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Comparing conferences: A different look
Posted on 8/4/15 at 12:35 am
Posted on 8/4/15 at 12:35 am
A lot of comparing conferences going on and several ways people are doing it. SOS, OOC records, bowl records, etc. all are valid and a good place to look, but I wanted to take different view and look at program ceilings within each conference. There has been a lot of blowback towards the SEC and it's expected. I'm sure other conferences get tired of hearing about how great the SEC is constantly. Let's take a look.
National Title Contenders: Self explanatory. Teams that in any given year can win it all with the right coach in place.
ACC
Florida St
Big 10
Ohio St.
Michigan
Penn St
Big 12
Oklahoma
Texas
Pac 12
USC
Oregon (being generous)
SEC
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
A rung below: teams that would need several breaks to actually win it all, but do have the ability to get right to the brink. Win double digit games, major bowls etc
ACC
Clemson
Miami (fell from NC contender)
Louisville (questionable)
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech (slipping)
Big 10
Wisconsin
Michigan St
Nebraska (fell from NC contender)
Big 12
Baylor
TCU
KState
Pac 12
Stanford
UCLA
Arizona ST
SEC
Arkansas
Mizzou
South Carolina
aTm (could make an argument for rung above)
Bowl teams- teams that haven't been really bad or really good. Mostly mired in mediocrity. Sometimes a tick above, sometimes below. May be on the upswing.
ACC
Duke (recent entry into this category)
Pitt
NC
NC St
Virginia
Big 10
Minnesota
Iowa
Maryland
Big 12
Oklahoma St
West Virginia
Pac 12
Washington
Arizona
Utah
Oregon St
Cal
SEC
Ole Miss (might jump to the next rung)
Miss St
Pushovers- pretty much get counted as an auto win by any teams in the above category. Accomplishment just to make any bowl game, usually have losing seasons.
ACC
Wake
BC
Cuse
Big 10
Indiana (yeah, I know)
Illinois
Purdue
Rutgers
Northwestern
Big 12
Kansas
Iowa St
Pac 12
Washington St
Colorado (have really taken a nose dive)
SEC
Vandy
Kentucky (rising imo, can jump a rung this year)
Some overall thoughts. Yeah, I'm not telling you anything you didn't know. The SEC is the best, clearly. However, the fact of how I close it really is is kind of mind boggling. The SEC has at least double the amount of NC caliber programs as any other conference. That's crazy. Also, the depth of the league is unrivaled. There is really only one truly awful team in the conference and the rest have multiple cakewalks. The teams just below the top are also as good or better than any other conference.
The ACC is a joke.
The Big 10 is the closest approximation of the SECs strength, but they have less elite programs and more shitty/mediocre ones.
The Big 12 isn't much better than the ACC at this point. Their two blue bloods are not at that level currently and the best teams in that conference are upstarts and lack staying power. Lots of mediocrity and the absolute worst current P5 program resides here.
Pac 12 has an argument for #2 as well. Solid numbers at the top and good depth.
I determined all groupings by recent history to try and get a current view. Besides the NC contenders as blue bloods just don't die, with only a few exceptions.
National Title Contenders: Self explanatory. Teams that in any given year can win it all with the right coach in place.
ACC
Florida St
Big 10
Ohio St.
Michigan
Penn St
Big 12
Oklahoma
Texas
Pac 12
USC
Oregon (being generous)
SEC
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
A rung below: teams that would need several breaks to actually win it all, but do have the ability to get right to the brink. Win double digit games, major bowls etc
ACC
Clemson
Miami (fell from NC contender)
Louisville (questionable)
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech (slipping)
Big 10
Wisconsin
Michigan St
Nebraska (fell from NC contender)
Big 12
Baylor
TCU
KState
Pac 12
Stanford
UCLA
Arizona ST
SEC
Arkansas
Mizzou
South Carolina
aTm (could make an argument for rung above)
Bowl teams- teams that haven't been really bad or really good. Mostly mired in mediocrity. Sometimes a tick above, sometimes below. May be on the upswing.
ACC
Duke (recent entry into this category)
Pitt
NC
NC St
Virginia
Big 10
Minnesota
Iowa
Maryland
Big 12
Oklahoma St
West Virginia
Pac 12
Washington
Arizona
Utah
Oregon St
Cal
SEC
Ole Miss (might jump to the next rung)
Miss St
Pushovers- pretty much get counted as an auto win by any teams in the above category. Accomplishment just to make any bowl game, usually have losing seasons.
ACC
Wake
BC
Cuse
Big 10
Indiana (yeah, I know)
Illinois
Purdue
Rutgers
Northwestern
Big 12
Kansas
Iowa St
Pac 12
Washington St
Colorado (have really taken a nose dive)
SEC
Vandy
Kentucky (rising imo, can jump a rung this year)
Some overall thoughts. Yeah, I'm not telling you anything you didn't know. The SEC is the best, clearly. However, the fact of how I close it really is is kind of mind boggling. The SEC has at least double the amount of NC caliber programs as any other conference. That's crazy. Also, the depth of the league is unrivaled. There is really only one truly awful team in the conference and the rest have multiple cakewalks. The teams just below the top are also as good or better than any other conference.
The ACC is a joke.
The Big 10 is the closest approximation of the SECs strength, but they have less elite programs and more shitty/mediocre ones.
The Big 12 isn't much better than the ACC at this point. Their two blue bloods are not at that level currently and the best teams in that conference are upstarts and lack staying power. Lots of mediocrity and the absolute worst current P5 program resides here.
Pac 12 has an argument for #2 as well. Solid numbers at the top and good depth.
I determined all groupings by recent history to try and get a current view. Besides the NC contenders as blue bloods just don't die, with only a few exceptions.
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Posted on 8/4/15 at 12:37 am to JesusQuintana
I would put Miami up there with FSU. Clemson as well.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 12:40 am to JesusQuintana
I may be drunk, but it seems like you missed #HailState... 
ETA: nvm I'm drunk
ETA: nvm I'm drunk
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 12:48 am
Posted on 8/4/15 at 12:48 am to JesusQuintana
I'd put Georgia Tech in the rung below.
Their only conference title this millennium was vacated and for the most part they stick to the middle of the road in terms of record. Every 5-6 years they go over 10 wins.
Their only conference title this millennium was vacated and for the most part they stick to the middle of the road in terms of record. Every 5-6 years they go over 10 wins.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 12:49 am to JesusQuintana
I'm sure you're mostly accurate, but I stopped reading when you put Tennessee in the category of teams that can win it all any given year. Their time is past...for example, if you put Tennessee in that category, why didn't you include Nebraska?
Posted on 8/4/15 at 12:52 am to JesusQuintana
why is UGA on there?
Posted on 8/4/15 at 1:35 am to JesusQuintana
If you have Tennessee as a contender, than Nebraska should be up there. Miami as well. Otherwise, not bad. Michigan State could creep up to contender status soon.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:55 am to JesusQuintana
Here's a stone cold hard fact.
Every National Champion since 2002 has had at least one top five recruiting class, as rated by Rivals (2002-2010) or 247 Sports (2011-present)
2002 - Ohio State (#5 class in 2002)
2003 - LSU (#1 class in 2003)
2004 - *USC (#3 class in 2003, #1 class in 2004)
2005 - Texas (#1 class in 2002)
2006 - Florida (#2 class in 2003, #2 class in 2006)
2007 - LSU (#2 class in 2004, #4 class in 2007)
2008 - Florida (#2 class in 2006, #1 class in 2007, #3 class in 2008)
2009 - Alabama (#1 class in 2008, #1 class in 2009)
2010 - Auburn (#4 class in 2010)
2011 - Alabama (#1 class in 2008, #1 class in 2009, #5 class in 2010, #1 class in 2011)
2012 - Alabama (#1 class in 2009, #5 class in 2010, #1 class in 2011, #1 class in 2012)
2013 - Florida State (#2 class in 2011, #3 class in 2012)
2014 - Ohio State (#5 class in 2012, #2 class in 2013, #3 class in 2014)
Based on that, here are the teams that can say they have a shot in 2015 if this trend continues:
Alabama (#1 2012, #1 2013, #1 2014, #1 2015)
Texas (#2 2012)
Florida (#3 2012, #3 2013)
Florida State (#4 2012, #4 2014, #3 2015)
Ohio State (#5 2012, #2 2013, #3 2014)
Michigan (#4 2013)
Notre Dame (#5 2013)
LSU (#2 2014, #5 2015)
Texas A&M (#5 2014)
USC (#2 2015)
Tennessee (#4 2015)
Or, to compare conferences:
SEC - 5 contenders
Big Ten - 2 contenders
PAC 12 - 1 contender
Big XII - 1 contender
Independents - 1 contender
Let's be clear of the difference between making the playoffs and winning the title.
Every National Champion since 2002 has had at least one top five recruiting class, as rated by Rivals (2002-2010) or 247 Sports (2011-present)
2002 - Ohio State (#5 class in 2002)
2003 - LSU (#1 class in 2003)
2004 - *USC (#3 class in 2003, #1 class in 2004)
2005 - Texas (#1 class in 2002)
2006 - Florida (#2 class in 2003, #2 class in 2006)
2007 - LSU (#2 class in 2004, #4 class in 2007)
2008 - Florida (#2 class in 2006, #1 class in 2007, #3 class in 2008)
2009 - Alabama (#1 class in 2008, #1 class in 2009)
2010 - Auburn (#4 class in 2010)
2011 - Alabama (#1 class in 2008, #1 class in 2009, #5 class in 2010, #1 class in 2011)
2012 - Alabama (#1 class in 2009, #5 class in 2010, #1 class in 2011, #1 class in 2012)
2013 - Florida State (#2 class in 2011, #3 class in 2012)
2014 - Ohio State (#5 class in 2012, #2 class in 2013, #3 class in 2014)
Based on that, here are the teams that can say they have a shot in 2015 if this trend continues:
Alabama (#1 2012, #1 2013, #1 2014, #1 2015)
Texas (#2 2012)
Florida (#3 2012, #3 2013)
Florida State (#4 2012, #4 2014, #3 2015)
Ohio State (#5 2012, #2 2013, #3 2014)
Michigan (#4 2013)
Notre Dame (#5 2013)
LSU (#2 2014, #5 2015)
Texas A&M (#5 2014)
USC (#2 2015)
Tennessee (#4 2015)
Or, to compare conferences:
SEC - 5 contenders
Big Ten - 2 contenders
PAC 12 - 1 contender
Big XII - 1 contender
Independents - 1 contender
Let's be clear of the difference between making the playoffs and winning the title.
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 2:58 am
Posted on 8/4/15 at 3:02 am to JesusQuintana
You forgot:
Big 12 - Texas Tech (bottom category. Was category 2 under Leach)
Big 12 - Texas Tech (bottom category. Was category 2 under Leach)
Posted on 8/4/15 at 3:12 am to JesusQuintana
My only question is why UT is in tier 1.
I mean a decade ago that would have made sense. But winning no more than 3 conference games in half a decade should automatically require a downgrade
I mean a decade ago that would have made sense. But winning no more than 3 conference games in half a decade should automatically require a downgrade
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 3:13 am
Posted on 8/4/15 at 4:24 am to JesusQuintana
If Tennessee is still a national contender, then Miami is as well.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 7:25 am to JesusQuintana
Very thourough and well thought-out post.
I pretty much agree with everything you wrote, except I think that, after watching last year unfold, with the right st of circumstances, any SEC team not named Vandy or Kentucky could win it all. Both MS schools were in the top 10 at one point last year, as well as every other SEC west team but Arkansas. In the east, everybody has been on the brink except vandy and ky.
12 of 14 SEC teams could win it all now or within a few years. That is why the SEC is so dominant. Oddly enough, that is why sports media is desparate to make a story out of the SEC's "fall" from the top. They are trying to keep interest alive in other non-SEC states.
But, I think treands are shifting in other conferences. The B1G large state schools in football states will stay strong,(PennSt, Ohio St,, Michigan, Mich St) while the smaller, private schools and state schools in non-football states will never get there (Indiana, Iowa, Illinois etc.)
By the same token, I expect USCw to have increasing difficulty, while the Arizona schools flurish.
The formula for future success appears to be:
1. Large Student body
2. Football state (lots of HS fooball talent)
3. Large following.
An example of on just falling short is Minnesota. It is a huge school with a large to potentially large following, but not much football in-state compared to others.
By this reasoning, there is absolutely no goddamn excuse for LSU to be anywhere but in the championship conversation every motherfrickig year. None. LSU has a ton of advantages.
I pretty much agree with everything you wrote, except I think that, after watching last year unfold, with the right st of circumstances, any SEC team not named Vandy or Kentucky could win it all. Both MS schools were in the top 10 at one point last year, as well as every other SEC west team but Arkansas. In the east, everybody has been on the brink except vandy and ky.
12 of 14 SEC teams could win it all now or within a few years. That is why the SEC is so dominant. Oddly enough, that is why sports media is desparate to make a story out of the SEC's "fall" from the top. They are trying to keep interest alive in other non-SEC states.
But, I think treands are shifting in other conferences. The B1G large state schools in football states will stay strong,(PennSt, Ohio St,, Michigan, Mich St) while the smaller, private schools and state schools in non-football states will never get there (Indiana, Iowa, Illinois etc.)
By the same token, I expect USCw to have increasing difficulty, while the Arizona schools flurish.
The formula for future success appears to be:
1. Large Student body
2. Football state (lots of HS fooball talent)
3. Large following.
An example of on just falling short is Minnesota. It is a huge school with a large to potentially large following, but not much football in-state compared to others.
By this reasoning, there is absolutely no goddamn excuse for LSU to be anywhere but in the championship conversation every motherfrickig year. None. LSU has a ton of advantages.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 7:47 am to JesusQuintana
I don't know if I agree with it but nice job anyway.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 10:02 am to JesusQuintana
I like this list overall but here are a few viewpoints..
Something doesn't sit right with me having Penn State in Tier 1 for some reason. Yes, James Franklin is a good (some would say great coach) but I don't think PSU is the same program it was during the height. But I understand the point being that they just need the right coach to contend. Got it. They can stay. (I would put 'teetering' by them)
Tennessee deserves to be up there for the same reason I presume Penn State is up there. They just need the right coach. Butch is recruiting extremely well and they have amazing facilities so if Jones can't deliver a title (or even get to the playoffs) in the next few years then maybe UTK should slip.. but for now, I agree with where they are.
I'll try to be unbiased (I'm also a UCLA fan) but I think UCLA could rise to tier 1. Jim Mora is proving that the right coach at UCLA can make them a contender. The Bruins are investing in facilities and having great success recruiting. But for now, I agree with where they are.. I would just put "rising" next to them. If Oregon can be elite, then eventually so can UCLA.
Something doesn't sit right with me having Penn State in Tier 1 for some reason. Yes, James Franklin is a good (some would say great coach) but I don't think PSU is the same program it was during the height. But I understand the point being that they just need the right coach to contend. Got it. They can stay. (I would put 'teetering' by them
) Tennessee deserves to be up there for the same reason I presume Penn State is up there. They just need the right coach. Butch is recruiting extremely well and they have amazing facilities so if Jones can't deliver a title (or even get to the playoffs) in the next few years then maybe UTK should slip.. but for now, I agree with where they are.
I'll try to be unbiased (I'm also a UCLA fan) but I think UCLA could rise to tier 1. Jim Mora is proving that the right coach at UCLA can make them a contender. The Bruins are investing in facilities and having great success recruiting. But for now, I agree with where they are.. I would just put "rising" next to them. If Oregon can be elite, then eventually so can UCLA.
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 10:03 am
Posted on 8/4/15 at 10:55 am to JesusQuintana
Not a bad list at all, didn't you have this one up a while back?
While I agree Texas A&M is a second tier school, as is Arkansas I will admit, people have been trying to nudge them into tier one contender status for a good long while and they haven't quite made it there yet and might very well never make it to the promised land.
Texas does produce a butt load of football talent yes, but the Aggies are fighting with every other in state school for that talent along with poachers from the neighboring states.
I'm not saying the Aggies suck or anything, I think they will continue to do just fine in the SEC, but I don't think they step into perennial powerhouse status any time soon if ever.
While I agree Texas A&M is a second tier school, as is Arkansas I will admit, people have been trying to nudge them into tier one contender status for a good long while and they haven't quite made it there yet and might very well never make it to the promised land.
Texas does produce a butt load of football talent yes, but the Aggies are fighting with every other in state school for that talent along with poachers from the neighboring states.
I'm not saying the Aggies suck or anything, I think they will continue to do just fine in the SEC, but I don't think they step into perennial powerhouse status any time soon if ever.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 10:58 am to JesusQuintana
quote:
aTm (could make an argument for rung above)
Based on what?
Posted on 8/4/15 at 11:05 am to JesusQuintana
quote:
Pushovers- pretty much get counted as an auto win by any teams in the above category. Accomplishment just to make any bowl game, usually have losing seasons. ACC Wake BC Cuse
BC is definitely not a pushover. Syracuse is typically at least average. Wake was a solid program for 5 years, only recently have they been awful.
quote:
National Title Contenders: Self explanatory. Teams that in any given year can win it all with the right coach in place
quote:
SEC Alabama Auburn LSU Tennessee Florida Georgia
Tenn is a huge stretch at this point. Not sure how you can Oregon is a stretch but have Tenn has national title contender.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 9:23 pm to JesusQuintana
There's only 4 programs that can win it with a good coach only. There are several others that can rent space for a few years when multiple things converge in their favor.
Posted on 8/5/15 at 4:36 am to JesusQuintana
Alabama
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Georgia
Auburn
Florida
Are all teams that in my opinion wouldn't surprise me representing the SEC in the playoffs in the near future. Even though a few of these teams could possibly not even make it close to winning their respect division in awhile, these are still all programs that have that "X Factor" imo.
I feel like Georgia is due for a natty here soon.
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Georgia
Auburn
Florida
Are all teams that in my opinion wouldn't surprise me representing the SEC in the playoffs in the near future. Even though a few of these teams could possibly not even make it close to winning their respect division in awhile, these are still all programs that have that "X Factor" imo.
I feel like Georgia is due for a natty here soon.
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