re: FPRC's 2014 Missouri Tigers Football Preview

Schedule Analysis
The schedule isn’t quite as favorable for Mizzou this year as it was last year, not so much for the opponents they play (@A&M and Arky as opposed to A&M and @OM last year) but for who their opponents play in the weeks leading up to the Mizzou game. What does stay the same is 4 OOC games to open the season, which should get Mizzou off to a fast 4-0 start while getting some much needed experience under them.

Week 5 will be a big week for Mizzou as arguably their toughest game will be @SC. Last year left a bitter taste in fans’ mouths. Losing 2 in a row left a bitter taste in fans’ mouths. Can Mizzou show up in the other Columbia and steal a win? Certainly. Will they? Time will tell, but this game could shape the season for Mizzou going forward if they could manage to find a win.

Mizzou will then get a bye week to recover before playing UGA at home and @UF, making for probably their toughest stretch on the schedule. While both games are winnable for Mizzou, both are certainly losable as well. While SC and UGA have both put Vandy immediately before Mizzou (a change from last year), UF still has LSU the week before Mizzou and @UT before that, which may be to Mizzou’s benefit if last year is any predictor.

Mizzou should follow that stretch up with wins over Vandy and UK at home followed by a bye week before going to A&M and to UT. It is difficult to know what to expect out of A&M this year but Mizzou is certainly familiar with going to Kyle Field. As much as A&M and UT fans probably see these games as wins for their teams, Mizzou fans certainly feel these games are wins for the Tigers, which means they should be fun, competitive games to watch. If one looks for an edge in these games, Mizzou comes off a bye week before playing A&M while A&M is coming off of a game against Auburn. Conversely, Mizzou plays UT right after A&M while UT will be coming off of UK and a bye week before that.

Mizzou finishes out the season against Arkansas at home. Is there a rivalry there? Dunno. Those things can’t be forced and don’t occur overnight. Having said that, I think these games will be fun games between the two schools every year regardless of how the teams have played in any given season. This year, I think Mizzou gets the win at home while Bert continues to show improvement at Arky.

Keys to Success
If the first two seasons in the SEC has taught anything to Mizzou, the biggest key to success is first and foremost health. And a little luck. Mizzou has been on both sides of that issue and while they’ve added depth, ultimately staying healthy will play a huge role in how the season goes.

Next in line may be starting the season with 4 OOC games. Mizzou is relatively young at several key positions and the game experience and confidence gained by setting the schedule in this fashion may pay off. It will give Mauk an opportunity to establish himself and develop chemistry with new receivers. It will give those receivers an opportunity to establish themselves and see who is going to step up this year. It will give Mizzou an opportunity to sort out their moving parts at LB. All before their first conference game.

Outlook

Taking everything into consideration, one would anticipate a season better than year 1 but not as strong as year 2. Looking at the schedule, there doesn’t appear to be any games that one would chalk up to a loss before the games are even played, such as Alabama two seasons ago.

Should be wins: South Dakota State, @Toledo, UCF, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas.
Toss ups: @SC, UGA, @UF, @A&M, @UT

Win 3 of 5 toss ups = 10-2
Win 2 of 5 toss ups = 9-3

As for winning the east…no way to predict anyone until week 14. UGA, SC and Mizzou certainly seem like they should be in the mix given team make up and schedules. UF's schedule may just be too tough.