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re: Which Kentucky players will turn pro?
Posted on 4/5/15 at 5:03 pm to WildcatMike
Posted on 4/5/15 at 5:03 pm to WildcatMike
Yea, first round or second round? Isn't that what I asked? I asked what round. Did you read my post? Maybe quit worrying about trying to ask the stupid question "dude do you even basketball" and just have a normal conversation. 
This post was edited on 4/5/15 at 5:06 pm
2
Posted on 4/5/15 at 5:05 pm to HogBalls
quote:
Yea, first round or second round? Isn't that what I asked? Did you read my post? Maybe quit worrying ab
Are you serious? WCS was a 1st rounder last year and came back to move up the boards higher. If you are serious, he is a 1st round pick...and early.
Posted on 4/5/15 at 11:13 pm to HogBalls
For those of you that know nothing on WCS
Projecting Cauley-Stein in NBA
ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."
Question: Why hasn't Willie Cauley-Stein's rise up draft boards been mirrored by his WARP projection?
Kevin Pelton: No top upperclassman has done more to solidify his draft stock this season than Cauley-Stein, the junior center from Kentucky who is the only non-freshman NCAA player in the top 10 on Chad's most recent big board. Yet Cauley-Stein wasn't in the top 30 of my statistical big board; he currently ranks 44th in terms of projected WARP (1.2), a discrepancy that's worth considering.
From the perspective of box-score stats, Cauley-Stein hasn't improved dramatically from his sophomore season. While he's playing a larger role in the UK offense despite all the talent around him, Cauley-Stein has seen his block rate drop nearly by half from his sophomore season. So factoring in age, his projection is actually slightly worse than it was a year ago. What have scouts seen that has helped boost his stock?
Chad Ford: The raw appeal has nothing to really do with his box-score stats. It's the siren song of a super athletic 7-footer with the agility to defend, perhaps, all five positions on the floor. Those guys come along ... well, never. That's why he's in the conversation for a top-10 pick. He's inconsistent offensively, but his defensive upside is off the charts.
Question: What are Cauley-Stein's strengths and weaknesses?
Pelton: The big positive with Cauley-Stein is something my projection system usually loves: steal rate. Among players listed as centers in my database, Cauley-Stein's projected steal percentage (1.7 percent) would rank third behind DeJuan Blair and Nerlens Noel. In terms of both projected steal percentage and block percentage (4.4 percent), just two players can beat Cauley-Stein: Kentucky predecessors Noel and Anthony Davis.
The difference between Cauley-Stein and those players is on the glass. His projected defensive rebound percentage (15.9 percent) would be the worst of any NBA-bound center in my database. Cauley-Stein has had plenty of competition for rebounds from his teammates, including Noel, Julius Randle and now Karl-Anthony Towns. An adjustment for that competition is one reason Cauley-Stein scores so much better in Layne Vashro's draft projections. Still, it's hard to project Cauley-Stein as even an average rebounder in the NBA.
Ford: Cauley-Stein projects as a versatile, elite defender who has, time and time again, shut down the opposing team's best player when he's hot. I think he's a much better shot-blocker than his stats show this season. He's typically on the floor with another elite shot-blocker, Towns. With Towns protecting the rim, head coach John Calipari has used Cauley-Stein in all sorts of creative ways, including chasing players down on the perimeter and funneling them into a waiting Towns. If Towns wasn't on this team, Cauley-Stein would be used differently (like he was last season with Julius Randle) and his blocks would be way up.
Projecting Cauley-Stein in NBA
ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."
Question: Why hasn't Willie Cauley-Stein's rise up draft boards been mirrored by his WARP projection?
Kevin Pelton: No top upperclassman has done more to solidify his draft stock this season than Cauley-Stein, the junior center from Kentucky who is the only non-freshman NCAA player in the top 10 on Chad's most recent big board. Yet Cauley-Stein wasn't in the top 30 of my statistical big board; he currently ranks 44th in terms of projected WARP (1.2), a discrepancy that's worth considering.
From the perspective of box-score stats, Cauley-Stein hasn't improved dramatically from his sophomore season. While he's playing a larger role in the UK offense despite all the talent around him, Cauley-Stein has seen his block rate drop nearly by half from his sophomore season. So factoring in age, his projection is actually slightly worse than it was a year ago. What have scouts seen that has helped boost his stock?
Chad Ford: The raw appeal has nothing to really do with his box-score stats. It's the siren song of a super athletic 7-footer with the agility to defend, perhaps, all five positions on the floor. Those guys come along ... well, never. That's why he's in the conversation for a top-10 pick. He's inconsistent offensively, but his defensive upside is off the charts.
Question: What are Cauley-Stein's strengths and weaknesses?
Pelton: The big positive with Cauley-Stein is something my projection system usually loves: steal rate. Among players listed as centers in my database, Cauley-Stein's projected steal percentage (1.7 percent) would rank third behind DeJuan Blair and Nerlens Noel. In terms of both projected steal percentage and block percentage (4.4 percent), just two players can beat Cauley-Stein: Kentucky predecessors Noel and Anthony Davis.
The difference between Cauley-Stein and those players is on the glass. His projected defensive rebound percentage (15.9 percent) would be the worst of any NBA-bound center in my database. Cauley-Stein has had plenty of competition for rebounds from his teammates, including Noel, Julius Randle and now Karl-Anthony Towns. An adjustment for that competition is one reason Cauley-Stein scores so much better in Layne Vashro's draft projections. Still, it's hard to project Cauley-Stein as even an average rebounder in the NBA.
Ford: Cauley-Stein projects as a versatile, elite defender who has, time and time again, shut down the opposing team's best player when he's hot. I think he's a much better shot-blocker than his stats show this season. He's typically on the floor with another elite shot-blocker, Towns. With Towns protecting the rim, head coach John Calipari has used Cauley-Stein in all sorts of creative ways, including chasing players down on the perimeter and funneling them into a waiting Towns. If Towns wasn't on this team, Cauley-Stein would be used differently (like he was last season with Julius Randle) and his blocks would be way up.
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