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re: AP Top Ten analysis 2012-2014 (weeks 1-7 only)
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:26 pm to MontyFranklyn
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:26 pm to MontyFranklyn
quote:
That is pretty interesting, why not use a larger sample size?
I only used the post-realignment numbers.
I can try to go back 5 years total (2010-2014).
2011
Week 1: #3 Oregon lost to #4 LSU
Week 2: None
Week 3: #5 Florida State lost to #1 Oklahoma
Week 4: #8 Texas A&M lost to #7 Oklahoma State
Week 5: #8 Nebraska lost to #7 Wisconsin, #10 South Carolina lost to Auburn
Week 6: None
Week 7: None
2010 season:
Week 1: #10 Virginia Tech lost to #3 Boise State
Week 2: None
Week 3: #9 Iowa lost to #24 Arizona
Week 4: #7 Texas lost to UCLA, #10 Arkansas lost to #1 Alabama
Week 5: #7 Florida lost to #1 Alabama, #9 Stanford lost to #4 Oregon
Week 6: #1 Alabama lost to #19 South Carolina, #9 Arizona lost to Oregon State
Week 7: #1 Ohio State lost to #18 Wisconsin, #5 Nebraska lost to Texas, #10 South Carolina lost to Kentucky
Add
2 losses to #1
0 losses to #2
1 loss to #3
1 loss to #4
3 losses to #5
0 losses to #6
2 losses to #7
2 losses to #8
2 losses to #9
4 loss to #10
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:31 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Adding that to the 2012-2014 numbers:
#1 lost 2 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 3 times
#4 lost 2 times
#5 lost 7 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 4 times
#8 lost 10 times
#9 lost 4 times
#10 lost 7 times
Updating the math, and using an opponent with a chance of winning:
Clemson has a 7% chance of beating Florida State
Washington State has a 3% chance of beating Oregon
Florida has a 10% chance of beating Alabama
West Virginia has a 7% chance of beating Oklahoma
Kansas State has a 23% chance of beating Auburn
SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M
Baylor has a BYE
Mississippi State has a 33% chance of beating LSU
Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have BYEs
#1 lost 2 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 3 times
#4 lost 2 times
#5 lost 7 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 4 times
#8 lost 10 times
#9 lost 4 times
#10 lost 7 times
Updating the math, and using an opponent with a chance of winning:
Clemson has a 7% chance of beating Florida State
Washington State has a 3% chance of beating Oregon
Florida has a 10% chance of beating Alabama
West Virginia has a 7% chance of beating Oklahoma
Kansas State has a 23% chance of beating Auburn
SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M
Baylor has a BYE
Mississippi State has a 33% chance of beating LSU
Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have BYEs
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