re: VandyFans: Will you please explain "regression toward the mean" to USC fans?

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You're assuming that football operates on simple probability like blackjack or roulette.

It doesn't work like that.

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Not assuming that at all, but you do make a great point. There is nothing simple about the probability of a football outcome. IF we could identify all the factors that impact the outcome and create an identical set of circumstances, then the probability of the second result would be identical to the probability of the first result.

But this is the nature of the problem with determining the relative strength of a team in football. It is highly, highly complex, and most of us are guilty of oversimplifying it and giving far too much weight to one or two factors. "This team can't win on the road" or "Of course XYZ State was going to lose, their coach always loses big games" are usually ridiculously far from accurate.

And then, amazingly, we all are shocked when the team everyone thought would win it all loses in an upset. It happens over and over and over...