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If 2 12-0 teams play in Atlanta, which could happen, doesn't that theoretically mean that the one who losses isn't NC good? They had a shot, and lost a neutral site game to someone else.

No, it means the the evidence suggests that the winner is the better team. Why can't you compare the loser to the teams competing for the remaining three slots?

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There is an absolute difference in losing in September vs. December to me.

A minor difference to me. Teams should be getting better through the season. But there is way too much tendency to ignore early season losses. They count, too.

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Disclaimer: I am in no way condoning that OSU should sniff the playoff this year (even if they only lose 1 cause they looked awful), but I think MSU could get in if they only lose 1 (they have a "good" loss on the road across the country).

Fair statement. I'm not sure what opportunities are left for the Big 10 to win against significant nonconference opponents..but if the conference finishes the way it looks right now, then losing to Oregon and then sweeping through the conference isn't enough to me.

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In the end, I think it is 4 conference champs if at all possible for $ purposes

I don't know how much the dollars will impact, but 4 conference champs is the "safe" pick. Unless you put in a conference champ with a MUCH weaker record/resume, that's the way to go. But if a one loss SEC team got left out to a three loss Duke who upsets Florida St in the conference championship, there would be some explaining to do.