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re: FPRC's 2014 Missouri Tigers Football Preview
Posted on 8/24/14 at 3:27 pm to semotruman
Posted on 8/24/14 at 3:27 pm to semotruman
Analysis of Defense
Mizzou Plans on Busting In and Making Off with the East Title Again (We have Experience Here)
Next man up. That’s the philosophy that guided the Tigers last year, especially on defense, a year that saw a breakout performance by the unit. But there will be a lot of untested Tigers for Ol’ Mizzou. Time will show whether or not the Tigers Defense is ready for “Next Man Up” in 2014.
Defensive Line
Marcus Golden(SR), Shane Ray(JR), Matt Hoch(SR), Josh Augusta(SO), Evan Winston(SO), Lucas Vincent(SR), Harold Brantley(SO)
Rising Stars: If there’s an heir apparent for the new Tiger sack king, it’s probably Markus Golden (Preseason 3rd team All-SEC). He showed flashes of great athleticism from the DE spot last year, racking up 6.5 sacks while only playing 40% of the snaps. Last year, Golden was arguably more productive than Sam or Ealy when broken down by minutes played. At the same time, the staff has been saying since after his first year that Ray may be the best/fastest of the group. Mizzou’s problems come in after the first two. There is a complete lack of depth to spell Golden and/or Ray and lord forbid one were to get injured.
One to watch for is also a great story...Charles Harris (RSFr). Harris didn't even have a page, much less a ranking, on any of the recruiting services before Mizzou extended him an offer just prior to NSD. Harris, primarily a basketball player, didn't play football until his junior year of high school and only had scholarship offers from the likes of Pittsburgh(kansas) State. Harris has come to Mizzou and been a workout fiend. He has added 40 pounds and is the typical first to arrive, last to leave type of kid. According to all that have seen him, he is 2-3 years beyond where he was projected to be at this point. The kid has been not just earning his scholarship but opening eyes all spring and so far this fall. If you're looking for a good story to watch this year, keep an eye out for potentially Pinkel's latest and best diamond in the rough.
As much as Mizzou lacks depth on the ends, they don’t lack it up the middle. There is enough depth that Nate Crawford(RSFR) moved from the DL to the OL this spring. All of the above players saw significant time last year and look to anchor Mizzou’s defensive line. In fact, look for one or two of them to slide outside on occasion to help with the lack of depth at DE.
Keep your eyes on sophomore Josh Augusta, a 6-4, 300’ DT, who may still be a year away from being an absolute dominant force. Lucas Vincent has shown the kind of jump in his game so far this fall that the staff saw in guys like Ealy and Richardson in years past. Brantley fought a viral infection in the offseason that saw him drop about 40 pounds, making his readiness for game 1 uncertain. Beyond those five, Mizzou looks to the future with A.J. Logan(RSFR) and Rickey Hatley(SO), who may also see some time.
Linebacker
Kentrell Brothers(JR), Michael Scherer(SO), Donavin Newsom(SO), Joe Burkett(RSFR), Eric Beisel(RSFR), Clarence Green(JR), Darvin Ruise(SR), Brandon Lee(FR)
The number of names is more reflective of this position being one of concern and uncertainty than it is of depth. Mizzou is thinner than the Olsen twins on a hunger strike at linebacker. LB is probably the most troubling position for the Tigers and there has been a lot of movement, both up and down the depth chart and from weakside to strongside to the middle. Newsom and Brothers offer the highest upside and are slated to start at the strongside and weakside, respectively. Ruise, who saw plenty of playing time last year, has been demoted to 3rd in the depth chart. Another question mark will be if Scherer can approach Wilson’s production last year from the middle. A lot of question marks and a lot of uncertainty within the LB corp.
Corner Backs
John Gibson(SO), Aarion Penton(SO), Kenya Dennis(JR), Logan Cheadle(RSFR), David Johnson(JR)
Both Gibson and Penton are young and both have shown they are capable of playing in the SEC. Gibson has been a starter and Penton more than held his own as a true freshman when EJ Gaines went down with injury. A position of concern in the past, Mizzou currently has a lot of depth at the position. JUCO transfer Kenya Dennis adds to that depth while freshmen Cheadle and Ray Wingo could see time as well. While there is concern in the media for the defensive backfield, this group will deliver a serviceable product on the field, especially by the time the Tigers hit SEC stride on the 5th week of the season.
Safety
Braylon Webb(SR), Ian Simon(JR), Duron Singleton(SR), Anthony Sherrils(RSFR), Courtland Browning(JR), Tavon Ross(FR)
Much like CB, Mizzou has more depth at Safety than they’ve had in recent years. Webb and Simon bring the experience and steady play, along with Singleton, but the higher end talent may lie with the youth in Sherrills, Wilson and Ross. Sherrils was unable to play as a true freshman due to a significant head injury following a car accident, but by all accounts has fully healed and has speed to spare. Ross may also push for playing time as a true freshman.
Scheme
Mizzou will continue to run a modified 4-3 which is for some reason designed to make any opposing team running the option look like the invasion of the Mongol Hordes while bending-without-breaking for good-enough-to-win results for the rest of the schedule. Expect regular but unexplainable switches in the scheme when things are working and no switches when things aren’t. Mizzou fans have faced this reality.
Analysis of Special Teams
It can only get better from here. Seriously.
Coaching Analysis
Gary Pinkel has been fortunate for the most part in that he has had little turnover with his assistants. This year did see the retirement of co-offensive lines coach, Bruce Walker. In his place, Mizzou brought in former Mizzou Tiger AJ Ricker, who was the OLine coach at Illinois. The hire of the younger Ricker was met with excitement by the current linemen. Having played under Pinkel's system, he comes in with some knowledge of the terminology and philosophy. Offensive coordinator Josh Henson will continue to serve as co-offensive line coach.
Speaking of Henson, he enters his 2nd year at the helm of the offense. The guy thoroughly impressed in year 1. Granted, it was a senior laden team, the team was able to put up impressive offensive numbers in year 1 of a new offensive coordinator. Tigers eagerly await what season 2 might bring.
Off Season Report
Mizzou lost 2 receivers in the offseason. Most are already aware of DGB who was dismissed from the team. Mizzou also lost backup WR Levi Copelin, who has been suspended for the season for taking a banned supplement. Copelin remains on the team though, as the supplement was one bought legally at a store and it appears it was just poor decision making for not simply going through the staff for approved supplements.
Mizzou Plans on Busting In and Making Off with the East Title Again (We have Experience Here)
Next man up. That’s the philosophy that guided the Tigers last year, especially on defense, a year that saw a breakout performance by the unit. But there will be a lot of untested Tigers for Ol’ Mizzou. Time will show whether or not the Tigers Defense is ready for “Next Man Up” in 2014.
Defensive Line
Marcus Golden(SR), Shane Ray(JR), Matt Hoch(SR), Josh Augusta(SO), Evan Winston(SO), Lucas Vincent(SR), Harold Brantley(SO)
Rising Stars: If there’s an heir apparent for the new Tiger sack king, it’s probably Markus Golden (Preseason 3rd team All-SEC). He showed flashes of great athleticism from the DE spot last year, racking up 6.5 sacks while only playing 40% of the snaps. Last year, Golden was arguably more productive than Sam or Ealy when broken down by minutes played. At the same time, the staff has been saying since after his first year that Ray may be the best/fastest of the group. Mizzou’s problems come in after the first two. There is a complete lack of depth to spell Golden and/or Ray and lord forbid one were to get injured.
One to watch for is also a great story...Charles Harris (RSFr). Harris didn't even have a page, much less a ranking, on any of the recruiting services before Mizzou extended him an offer just prior to NSD. Harris, primarily a basketball player, didn't play football until his junior year of high school and only had scholarship offers from the likes of Pittsburgh(kansas) State. Harris has come to Mizzou and been a workout fiend. He has added 40 pounds and is the typical first to arrive, last to leave type of kid. According to all that have seen him, he is 2-3 years beyond where he was projected to be at this point. The kid has been not just earning his scholarship but opening eyes all spring and so far this fall. If you're looking for a good story to watch this year, keep an eye out for potentially Pinkel's latest and best diamond in the rough.
As much as Mizzou lacks depth on the ends, they don’t lack it up the middle. There is enough depth that Nate Crawford(RSFR) moved from the DL to the OL this spring. All of the above players saw significant time last year and look to anchor Mizzou’s defensive line. In fact, look for one or two of them to slide outside on occasion to help with the lack of depth at DE.
Keep your eyes on sophomore Josh Augusta, a 6-4, 300’ DT, who may still be a year away from being an absolute dominant force. Lucas Vincent has shown the kind of jump in his game so far this fall that the staff saw in guys like Ealy and Richardson in years past. Brantley fought a viral infection in the offseason that saw him drop about 40 pounds, making his readiness for game 1 uncertain. Beyond those five, Mizzou looks to the future with A.J. Logan(RSFR) and Rickey Hatley(SO), who may also see some time.
Linebacker
Kentrell Brothers(JR), Michael Scherer(SO), Donavin Newsom(SO), Joe Burkett(RSFR), Eric Beisel(RSFR), Clarence Green(JR), Darvin Ruise(SR), Brandon Lee(FR)
The number of names is more reflective of this position being one of concern and uncertainty than it is of depth. Mizzou is thinner than the Olsen twins on a hunger strike at linebacker. LB is probably the most troubling position for the Tigers and there has been a lot of movement, both up and down the depth chart and from weakside to strongside to the middle. Newsom and Brothers offer the highest upside and are slated to start at the strongside and weakside, respectively. Ruise, who saw plenty of playing time last year, has been demoted to 3rd in the depth chart. Another question mark will be if Scherer can approach Wilson’s production last year from the middle. A lot of question marks and a lot of uncertainty within the LB corp.
Corner Backs
John Gibson(SO), Aarion Penton(SO), Kenya Dennis(JR), Logan Cheadle(RSFR), David Johnson(JR)
Both Gibson and Penton are young and both have shown they are capable of playing in the SEC. Gibson has been a starter and Penton more than held his own as a true freshman when EJ Gaines went down with injury. A position of concern in the past, Mizzou currently has a lot of depth at the position. JUCO transfer Kenya Dennis adds to that depth while freshmen Cheadle and Ray Wingo could see time as well. While there is concern in the media for the defensive backfield, this group will deliver a serviceable product on the field, especially by the time the Tigers hit SEC stride on the 5th week of the season.
Safety
Braylon Webb(SR), Ian Simon(JR), Duron Singleton(SR), Anthony Sherrils(RSFR), Courtland Browning(JR), Tavon Ross(FR)
Much like CB, Mizzou has more depth at Safety than they’ve had in recent years. Webb and Simon bring the experience and steady play, along with Singleton, but the higher end talent may lie with the youth in Sherrills, Wilson and Ross. Sherrils was unable to play as a true freshman due to a significant head injury following a car accident, but by all accounts has fully healed and has speed to spare. Ross may also push for playing time as a true freshman.
Scheme
Mizzou will continue to run a modified 4-3 which is for some reason designed to make any opposing team running the option look like the invasion of the Mongol Hordes while bending-without-breaking for good-enough-to-win results for the rest of the schedule. Expect regular but unexplainable switches in the scheme when things are working and no switches when things aren’t. Mizzou fans have faced this reality.
Analysis of Special Teams
It can only get better from here. Seriously.
Coaching Analysis
Gary Pinkel has been fortunate for the most part in that he has had little turnover with his assistants. This year did see the retirement of co-offensive lines coach, Bruce Walker. In his place, Mizzou brought in former Mizzou Tiger AJ Ricker, who was the OLine coach at Illinois. The hire of the younger Ricker was met with excitement by the current linemen. Having played under Pinkel's system, he comes in with some knowledge of the terminology and philosophy. Offensive coordinator Josh Henson will continue to serve as co-offensive line coach.
Speaking of Henson, he enters his 2nd year at the helm of the offense. The guy thoroughly impressed in year 1. Granted, it was a senior laden team, the team was able to put up impressive offensive numbers in year 1 of a new offensive coordinator. Tigers eagerly await what season 2 might bring.
Off Season Report
Mizzou lost 2 receivers in the offseason. Most are already aware of DGB who was dismissed from the team. Mizzou also lost backup WR Levi Copelin, who has been suspended for the season for taking a banned supplement. Copelin remains on the team though, as the supplement was one bought legally at a store and it appears it was just poor decision making for not simply going through the staff for approved supplements.
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Posted on 8/24/14 at 3:27 pm to semotruman
Schedule Analysis
The schedule isn’t quite as favorable for Mizzou this year as it was last year, not so much for the opponents they play (@A&M and Arky as opposed to A&M and @OM last year) but for who their opponents play in the weeks leading up to the Mizzou game. What does stay the same is 4 OOC games to open the season, which should get Mizzou off to a fast 4-0 start while getting some much needed experience under them.
Week 5 will be a big week for Mizzou as arguably their toughest game will be @SC. Last year left a bitter taste in fans’ mouths. Losing 2 in a row left a bitter taste in fans’ mouths. Can Mizzou show up in the other Columbia and steal a win? Certainly. Will they? Time will tell, but this game could shape the season for Mizzou going forward if they could manage to find a win.
Mizzou will then get a bye week to recover before playing UGA at home and @UF, making for probably their toughest stretch on the schedule. While both games are winnable for Mizzou, both are certainly losable as well. While SC and UGA have both put Vandy immediately before Mizzou (a change from last year), UF still has LSU the week before Mizzou and @UT before that, which may be to Mizzou’s benefit if last year is any predictor.
Mizzou should follow that stretch up with wins over Vandy and UK at home followed by a bye week before going to A&M and to UT. It is difficult to know what to expect out of A&M this year but Mizzou is certainly familiar with going to Kyle Field. As much as A&M and UT fans probably see these games as wins for their teams, Mizzou fans certainly feel these games are wins for the Tigers, which means they should be fun, competitive games to watch. If one looks for an edge in these games, Mizzou comes off a bye week before playing A&M while A&M is coming off of a game against Auburn. Conversely, Mizzou plays UT right after A&M while UT will be coming off of UK and a bye week before that.
Mizzou finishes out the season against Arkansas at home. Is there a rivalry there? Dunno. Those things can’t be forced and don’t occur overnight. Having said that, I think these games will be fun games between the two schools every year regardless of how the teams have played in any given season. This year, I think Mizzou gets the win at home while Bert continues to show improvement at Arky.
Keys to Success
If the first two seasons in the SEC has taught anything to Mizzou, the biggest key to success is first and foremost health. And a little luck. Mizzou has been on both sides of that issue and while they’ve added depth, ultimately staying healthy will play a huge role in how the season goes.
Next in line may be starting the season with 4 OOC games. Mizzou is relatively young at several key positions and the game experience and confidence gained by setting the schedule in this fashion may pay off. It will give Mauk an opportunity to establish himself and develop chemistry with new receivers. It will give those receivers an opportunity to establish themselves and see who is going to step up this year. It will give Mizzou an opportunity to sort out their moving parts at LB. All before their first conference game.
Outlook
Taking everything into consideration, one would anticipate a season better than year 1 but not as strong as year 2. Looking at the schedule, there doesn’t appear to be any games that one would chalk up to a loss before the games are even played, such as Alabama two seasons ago.
Should be wins: South Dakota State, @Toledo, UCF, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas.
Toss ups: @SC, UGA, @UF, @A&M, @UT
Win 3 of 5 toss ups = 10-2
Win 2 of 5 toss ups = 9-3
As for winning the east…no way to predict anyone until week 14. UGA, SC and Mizzou certainly seem like they should be in the mix given team make up and schedules. UF's schedule may just be too tough.
The schedule isn’t quite as favorable for Mizzou this year as it was last year, not so much for the opponents they play (@A&M and Arky as opposed to A&M and @OM last year) but for who their opponents play in the weeks leading up to the Mizzou game. What does stay the same is 4 OOC games to open the season, which should get Mizzou off to a fast 4-0 start while getting some much needed experience under them.
Week 5 will be a big week for Mizzou as arguably their toughest game will be @SC. Last year left a bitter taste in fans’ mouths. Losing 2 in a row left a bitter taste in fans’ mouths. Can Mizzou show up in the other Columbia and steal a win? Certainly. Will they? Time will tell, but this game could shape the season for Mizzou going forward if they could manage to find a win.
Mizzou will then get a bye week to recover before playing UGA at home and @UF, making for probably their toughest stretch on the schedule. While both games are winnable for Mizzou, both are certainly losable as well. While SC and UGA have both put Vandy immediately before Mizzou (a change from last year), UF still has LSU the week before Mizzou and @UT before that, which may be to Mizzou’s benefit if last year is any predictor.
Mizzou should follow that stretch up with wins over Vandy and UK at home followed by a bye week before going to A&M and to UT. It is difficult to know what to expect out of A&M this year but Mizzou is certainly familiar with going to Kyle Field. As much as A&M and UT fans probably see these games as wins for their teams, Mizzou fans certainly feel these games are wins for the Tigers, which means they should be fun, competitive games to watch. If one looks for an edge in these games, Mizzou comes off a bye week before playing A&M while A&M is coming off of a game against Auburn. Conversely, Mizzou plays UT right after A&M while UT will be coming off of UK and a bye week before that.
Mizzou finishes out the season against Arkansas at home. Is there a rivalry there? Dunno. Those things can’t be forced and don’t occur overnight. Having said that, I think these games will be fun games between the two schools every year regardless of how the teams have played in any given season. This year, I think Mizzou gets the win at home while Bert continues to show improvement at Arky.
Keys to Success
If the first two seasons in the SEC has taught anything to Mizzou, the biggest key to success is first and foremost health. And a little luck. Mizzou has been on both sides of that issue and while they’ve added depth, ultimately staying healthy will play a huge role in how the season goes.
Next in line may be starting the season with 4 OOC games. Mizzou is relatively young at several key positions and the game experience and confidence gained by setting the schedule in this fashion may pay off. It will give Mauk an opportunity to establish himself and develop chemistry with new receivers. It will give those receivers an opportunity to establish themselves and see who is going to step up this year. It will give Mizzou an opportunity to sort out their moving parts at LB. All before their first conference game.
Outlook
Taking everything into consideration, one would anticipate a season better than year 1 but not as strong as year 2. Looking at the schedule, there doesn’t appear to be any games that one would chalk up to a loss before the games are even played, such as Alabama two seasons ago.
Should be wins: South Dakota State, @Toledo, UCF, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas.
Toss ups: @SC, UGA, @UF, @A&M, @UT
Win 3 of 5 toss ups = 10-2
Win 2 of 5 toss ups = 9-3
As for winning the east…no way to predict anyone until week 14. UGA, SC and Mizzou certainly seem like they should be in the mix given team make up and schedules. UF's schedule may just be too tough.
This post was edited on 8/24/14 at 3:29 pm
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