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re: Bama vs Wisconsin football stuff (it's game week boys and girls!)
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:50 pm to Alahunter
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:50 pm to Alahunter
from BOL guy
I wasn't planning to do much of anything, but a couple of people (on BOL and in person) asked me to, so here's what I got. Keep in mind, this is a for-fun sort of rambling analysis; I'm a numbers guy, and that doesn't really translate to the preseason. Anyway, here are my musings (SEC focused) for the upcoming season.
-A few thoughts on the quarterback battle:
--First, I'm not the right person to give any deep analysis, as I haven't seen a single snap in fall camp. What I can try to do is comment a bit on quarterbacking in general.
--The first thing I'll note is that it's quite possible to get excellent production from an inconsistent quarterback with a live arm. Jarrett Lee was a guy who couldn't read a defense to save his life. But, in 2011, LSU used Lee's strong arm to create a powerful play-action passing game off the run. Lee's 152 QBR from 2011 would have just edged out Dak Prescott from this past season.
--Second, there's a bit of a false dichotomy in terms of youth vs. experience going around. Some people talk about "play to win today," others, "play the new guy, take your lumps this year." But, there's a third option: play the guy who will win in October. JT Barrett was less than stellar last year in week 2 versus Virginia Tech, but, come the end of the season, he was phenomenal. Though I expect Coker to start for Wisconsin, the staff has to be giving some serious thought to who will be the best player to get us through our stretch run in October.
--Finally, expect the offense to change. Something we forget is that we opened the season as a -huddling- tempo team. Kiffin prefers to run the huddle, have pro-style, complicated plays, and ask the quarterback to check a bit. Despite how much you sometimes here "Sims was perfect for what they did," the truth was, Kiffin made what we did perfect for Sims. But I would expect to see some very different things stylistically this year, especially if we have an inconsistent, big-armed quarterback (see Lee above). The play card experiment was one thing, but, considering our strengths (the run and defense), I expect us to take the tempo back down a little more and play some power football.
--My general belief over the past few years (dating back to 2013) is that our corner play has been our Achilles heel. However, in my humble opinion, it's often been an issue of size more than technique. In the opener, Sylve gave us quality reps, but just couldn't high point the ball over the towering White. Then, against Mizzou, our corners were again thrown past. Further, a huge key to several losses (Oklahoma and Auburn in 2013, for example) it has been an inability to stop the /run/ that has killed us on the perimeter. Sylve is just too small, and Smith has really struggled to get off blocks. Unfortunately, the taller options (Brown and Jackson) have been a liability deep. If Humphrey and Fitzpatrick step up, I feel it will be the increase in size against the pass and especially against the run that will make the biggest impact.
--To toot my own horn a bit, I mentioned in the runup to last year that Cyrus compared favorably to the progression Javy took in his career. Here's to hoping it continues, and Cyrus ends up an all-star player.
I wasn't planning to do much of anything, but a couple of people (on BOL and in person) asked me to, so here's what I got. Keep in mind, this is a for-fun sort of rambling analysis; I'm a numbers guy, and that doesn't really translate to the preseason. Anyway, here are my musings (SEC focused) for the upcoming season.
-A few thoughts on the quarterback battle:
--First, I'm not the right person to give any deep analysis, as I haven't seen a single snap in fall camp. What I can try to do is comment a bit on quarterbacking in general.
--The first thing I'll note is that it's quite possible to get excellent production from an inconsistent quarterback with a live arm. Jarrett Lee was a guy who couldn't read a defense to save his life. But, in 2011, LSU used Lee's strong arm to create a powerful play-action passing game off the run. Lee's 152 QBR from 2011 would have just edged out Dak Prescott from this past season.
--Second, there's a bit of a false dichotomy in terms of youth vs. experience going around. Some people talk about "play to win today," others, "play the new guy, take your lumps this year." But, there's a third option: play the guy who will win in October. JT Barrett was less than stellar last year in week 2 versus Virginia Tech, but, come the end of the season, he was phenomenal. Though I expect Coker to start for Wisconsin, the staff has to be giving some serious thought to who will be the best player to get us through our stretch run in October.
--Finally, expect the offense to change. Something we forget is that we opened the season as a -huddling- tempo team. Kiffin prefers to run the huddle, have pro-style, complicated plays, and ask the quarterback to check a bit. Despite how much you sometimes here "Sims was perfect for what they did," the truth was, Kiffin made what we did perfect for Sims. But I would expect to see some very different things stylistically this year, especially if we have an inconsistent, big-armed quarterback (see Lee above). The play card experiment was one thing, but, considering our strengths (the run and defense), I expect us to take the tempo back down a little more and play some power football.
--My general belief over the past few years (dating back to 2013) is that our corner play has been our Achilles heel. However, in my humble opinion, it's often been an issue of size more than technique. In the opener, Sylve gave us quality reps, but just couldn't high point the ball over the towering White. Then, against Mizzou, our corners were again thrown past. Further, a huge key to several losses (Oklahoma and Auburn in 2013, for example) it has been an inability to stop the /run/ that has killed us on the perimeter. Sylve is just too small, and Smith has really struggled to get off blocks. Unfortunately, the taller options (Brown and Jackson) have been a liability deep. If Humphrey and Fitzpatrick step up, I feel it will be the increase in size against the pass and especially against the run that will make the biggest impact.
--To toot my own horn a bit, I mentioned in the runup to last year that Cyrus compared favorably to the progression Javy took in his career. Here's to hoping it continues, and Cyrus ends up an all-star player.
1
Posted on 8/31/15 at 4:50 pm to taylormade
-A couple points on Wisconsin:
--Here's a decent note for comparison: LSU put up 24 points on Wisconsin in the season opener. LSU played 3 other ranked teams, and the most they scored in those games was 13 (us in OT).
--As I tried to note in the lead-up to the playoff last year, the Big Ten was Pac-12 like in how tOSU was on another planet versus the rest of the conference. The B1G is not back; tOSU is back. The B1G had maybe 2 quality teams in tOSU and MSU, and the rest performed predictably poorly in the bowls.
--As a result, Wisconsin played ONLY 2 teams that finished in the top 25. Auburn and tOSU. Their win (Auburn) was against a borderline top-25 team that was badly depleted. The loss (tOSU) was awful.
--Knock on wood a bit, but I'm not sure that they're really all that good. Their OL lost 3/5 starters, and is a bit banged up. They lost 3/5 leading tacklers, and 3/5 leading receivers.
--Defensively, they are very aggressive, so look for a lot of pressure against our new quarterback. However, they only had 6 interceptions last season, which was 112th nationally, so I'm not sure if they're really going to be able to generate turnovers.
--Considering the increase of athleticism on our offensive line, which really limited our screen game last year, I expect a lot more screens and misdirection to try to take advantage of their aggression.
-Thoughts on Texas A&M
--TAM is a team that just isn't getting much love, and it's probably for good reason. After starting with a bang, it's been nothing but downhill.
--At this point, I have real questions as to whether Sumlin's system, which has a strong focus on a downfield passing game and the inside run, can really succeed without a stellar offensive line.
--On the same note, I will forever hold that the 2012 Texas A&M team underachieved. They had three 1st round OTs, a 2nd round pick at RB, a 1st round pick at QB, a first round pick at WR, and Swopes (who failed medically to make the NFL). The defense, though not as good as ours, was solid. But that team had -no business- losing twice before they played us.
--(For the record, the 2012 TAM line, with the #2, #6, #21, and #152 picks, and Mike Matthews still to go, was probably actually better than ours that year).
-Thoughts on LSU
--I agree with Phil Steele on this one: LSU is an overlooked national title contender. The line is solid and the receivers are elite. Their weakness last year (which I predicted in detail in before the season) was a complete lack of any experience in the interior of their defense. (By the way, it really makes the secondary look better when teams don't /need/ to throw). However, as we experienced late in the year, those guys didn't stay young forever.
--Another factor is recruiting. Recruiting is the best predictor of success, and for a while there, LSU was really struggling:
2010- 8
2011- 8
2012- 14
--But, lately, they've turned it around:
2013- 6
2014- 2
2015- 5
--Point being, yes, they have losses, but their recruiting is back at an elite level. The talent level at LSU has to make them a dark horse contender by default.
--HOWEVER, their losses /are/ pretty bad. Looking up their defensive leaders, it was easier to figure out who's coming back than leaving. On defense, they lose 6/10 leading tacklers. Only nos. 2, 6, 8, and 9 return. Combine that with some of the worst quarterback play I have ever seen at a top-tier school (Jennings was #86 in QBR... behind Cole Stoudt and Devin Gardner), and you see why people aren't exactly gung-ho.
--It all depends on the QB. If that doesn't improve, this is another 7-8 win team. If it does, all bets are off.
--Here's a decent note for comparison: LSU put up 24 points on Wisconsin in the season opener. LSU played 3 other ranked teams, and the most they scored in those games was 13 (us in OT).
--As I tried to note in the lead-up to the playoff last year, the Big Ten was Pac-12 like in how tOSU was on another planet versus the rest of the conference. The B1G is not back; tOSU is back. The B1G had maybe 2 quality teams in tOSU and MSU, and the rest performed predictably poorly in the bowls.
--As a result, Wisconsin played ONLY 2 teams that finished in the top 25. Auburn and tOSU. Their win (Auburn) was against a borderline top-25 team that was badly depleted. The loss (tOSU) was awful.
--Knock on wood a bit, but I'm not sure that they're really all that good. Their OL lost 3/5 starters, and is a bit banged up. They lost 3/5 leading tacklers, and 3/5 leading receivers.
--Defensively, they are very aggressive, so look for a lot of pressure against our new quarterback. However, they only had 6 interceptions last season, which was 112th nationally, so I'm not sure if they're really going to be able to generate turnovers.
--Considering the increase of athleticism on our offensive line, which really limited our screen game last year, I expect a lot more screens and misdirection to try to take advantage of their aggression.
-Thoughts on Texas A&M
--TAM is a team that just isn't getting much love, and it's probably for good reason. After starting with a bang, it's been nothing but downhill.
--At this point, I have real questions as to whether Sumlin's system, which has a strong focus on a downfield passing game and the inside run, can really succeed without a stellar offensive line.
--On the same note, I will forever hold that the 2012 Texas A&M team underachieved. They had three 1st round OTs, a 2nd round pick at RB, a 1st round pick at QB, a first round pick at WR, and Swopes (who failed medically to make the NFL). The defense, though not as good as ours, was solid. But that team had -no business- losing twice before they played us.
--(For the record, the 2012 TAM line, with the #2, #6, #21, and #152 picks, and Mike Matthews still to go, was probably actually better than ours that year).
-Thoughts on LSU
--I agree with Phil Steele on this one: LSU is an overlooked national title contender. The line is solid and the receivers are elite. Their weakness last year (which I predicted in detail in before the season) was a complete lack of any experience in the interior of their defense. (By the way, it really makes the secondary look better when teams don't /need/ to throw). However, as we experienced late in the year, those guys didn't stay young forever.
--Another factor is recruiting. Recruiting is the best predictor of success, and for a while there, LSU was really struggling:
2010- 8
2011- 8
2012- 14
--But, lately, they've turned it around:
2013- 6
2014- 2
2015- 5
--Point being, yes, they have losses, but their recruiting is back at an elite level. The talent level at LSU has to make them a dark horse contender by default.
--HOWEVER, their losses /are/ pretty bad. Looking up their defensive leaders, it was easier to figure out who's coming back than leaving. On defense, they lose 6/10 leading tacklers. Only nos. 2, 6, 8, and 9 return. Combine that with some of the worst quarterback play I have ever seen at a top-tier school (Jennings was #86 in QBR... behind Cole Stoudt and Devin Gardner), and you see why people aren't exactly gung-ho.
--It all depends on the QB. If that doesn't improve, this is another 7-8 win team. If it does, all bets are off.
This post was edited on 8/31/15 at 4:51 pm
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