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VandyFans: Will you please explain "regression toward the mean" to USC fans?
Posted on 8/29/14 at 8:40 am
Posted on 8/29/14 at 8:40 am
Thanks in advance.
12
Posted on 8/29/14 at 8:42 am to Tennessee Jed
shite talking Vandy. That's the Tennessee we know and love.
Posted on 8/29/14 at 8:53 am to Tennessee Jed
Posted on 8/29/14 at 8:54 am to Tennessee Jed
I like this thread
Posted on 8/29/14 at 9:04 am to Tennessee Jed
Underrated thread
Posted on 8/29/14 at 9:10 am to Tennessee Jed
I upvoted a UT fan. This must be a good thread. 2 birds, one stone. Nicely done.
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:15 am to Tennessee Jed
Well done
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:29 am to Tennessee Jed
I was really hoping that you would hook a Vandy fan to start in with the definition and a few sentences in go, "Hey, wait a minute!!!"
Posted on 8/29/14 at 10:58 am to Tennessee Jed
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:19 am to Tennessee Jed
I've always felt that this phrase was misleading. Things don't truly tend to "regress", they simply are not likely to be an outlier the second time. Nothing has changed, and there is no causal relationship between scoring an extreme measurement and the likelihood of scoring near the mean on the second measure. The fact that you are more likely to score toward the mean remains constant, regardless of your first measurement.
The roulette wheel has no memory. If things truly regressed toward the mean, then a smart bet would be to wait until the ball hit a green (0 or double 0) and then bet heavier on red and black. But in reality, the wheel has no memory - the odds of hitting green remain identical to what those odds were before the last spin, regardless of the outcome.
The roulette wheel has no memory. If things truly regressed toward the mean, then a smart bet would be to wait until the ball hit a green (0 or double 0) and then bet heavier on red and black. But in reality, the wheel has no memory - the odds of hitting green remain identical to what those odds were before the last spin, regardless of the outcome.
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:23 am to Tennessee Jed
Is it your opinion that Tennessee has a new normal?
Your long-run moving average is most definitely sloping downward.
A decade of mediocrity is statistically significant, I'm pretty sure.
Your long-run moving average is most definitely sloping downward.
A decade of mediocrity is statistically significant, I'm pretty sure.
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:36 am to Tennessee Jed
Posted on 8/29/14 at 11:59 am to Tennessee Jed
This was actually a really well-done thread. Congrats on that. However, viewed over the last few seasons, Vandy was/is (remains to be seen no matter how bad one result is) on an upward trend from a numbers perspective. Technically, this is the outlier for recent history. It depends on what time frame is viewed as pertinent. That's not to say last night's result is not incredibly alarming but hitting the panic button now would be as bad as pulling Patton in 1st quarter.
I hope Keaton breaks the scoreboard in Neyland though.
I hope Keaton breaks the scoreboard in Neyland though.
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