. When that big group matures, they may be great, but national title talk for an 8-4 team from last year may be pretty premature.
-I will be really interested in watching the Ohio-State versus VT game on Monday. Ohio State may have the revenge factor, but they will be out their top 4 receivers, and VT should have a top 5 defense. It gets hard to move the ball when you're on your #5, #6, and #7 guys. Otherwise, Ohio State really does look legit. You can't forget that college football is /not/ a balanced sport. Sometimes, there is a team that's just absurdly good. Ohio State is such a team, and it's all about focus.
--I will be very, very surprised if they're any good. Their 9 returning starters puts them 121/127 in FBS. And they don't recruit well. They have Prescott, but who will block? Who will run?
--Oh, and there was always talk last year of their first string D and their second string. The first string was as good as anyone. The second string... was a little rough.
--To me, 2014 MSU was a classic case of a senior-laden team having huge success early due to their edge and experience, and fading late as other teams catch up. Take away the seniority, and they're just an untalented team with a couple of decent players. It will take a great coaching job by Mullen (whom I believe to be an excellent coach but a poor recruiter) for them to be even competitive in the West.
-Thoughts on Ole Miss
--Initial impression: if you're a top 5 team one year, and return 16 starters, you /really/ ought to be good.
--Hilton, Elston and Conner are solid safeties, and they won't really miss Prewitt. They lost both corners, but replace them with two 4* JUCO guys. Shepard was slated to start last season before injury.
--In short, this is a /solid/ looking team.
--Still, there's no depth (much like last season). They need Treadwell and Tunsil early, because the TCU game showed just how drastic the drop-off is after them.
--It's unfortunate we play them early. Their experience and first string talent is impressive. It will be injuries that will likely kill them.
--I can't help but feel that this is an underrated squad (due to the TCU debacle). When healthy, on paper, they are as good as they come.
--Much of this hinges on Kelly. However, I don't understand why Johnson at AU, with his limited reps, has all they hype, while Kelly, who has far more experience as the NJCAA 1st team QB, gets none. I kind of feel that the preseason predictions for Auburn and Ole Miss this year are generally backward (I wouldn't fault anyone for picking OM to win the SEC for the first time ever).
--They better enjoy it though, because they are going to fall off a cliff next season unless they can convince their 5* players to stick around.
-Thoughts on UT
--There is every single reason to think they get better. They return virtually everyone of note outside of AJ Johnson.
--The problem is that better may be good, and not necessarily great. This was a 6-6 regular season team last year. There's a lot of hype after the win over Iowa, but Iowa absolutely limped into the bowl.
--With Oklahoma week 2 followed later by UGA and UF, Tennessee may well be 3-3 going into their game against Bama. A better team, but a 7 or 8 win season is still likely.
-Thoughts on UGA
--Good news: Jenkins and Floyd chose to come back. Bad news: The rest of the front 7 will not. Herrera and Wilson were both 110+ tackle players at LB, and the lack of any returning DL will have to hurt.
On offense, Georgia was 1st in the SEC in rushing last year, but only 9th in passing. (If you want to understand the UF/USC losses, that may be why. Both teams had consistent issues defending the pass, but UGA probably wasn't good enough to exploit it).
--The question will be if they can pass. Malcolm Mitchell is the only receiver on the roster with at least 100 yards receiving in his career. They will likely start a new QB in Ramsey. The running game may be good, but it's hard to win if you're one-dimensional.
-I'm curious to see how Southern Cal holds up this year. I've predicted that 2015 and 2016 would be rough for them just due to their numbers and the way probation shakes out. They should have about 75 players on scholarship, but most all of them are underclassmen. When that big group matures, they may be great, but national title talk for an 8-4 team from last year may be pretty premature.
-I will be really interested in watching the Ohio-State versus VT game on Monday. Ohio State may have the revenge factor, but they will be out their top 4 receivers, and VT should have a top 5 defense. It gets hard to move the ball when you're on your #5, #6, and #7 guys. Otherwise, Ohio State really does look legit. You can't forget that college football is /not/ a balanced sport. Sometimes, there is a team that's just absurdly good. Ohio State is such a team, and it's all about focus.
This post was edited on 8/31/15 at 4:52 pm
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