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re: FPRC's Florida Gators 2014 Football Preview

Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:16 pm to
Posted by semotruman
Member since Nov 2011
23179 posts
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:16 pm to
Analysis of 2014 Gator Defense

Defensive Coaches and philosophy:

D.J. Durkin, Defensive Coordinator/LB
Brad Lawing, Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Line
Travaris Robinson, Defensive Backs

The Florida defense under Will Muschamp has finished in the top 10 nationally in total defense all three years he has been head coach. That is pretty impressive, especially when you consider the injury situation in 2013 and the general lack of depth in 2011.

For those that don't know, Florida lines up in the nickel a lot. Maybe 70% of the time, but they basically have a base 3-4 defense for lack of a better way of describing it. They typically will play 3 defensive linemen, 3 LBs, (Mike, Sam, Will) and then one hybrid LB/DE or "Buck" position who will predominantly rush the passer. Because of this, even in the nickel formation (where UF has 5 defensive backs) even though on TV it might look like they are lining up with 4 DL, they actually usually have 1 buck, 3 DL, 2 LB, and 5 DB. This allows for a lot of flexibility in the defense. UF plays predominantly man defense.

Florida in 2012 was one of the most dominant defenses in the entire country, and a lot of that was because of their toughness in the 2nd half. Muschamp's teams have proven to be very good at adapting, especially in the 2nd half, to what teams are trying to do. Last year in 2013, they had a horrible final 6 games, especially in the 2nd half, but that was primarily due to injuries and a lack of depth, especially in the front 7.

Here is an example against Miami of their basic nickel package - (note you can't see the 11th man, which is a safety that is playing deep) LINK

Example of Florida's nickel defense - It looks like a 3-3-5 that they're showing against LSU, but Ronald Powell, one of the Bucks, is standing up. There are 5 DB's 2 bucks really, but Fowler has his hand on the ground, 2 LB and 1 nose and 1 DT/DE in Bullard. LINK

Example of UF's based defense, 1 buck, 3 LB, 3 linemen, 4 Dbs. One of the corners is off the picture. LINK UF has 8 guys in the box here, against LSU. LINK

Great view of UF in their pressure man defense - LINK

UF doesn't blitz a ton, they prefer to get pressure with the front 4, but here is an example of the corner blitz they like to run sometimes - LINK

Areas to watch for 2014:

1. 3rd down defense

Florida's defense has consistently been among the best in the country in 3rd down defense. They were #2 in 2011 and #10 in 2012. However, they had a lot of trouble in the 2nd half of the 2013 season getting people off the field.

First 5 games - allowed 15 of 61 conversions (22%)
Final 7 games - allowed 36 of 89 conversions (41%)

And a lot of the 3rd down conversions were huge, clutch conversions, that UF could not afford given their lack of depth. That is something that UF is going to have to improve upon if they want to get back to having the best defense in the conference.

2. Rush defense

Florida needs to play tougher in 2014. The rush defense especially was vulnerable in the 2nd half of the season. Some of that was because of depth on the DL, but Mike Taylor and Antonio Morrison have got to play tougher against the run. I think the following pretty much sums up how the defense played most of the 2nd half of 2013:



3. Pass Rush and big plays

Florida only had 19 sacks (good for #94) and 18 take aways (#95 nationally) in 2013. They just didn't do a good job rushing the passer, and they didn't take advantage of turnover opportunities when they presented themselves. It just wasn't a big play defense in the 2nd half of the season. A lot of that was depth, but some of it was just execution. If UF wants to win the east they need more big plays.

Quick example against Missouri: Easy INT dropped

4. Youth in the secondary

The secondary has consistently been one of UF's best position groups under Will Muschamp. But that unit will be very much tested this year.

From a career experience perspective, UF has lost the following from the secondary between 2013 and 2014:

175 career games played, and 91 career starts. That is a ridiculous amount of experience to lose in the secondary.

The players were Louchiez Purifoy, Marcus Roberson, Jaylen Watkins, and Cody Riggs.

It is a testament to how good the secondary has been year after year, that people aren't looking for a huge drop off in this unit in 2014. Once again though, young players are stepping up. Duke Dawson and Jalen Tabor are both true freshmen that practiced and played well in the spring. Dawson has played so much above expectations that the fact that Tabor, a former 5 star, has been a bit inconsistent, doesn't even really matter, because he will be in a back up role. The good news is he played a lot better towards the end of spring. Many are predicting he will steal Dawson's starting spot by the end of Fall camp.

The safety position is also loaded with talent. But it's young. Only Gorman, a senior, really has a lot of starts. Marcus Maye has played a lot, but only started twice. He lost his starting job in 2013 against Miami after he gave up a long TD by blowing the coverage.

Everyone is saying Keanu Neal is the next great safety at Florida, but injuries held him back a bit in the spring, and Marcell Harris is big, fast, and scary. They are all young though. That youth will have to step up in a big way if UF wants to have the #1 PE defense in the SEC once again. (they were #1 in 2012 and 2013)

I don't know if it's worth mentioning, but having a guy like VH3, who may very well end up being one of the better DB's at Florida EVER, really does help.
Posted by semotruman
Member since Nov 2011
23179 posts
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:17 pm to
Analysis of 2014 Gator Special Teams

2013 Review

The 2013 special teams were not as bad as people make out. Yeah, the kicking game, specifically FG kicking, was not good, but the rest of the special teams were solid, just like 2012. Here are the stats from 2013:

2013 KR Defense: #7 nationally, 18.00 Yards per return
2013 PR Defense: #13 nationally, 3.77 Yards per return
2013 Kick returns: #10, 24.82 yards per return, 1 TD
2013 Punt returns: #37, 10.36 yards per return

That is pretty damn solid, and they did that without their best return man (Andre Debose) who was out all year and they lost some of their best special teams players, (Nick Washington, Jeremi Powell, Keanu Neal) to injury.

Areas where they were not good

Punting: #62 nationally, 36.78 yards per punt

That is REALLY surprising when you consider Kyle Christy broke Florida records with his amazing 2012 campaign and 45.8 average punt, and then really came in not playing well in 2013 and was eventually benched for true freshman Johnny Townsend.

Well, it appears things are looking better for Christy, who has reclaimed his starting spot, so things look brighter in 2014, but they weren't so great in 2013.

Kicking

OK, so Florida was 8-8 on FG's kicks between 20-29 yards. That's great. Yippy. That's like an extra point.

Florida was 3-6 on FG's kicked form 30-39 yards. Not good. Florida was 1-8 on FG's kicked from further than 40 yards away. That is REALLY BAD. Especially for a team that couldn't score.

For those that suck at math, that means UF's 3 kickers they tried, were a combined 12-22. That's really bad.

Here's an amazing stat for you about how unlucky Florida was last year - Florida's opponents were 22-23 on FG's against them last year. That is nuts. Opponents were 8-8 from 40 yards or more. Also hilariously high. The only FG that an opponent didn't make was the 1 that UF blocked.

2014 prospects

The KR and PR defense should both be very good units again. UF hired Coleman Hutzler to coach the special teams and he has a good pedigree doing it, and he has a lot of fast, tough athletes to choose from on the defense teams. Those units have all been consistently good for Florida for many many years, and no one sees that changing, especially with another strong 2014 recruiting class coming in with lots of people hungry to see the field.

The KR and PR units both look dangerous, although it is still unclear who exactly will return punts. It would be great to have VH3 back there, but so scary also, because you really don't want to see him get injured. It'll probably be Alvin Bailey or Demarcus Robinson, and in either case, it's a big play waiting to happen. Neither have done it before in a live game, so it'll be interesting to see if they can handle the pressure.

Muschamp has said he is very confident in Austin Hardin as the 2014 kicker. He was only 4-12 in 2013, but he was 4-4 in the spring game and Muschamp said at SEC media days that he is very confident from inside the 30 yard line (about a 47 yard kick). So things are looking up there.

The punting situation is going to be a strength in 2014, with Christy regaining his form and retaking the starting position. The coaches hope to redshirt Townsend.

All in all, this should be a very strong special teams unit once again.

Bonus Stat

Blocked kicks: Florida blocked 12 punts/kicks between 2011 and 2012. They only blocked 2 in 2013, but also had 2 blocked. Hopefully UF will get back to having big plays in this department in 2014.
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