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re: VandyFans: Will you please explain "regression toward the mean" to USC fans?
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:19 am to Tennessee Jed
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:19 am to Tennessee Jed
I've always felt that this phrase was misleading. Things don't truly tend to "regress", they simply are not likely to be an outlier the second time. Nothing has changed, and there is no causal relationship between scoring an extreme measurement and the likelihood of scoring near the mean on the second measure. The fact that you are more likely to score toward the mean remains constant, regardless of your first measurement.
The roulette wheel has no memory. If things truly regressed toward the mean, then a smart bet would be to wait until the ball hit a green (0 or double 0) and then bet heavier on red and black. But in reality, the wheel has no memory - the odds of hitting green remain identical to what those odds were before the last spin, regardless of the outcome.
The roulette wheel has no memory. If things truly regressed toward the mean, then a smart bet would be to wait until the ball hit a green (0 or double 0) and then bet heavier on red and black. But in reality, the wheel has no memory - the odds of hitting green remain identical to what those odds were before the last spin, regardless of the outcome.
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Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:22 am to Crimson Legend
quote:
I've always felt that this phrase was misleading. Things don't truly tend to "regress", they simply are not likely to be an outlier the second time. Nothing has changed, and there is no causal relationship between scoring an extreme measurement and the likelihood of scoring near the mean on the second measure. The fact that you are more likely to score toward the mean remains constant, regardless of your first measurement.
The roulette wheel has no memory. If things truly regressed toward the mean, then a smart bet would be to wait until the ball hit a green (0 or double 0) and then bet heavier on red and black. But in reality, the wheel has no memory - the odds of hitting green remain identical to what those odds were before the last spin, regardless of the outcome.
You're assuming that football operates on simple probability like blackjack or roulette.
It doesn't work like that.
This post was edited on 8/29/14 at 11:23 am
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:25 am to Crimson Legend
quote:
The roulette wheel has no memory. If things truly regressed toward the mean, then a smart bet would be to wait until the ball hit a green (0 or double 0) and then bet heavier on red and black. But in reality, the wheel has no memory - the odds of hitting green remain identical to what those odds were before the last spin, regardless of the outcome.
Except college football isn't a roulette wheel. Programs are different, thus they have different means.
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