re: How you can tell a defense is improved

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You mean if the DC calls the right play, then the offensive play isn't going to work? You're a god damned genius

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Not quite, playaction from under center does increase the risk of sacks and turnovers because the QB often gets hit before he sees the defenders or has time to protect the ball. It is very high risk because once he whips his head around, he immediately has to assess whether or not the blitzers and ends bit on the run or are already baring down on him.

There are downsides to playaction from the gun, namely that the defense is less likely to bite on the fake, but the risks are substantially reduced. I don't like my QBs turning their backs to the defense.