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Alabama's chances to win the West
Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:09 am
Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:09 am
Obviously, we need help in that Ole Miss has to lose, probably twice unless we get into a favorable three way tie-breaker situation with Ole Miss, which I would not like to rely on.
So clearly we are pulling for A&M to stick Ole Miss with a loss (come on A&M defenses, get your shite together for at least this one game).
More difficult question is who to pull for in the AU/MSU game?
On the one hand I want to pull for AU because I think that AU has the tougher remaining schedule and therefore could drop another game (in addition to the Alabama game of course, which is presumption in all of this or the rest hardly matters)
On the other hand I want to pull for MSU to give Auburn this loss because I feel like MSU is more likely to be MSU and drop some games later.
I think I am leaning towards pulling for Auburn, figuring that Ole Miss and MSU will come up with at least two losses each somehow, they always do. Alabama wins out and we have another Iron Bowl for all the marbles.
It's probably way too early to try and figure out exactly what helps Alabama's cause the most, but thoughts?
So clearly we are pulling for A&M to stick Ole Miss with a loss (come on A&M defenses, get your shite together for at least this one game).
More difficult question is who to pull for in the AU/MSU game?
On the one hand I want to pull for AU because I think that AU has the tougher remaining schedule and therefore could drop another game (in addition to the Alabama game of course, which is presumption in all of this or the rest hardly matters)
On the other hand I want to pull for MSU to give Auburn this loss because I feel like MSU is more likely to be MSU and drop some games later.
I think I am leaning towards pulling for Auburn, figuring that Ole Miss and MSU will come up with at least two losses each somehow, they always do. Alabama wins out and we have another Iron Bowl for all the marbles.
It's probably way too early to try and figure out exactly what helps Alabama's cause the most, but thoughts?
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Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:27 am to elposter
I want MSU to beat Auburn. #1 cause I hate Auburn, and #2 cause if Bama doesn't win the west I sure don't want Auburn to win.
Still I expect us to beat Auburn MSU, Tennessee and LSU. So it doesn't really matter anyway.
Still I expect us to beat Auburn MSU, Tennessee and LSU. So it doesn't really matter anyway.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 12:59 pm to elposter
Pulling for MSU, because frick Auburn forever, that's why.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 1:04 pm to elposter
This weekend is easy. Clanga.
The weekend that will be a bitch is having to root for Auburn to beat Ole Miss. It makes me sick just thinking about it.
The weekend that will be a bitch is having to root for Auburn to beat Ole Miss. It makes me sick just thinking about it.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 10:08 pm to elposter
I've played this out in my head like 50 times this week, and the most likely scenario in which I see Bama winning the West (and more importantly a playoff spot assuming they beat the SECe rep) is something like this:
Ala: Has to win out.
A&M: Must beat Ole Miss; lose to Alabama.
Ark: Must lose to Alabama.
Aub: Would be nice to have them undefeated prior to the Iron Bowl, but a loss to A&M would be permissable in this scenario.
LSU: Must lose to Alabama.
MsSt: Must lose to Auburn, Alabama.
OM: Must lose to Auburn and A&M.
This is extremely wishful thinking. All that said, I hope if Bama is going to be knocked out of the race that it's sooner rather than later.
Ala: Has to win out.
A&M: Must beat Ole Miss; lose to Alabama.
Ark: Must lose to Alabama.
Aub: Would be nice to have them undefeated prior to the Iron Bowl, but a loss to A&M would be permissable in this scenario.
LSU: Must lose to Alabama.
MsSt: Must lose to Auburn, Alabama.
OM: Must lose to Auburn and A&M.
This is extremely wishful thinking. All that said, I hope if Bama is going to be knocked out of the race that it's sooner rather than later.
This post was edited on 10/8/14 at 10:58 pm
Posted on 10/9/14 at 1:27 am to elposter
Obviously, Alabama has to win out to win the West.
If Ole Miss loses this week Alabama's chances of winning the West double, or more.
Aside from winning out, I think Ole Miss losing this week is all that matters. Hell, I haven't heard a single talking head talk about the Ole Miss game without saying Alabama beat themselves. That's huge when it comes to squeaking in the playoff.
If Alabama is around 5 or 6(they'll be higher than this) and beat Miss St and then Auburn there's no chance they don't firmly put themselves in the top 4.
With an Alabama win and Ole Miss loss this week, Alabama's path will go from "muddy as hell," to "holy shite we win out and we got this." <----- team's mentality
If Ole Miss loses this week Alabama's chances of winning the West double, or more.
Aside from winning out, I think Ole Miss losing this week is all that matters. Hell, I haven't heard a single talking head talk about the Ole Miss game without saying Alabama beat themselves. That's huge when it comes to squeaking in the playoff.
If Alabama is around 5 or 6(they'll be higher than this) and beat Miss St and then Auburn there's no chance they don't firmly put themselves in the top 4.
With an Alabama win and Ole Miss loss this week, Alabama's path will go from "muddy as hell," to "holy shite we win out and we got this." <----- team's mentality
Posted on 10/9/14 at 10:22 am to elposter
its easy, we just need ole miss to lose twice (which is possible, even quite likely. i can see them getting cocky and losing to a&m this weekend), and we need to win out and beat miss st and auburn.
Posted on 10/9/14 at 1:24 pm to elposter
UA wins out I think we are in,even if Ole Miss wins out. For UA to win out at least three teams have to drop games in front of us, two to UA. We would sit at 4th in the polls. What hurts UA is if we finish 2nd in the West and do not get to play CCG weekend and a 1 loss Pac 12 and Big 10 are playing assuming Baylor or TCU goes undefeated.
The ideal scenario for me would be we win out and AU is undefeated going into the Iron Bowl. We should be 3 or 4 in the polls and that win would vault us to 2nd in the rankings which would lock up a playoff spot for us whether we played in Atlanta or not.
The ideal scenario for me would be we win out and AU is undefeated going into the Iron Bowl. We should be 3 or 4 in the polls and that win would vault us to 2nd in the rankings which would lock up a playoff spot for us whether we played in Atlanta or not.
Posted on 10/9/14 at 5:07 pm to elposter
Depending on how long Gurley gets suspended and whether they have to vacate wins, wonder if this helps us in a hypothetical tiebreaker with Auburn.
Let's say AU beats OM, OM beat us, we beat Auburn.
OM plays Vandy and UT from the East.
Auburn plays USCe and UGA from the east
We play UF and UT.
Assuming they make uga vacate or they start losing some games, could it be that UT + UF will have more wins than UGA + USCe?
Let's say AU beats OM, OM beat us, we beat Auburn.
OM plays Vandy and UT from the East.
Auburn plays USCe and UGA from the east
We play UF and UT.
Assuming they make uga vacate or they start losing some games, could it be that UT + UF will have more wins than UGA + USCe?
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