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re: Bama vs Wisconsin football stuff (it's game week boys and girls!)
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:50 pm to taylormade
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:50 pm to taylormade
-A couple points on Wisconsin:
--Here's a decent note for comparison: LSU put up 24 points on Wisconsin in the season opener. LSU played 3 other ranked teams, and the most they scored in those games was 13 (us in OT).
--As I tried to note in the lead-up to the playoff last year, the Big Ten was Pac-12 like in how tOSU was on another planet versus the rest of the conference. The B1G is not back; tOSU is back. The B1G had maybe 2 quality teams in tOSU and MSU, and the rest performed predictably poorly in the bowls.
--As a result, Wisconsin played ONLY 2 teams that finished in the top 25. Auburn and tOSU. Their win (Auburn) was against a borderline top-25 team that was badly depleted. The loss (tOSU) was awful.
--Knock on wood a bit, but I'm not sure that they're really all that good. Their OL lost 3/5 starters, and is a bit banged up. They lost 3/5 leading tacklers, and 3/5 leading receivers.
--Defensively, they are very aggressive, so look for a lot of pressure against our new quarterback. However, they only had 6 interceptions last season, which was 112th nationally, so I'm not sure if they're really going to be able to generate turnovers.
--Considering the increase of athleticism on our offensive line, which really limited our screen game last year, I expect a lot more screens and misdirection to try to take advantage of their aggression.
-Thoughts on Texas A&M
--TAM is a team that just isn't getting much love, and it's probably for good reason. After starting with a bang, it's been nothing but downhill.
--At this point, I have real questions as to whether Sumlin's system, which has a strong focus on a downfield passing game and the inside run, can really succeed without a stellar offensive line.
--On the same note, I will forever hold that the 2012 Texas A&M team underachieved. They had three 1st round OTs, a 2nd round pick at RB, a 1st round pick at QB, a first round pick at WR, and Swopes (who failed medically to make the NFL). The defense, though not as good as ours, was solid. But that team had -no business- losing twice before they played us.
--(For the record, the 2012 TAM line, with the #2, #6, #21, and #152 picks, and Mike Matthews still to go, was probably actually better than ours that year).
-Thoughts on LSU
--I agree with Phil Steele on this one: LSU is an overlooked national title contender. The line is solid and the receivers are elite. Their weakness last year (which I predicted in detail in before the season) was a complete lack of any experience in the interior of their defense. (By the way, it really makes the secondary look better when teams don't /need/ to throw). However, as we experienced late in the year, those guys didn't stay young forever.
--Another factor is recruiting. Recruiting is the best predictor of success, and for a while there, LSU was really struggling:
2010- 8
2011- 8
2012- 14
--But, lately, they've turned it around:
2013- 6
2014- 2
2015- 5
--Point being, yes, they have losses, but their recruiting is back at an elite level. The talent level at LSU has to make them a dark horse contender by default.
--HOWEVER, their losses /are/ pretty bad. Looking up their defensive leaders, it was easier to figure out who's coming back than leaving. On defense, they lose 6/10 leading tacklers. Only nos. 2, 6, 8, and 9 return. Combine that with some of the worst quarterback play I have ever seen at a top-tier school (Jennings was #86 in QBR... behind Cole Stoudt and Devin Gardner), and you see why people aren't exactly gung-ho.
--It all depends on the QB. If that doesn't improve, this is another 7-8 win team. If it does, all bets are off.
--Here's a decent note for comparison: LSU put up 24 points on Wisconsin in the season opener. LSU played 3 other ranked teams, and the most they scored in those games was 13 (us in OT).
--As I tried to note in the lead-up to the playoff last year, the Big Ten was Pac-12 like in how tOSU was on another planet versus the rest of the conference. The B1G is not back; tOSU is back. The B1G had maybe 2 quality teams in tOSU and MSU, and the rest performed predictably poorly in the bowls.
--As a result, Wisconsin played ONLY 2 teams that finished in the top 25. Auburn and tOSU. Their win (Auburn) was against a borderline top-25 team that was badly depleted. The loss (tOSU) was awful.
--Knock on wood a bit, but I'm not sure that they're really all that good. Their OL lost 3/5 starters, and is a bit banged up. They lost 3/5 leading tacklers, and 3/5 leading receivers.
--Defensively, they are very aggressive, so look for a lot of pressure against our new quarterback. However, they only had 6 interceptions last season, which was 112th nationally, so I'm not sure if they're really going to be able to generate turnovers.
--Considering the increase of athleticism on our offensive line, which really limited our screen game last year, I expect a lot more screens and misdirection to try to take advantage of their aggression.
-Thoughts on Texas A&M
--TAM is a team that just isn't getting much love, and it's probably for good reason. After starting with a bang, it's been nothing but downhill.
--At this point, I have real questions as to whether Sumlin's system, which has a strong focus on a downfield passing game and the inside run, can really succeed without a stellar offensive line.
--On the same note, I will forever hold that the 2012 Texas A&M team underachieved. They had three 1st round OTs, a 2nd round pick at RB, a 1st round pick at QB, a first round pick at WR, and Swopes (who failed medically to make the NFL). The defense, though not as good as ours, was solid. But that team had -no business- losing twice before they played us.
--(For the record, the 2012 TAM line, with the #2, #6, #21, and #152 picks, and Mike Matthews still to go, was probably actually better than ours that year).
-Thoughts on LSU
--I agree with Phil Steele on this one: LSU is an overlooked national title contender. The line is solid and the receivers are elite. Their weakness last year (which I predicted in detail in before the season) was a complete lack of any experience in the interior of their defense. (By the way, it really makes the secondary look better when teams don't /need/ to throw). However, as we experienced late in the year, those guys didn't stay young forever.
--Another factor is recruiting. Recruiting is the best predictor of success, and for a while there, LSU was really struggling:
2010- 8
2011- 8
2012- 14
--But, lately, they've turned it around:
2013- 6
2014- 2
2015- 5
--Point being, yes, they have losses, but their recruiting is back at an elite level. The talent level at LSU has to make them a dark horse contender by default.
--HOWEVER, their losses /are/ pretty bad. Looking up their defensive leaders, it was easier to figure out who's coming back than leaving. On defense, they lose 6/10 leading tacklers. Only nos. 2, 6, 8, and 9 return. Combine that with some of the worst quarterback play I have ever seen at a top-tier school (Jennings was #86 in QBR... behind Cole Stoudt and Devin Gardner), and you see why people aren't exactly gung-ho.
--It all depends on the QB. If that doesn't improve, this is another 7-8 win team. If it does, all bets are off.
This post was edited on 8/31/15 at 4:51 pm
1
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:50 pm to taylormade
-Thoughts on Auburn:
--Auburn is all about the offense. Yeah, they have Muschamp, but it's not like Ellis Johnson was considered a loser (nor Vangorder before him). The first issue is simply talent. Auburn, while having good defensive lines, has been very poor in the back 7. I believe the other side has been practice style. Many overlook the fact that Malzahn prefers to practice with minimal contact, and with a focus on offensive tempo. That has to make it hard for the defense to get quality reps, and I think it shows on the field.
--If I were an Auburn fan, my concern would be on a running game that's losing a lot of crucial pieces. Their 2013 team used Prosch as a lead blocker for a powerful zone running game. In 2014, Uzomah and Fulse tepped up into h-back roles, and they continued their sweep game. Now, without Uzomah, Fulse, Grant, Marshall, or Artis-Payne, all the pieces of the power zone play are gone. Everyone looks at Marshall, but Uzomah, Fulse, and Grant are just as importantt. Uzomah and Fulse allowed Auburn to line up in a wide variety of formation to leverage good pass catchers as blockers. It's tough on the defender lined up opposite of Uzomah and Fulse, as they were either too small for the run or too big for the pass. Plus, Auburn could run anything from a 4-wide to a 2-TE set from the same personnel.
--This year, Auburn has only freshmen to use at FB. Malzahn himself noted in camp that the position was one of his greatest worries. Add the loss of your two leading rushers, and Auburn (who ran that power zone over and over and over the last two years) will need a new bag of tricks.
--This gets to the passing game. Johnson may be a great passer. He may not be. But I do know that he only has one returning starter at WR in Duke, and (many miss this) Louis will be needed to fill Corey Grant's role as a sweep back if they want to keep that part of their playbook. Johnson may well be better, and not have much to show for it.
--Take these two QBs:
QB1 - Soph - 36/48 (75%) 410 yards 7 TDs 0 INTs
QB2 - Soph - 28/37 (76%) 436 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs
--QB1? John Brantley in 2009. Heralded as the next big thing going into 2010 after backing up (and starting for an injured) Tim Tebow in 2009. However, Brantley would ultimately come to be known generally as a failure.
--The point here is that you just can't say anything, one way or another, until the pads start popping on a big stage. I'm not going to criticize Johnson, as I haven't seen him, but I strongly caution against those praising him, because you haven't seen him either. Even if he /is/ better, I doubt it shows too much for the reasons above.
--All that said, they should be more talented on defense. The return of Lawson, addition of Matthews at S, and maturity of their LBs should pay dividends. However, the loss of Wright, Blackson and Bradley really hurts their depth, and they will likely be susceptible against the run. Further, don't overlook that they lost 3/6 in their nickel. The media tends to miss when this happens... Therezie (the "Star") isn't part of the 4-3, so his loss doesn't show up on a lot of sheets (Athlon only shows 2 CBs, for example). But, in a nickel, they have minimal depth, and they may well have to start a freshman.
--For those of you looking for Auburn to lose to Louisville, personally, I wouldn't bother. Louisville lost as many players to the draft last year as they had the prior 7 years /combined/. They are just totally depleted. For example, they lost 7 of their top 9 receivers. Mentally prepare yourself for Auburn to thump them, and to hear a lot of chest thumping as a result. If Auburn doesn't thump them, it's a REALLY bad sign.
-Thoughts on Arkansas
--I'm just not that high on these guys.
--They have a good offensive line and a strong run game, but they probably will feel the loss of Williams pretty badly.
--Offensively, I just don't see them getting much better. Allen improved tremendously last year, but 2/3 leading receivers were tight ends, a sure sign that you aren't running a /real/ passing game. They just don't have any receivers you're scared of, and that's not a good thing in this league.
--The bigger issue is on defense. Arkansas had a hot end to last year shutting out LSU and Ole Miss. Much of that was due to Arkansas's disruptive front, with 3 players (Flowers, Philon, and Spaight) in double digit TFL. None return.
--Everyone seems to be overlooking the loss of Spaight. He has 127 tackles last year, about double anyone else. To put it in perspective, CJ Mosley had 107 in 2012. Considering the poor recruiting Arkansas had under Petrino and Smith, I think their defense may take a step back.
--If their defense takes a step back, (considering the injury to Williams) I doubt the offense can keep pace.
--Auburn is all about the offense. Yeah, they have Muschamp, but it's not like Ellis Johnson was considered a loser (nor Vangorder before him). The first issue is simply talent. Auburn, while having good defensive lines, has been very poor in the back 7. I believe the other side has been practice style. Many overlook the fact that Malzahn prefers to practice with minimal contact, and with a focus on offensive tempo. That has to make it hard for the defense to get quality reps, and I think it shows on the field.
--If I were an Auburn fan, my concern would be on a running game that's losing a lot of crucial pieces. Their 2013 team used Prosch as a lead blocker for a powerful zone running game. In 2014, Uzomah and Fulse tepped up into h-back roles, and they continued their sweep game. Now, without Uzomah, Fulse, Grant, Marshall, or Artis-Payne, all the pieces of the power zone play are gone. Everyone looks at Marshall, but Uzomah, Fulse, and Grant are just as importantt. Uzomah and Fulse allowed Auburn to line up in a wide variety of formation to leverage good pass catchers as blockers. It's tough on the defender lined up opposite of Uzomah and Fulse, as they were either too small for the run or too big for the pass. Plus, Auburn could run anything from a 4-wide to a 2-TE set from the same personnel.
--This year, Auburn has only freshmen to use at FB. Malzahn himself noted in camp that the position was one of his greatest worries. Add the loss of your two leading rushers, and Auburn (who ran that power zone over and over and over the last two years) will need a new bag of tricks.
--This gets to the passing game. Johnson may be a great passer. He may not be. But I do know that he only has one returning starter at WR in Duke, and (many miss this) Louis will be needed to fill Corey Grant's role as a sweep back if they want to keep that part of their playbook. Johnson may well be better, and not have much to show for it.
--Take these two QBs:
QB1 - Soph - 36/48 (75%) 410 yards 7 TDs 0 INTs
QB2 - Soph - 28/37 (76%) 436 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs
--QB1? John Brantley in 2009. Heralded as the next big thing going into 2010 after backing up (and starting for an injured) Tim Tebow in 2009. However, Brantley would ultimately come to be known generally as a failure.
--The point here is that you just can't say anything, one way or another, until the pads start popping on a big stage. I'm not going to criticize Johnson, as I haven't seen him, but I strongly caution against those praising him, because you haven't seen him either. Even if he /is/ better, I doubt it shows too much for the reasons above.
--All that said, they should be more talented on defense. The return of Lawson, addition of Matthews at S, and maturity of their LBs should pay dividends. However, the loss of Wright, Blackson and Bradley really hurts their depth, and they will likely be susceptible against the run. Further, don't overlook that they lost 3/6 in their nickel. The media tends to miss when this happens... Therezie (the "Star") isn't part of the 4-3, so his loss doesn't show up on a lot of sheets (Athlon only shows 2 CBs, for example). But, in a nickel, they have minimal depth, and they may well have to start a freshman.
--For those of you looking for Auburn to lose to Louisville, personally, I wouldn't bother. Louisville lost as many players to the draft last year as they had the prior 7 years /combined/. They are just totally depleted. For example, they lost 7 of their top 9 receivers. Mentally prepare yourself for Auburn to thump them, and to hear a lot of chest thumping as a result. If Auburn doesn't thump them, it's a REALLY bad sign.
-Thoughts on Arkansas
--I'm just not that high on these guys.
--They have a good offensive line and a strong run game, but they probably will feel the loss of Williams pretty badly.
--Offensively, I just don't see them getting much better. Allen improved tremendously last year, but 2/3 leading receivers were tight ends, a sure sign that you aren't running a /real/ passing game. They just don't have any receivers you're scared of, and that's not a good thing in this league.
--The bigger issue is on defense. Arkansas had a hot end to last year shutting out LSU and Ole Miss. Much of that was due to Arkansas's disruptive front, with 3 players (Flowers, Philon, and Spaight) in double digit TFL. None return.
--Everyone seems to be overlooking the loss of Spaight. He has 127 tackles last year, about double anyone else. To put it in perspective, CJ Mosley had 107 in 2012. Considering the poor recruiting Arkansas had under Petrino and Smith, I think their defense may take a step back.
--If their defense takes a step back, (considering the injury to Williams) I doubt the offense can keep pace.
This post was edited on 8/31/15 at 4:52 pm
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