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FPRC's Florida Gators 2014 Football Preview
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:11 pm
The Football Power Rankings Committee presents to tRant:
2014 University of Florida Football Preview
2013 Recap
I hated 2013 Florida football. It was painful. It was hard to watch.
Florida lost a ridiculous number of players to injury in 2013 - which was chronicled in detail here: Players missing games and snaps
It started in fall camp, and it impacted critically important players:
? Chaz Green: a guy that had started at RT for 2 years... gone.
? Andre Debose: Poised to have a break-out season, and already tied for the career lead in SEC KO returns... gone, non contact ACL.
? Jeff Driskel: Appendicitis - misses most of fall camp.
? Matt Jones: Viral infection. Misses Fall camp, loses 20 pounds, not even close to being the same guy as before.
In-game injuries were ridiculous too:
? At one point against Miami, UF was missing 4 OL starters in the 2nd half.
? Against LSU, DT Damien Jacobs goes down in the 2nd quarter, and with UF already missing Easley, they only 6 DL play the rest of the game, and they got worn out in the 2nd half of that eventual loss.
? Things were even worse the next week against Missouri, when Powell was also out, and Jacobs was still hurt, and UF only played 5 DL most of that game.
UF started three different QB's in 2013 and the only reason Mornhinweg wasn't hurt also is because Pease was merciful and barely threw the ball more than 5 yards after quick drops, and only when absolutely necessary once Skyler took over. Some of that also had to do with Skyler's noodle arm (which I think is kind of exaggerated negatively, it's not that bad) but really, there wasn't much else anyone can do.
To add insult to injury, Muschamp and company planned on surprising FSU with a wildcat package all day with Trey Burton, and after his first play, a 50 yard run, he got hurt and missed the rest of the game. That's just kind of how the 2013 season went for Florida. Just bad fricken luck all year long.
I think UF only played three really bad games last year though. I think they fought hard against LSU, Mizzou, FSU, UGA, and USCe, but they just didn't play well against Miami, Georgia Southern, and Vanderbilt.
Even with the injuries, UF should probably have won each of those (they outgained Vanderbilt and Miami by a lot, 413-212 against Miami and 344-183 against Vanderbilt. But UF had 9 turnovers and 7 sacks combined in those two games.
Oh and this happened...
Analysis of 2014 Gator Offense
Offensive coaches:
Chris Leak, Wide Receivers
Derek Lewis, Tight Ends
Kurt Roper, Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks
Mike Summers, Offensive Line
Brian White, Running Backs
Thoughts on the offensive coaches:
First of all, I think we can say, without a lot of hesitation, that this, on paper, looks to be the best offensive coaching staff that UF has had since about 2008. The only real questions are:
1. Can Chris Leak be an effective WR coach? Losing Joker Phillips probably helps the staff from a "teamwork" perspective, but there is no way Leak can replace the amount of experience Joker possessed when it came to actually teaching the WR's. All reports though, are that Leak and Roper work extremely well together, and that kind of teamwork between WR coach and OC hasn't been alive and well in Gainesville since Billy Gonzalez and Dan Mullen were working together. PS: Fun fact, Andre Debose has been on the team for 6 years and this is his 6th WR coach in that time. EGADS. Good luck Chris Leak.... history says your days are numbered....
2. How good is Kurt Roper? There has been a lot of debate on this point, very similar to when Pease was hired. How much of Roper's success was because of Cutcliffe? Time will tell. Based on how fast he was able to install the offense in the spring and all the positive reviews about the offense, optimism is high. That being said, Florida fans have a bit of learned helplessness when it comes to the offense now, so most won't believe the offense is better until they see it on the field. All evidence at this point is positive however.
3. How will the offensive line play? The offensive line has been, basically a shite storm of injuries and underachievement for Muschamp's entire tenure. Enter Mike Summers, one of the more respected OL coaches in the country. This one position has probably been the achilles heel of the UF teams in 2011 and 2013, but if Summers can bring the same kind of energy and resurgence that he brought to USC in 2013, then the entire offense will see marked improvement in 2014. And if that happens, UF's offense could improve dramatically.
Video of the offense:
Here are some videos of the Duke highlights from last year:
A good example of one of the rush formations is here at the 1:51 mark - note the B position player is lined up in the backfield, QB is in the shotgun, and there are 3 WR. UF will almost always line up with 3 WR under Roper - LINK
UF will also sometimes line up with 4 WR and also have the RB go out to catch a pass. Here is a good example from Duke vs North Carolina - LINK
The following video's first two plays show two things - first of all - Florida will definitely use play action passes with the B position in the backfield. Most teams will be forced to put at least 7 guys up by the LOS to stop the run, so that will leave 3 WR against 4 DB's, which means single coverage in different parts of the field depending on how the defense is playing (zone vs man, cover 3 vs cover 4 etc.) IT will be imperative that UF's WR win some one-on-one battles this year or this offense just will NOT work. That being said, they will have a lot of opportunities. LINK
Also in that same video, the 2nd play shows how UF is probably going to work most of the time in the red zone - an area that UF was really bad at last season only scoring about 68% of the time. LINK It's the same basic formation, but there will be a lot more running from the QB position. Don't be surprised if incoming true freshman Treon Harris doesn't get on to the field in these situations as a running QB. He is very elusive and makes good decisions on the read option. Of course, we will need to see how he acclimates when he arrives in the fall. Here is another example. LINK
Here's an example of Roper putting a player in motion and going 5 wide. LINK
Another red zone example - Driskel is going to be running A LOT in 2014 - LINK
Another basic running example - 5 OL, 1 B position, 1 RB, 3 WR. Teams without dominant Defensive lines will have to do this, to account for the QB possibly running, in order not to be outnumbered. That means the 3 WR are in single coverage. LINK
Another formation - 4 WR, all close to the OL. LINK
2014 University of Florida Football Preview
2013 Recap
I hated 2013 Florida football. It was painful. It was hard to watch.
Florida lost a ridiculous number of players to injury in 2013 - which was chronicled in detail here: Players missing games and snaps
It started in fall camp, and it impacted critically important players:
? Chaz Green: a guy that had started at RT for 2 years... gone.
? Andre Debose: Poised to have a break-out season, and already tied for the career lead in SEC KO returns... gone, non contact ACL.
? Jeff Driskel: Appendicitis - misses most of fall camp.
? Matt Jones: Viral infection. Misses Fall camp, loses 20 pounds, not even close to being the same guy as before.
In-game injuries were ridiculous too:
? At one point against Miami, UF was missing 4 OL starters in the 2nd half.
? Against LSU, DT Damien Jacobs goes down in the 2nd quarter, and with UF already missing Easley, they only 6 DL play the rest of the game, and they got worn out in the 2nd half of that eventual loss.
? Things were even worse the next week against Missouri, when Powell was also out, and Jacobs was still hurt, and UF only played 5 DL most of that game.
UF started three different QB's in 2013 and the only reason Mornhinweg wasn't hurt also is because Pease was merciful and barely threw the ball more than 5 yards after quick drops, and only when absolutely necessary once Skyler took over. Some of that also had to do with Skyler's noodle arm (which I think is kind of exaggerated negatively, it's not that bad) but really, there wasn't much else anyone can do.
To add insult to injury, Muschamp and company planned on surprising FSU with a wildcat package all day with Trey Burton, and after his first play, a 50 yard run, he got hurt and missed the rest of the game. That's just kind of how the 2013 season went for Florida. Just bad fricken luck all year long.
I think UF only played three really bad games last year though. I think they fought hard against LSU, Mizzou, FSU, UGA, and USCe, but they just didn't play well against Miami, Georgia Southern, and Vanderbilt.
Even with the injuries, UF should probably have won each of those (they outgained Vanderbilt and Miami by a lot, 413-212 against Miami and 344-183 against Vanderbilt. But UF had 9 turnovers and 7 sacks combined in those two games.
Oh and this happened...
Analysis of 2014 Gator Offense
Offensive coaches:
Chris Leak, Wide Receivers
Derek Lewis, Tight Ends
Kurt Roper, Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks
Mike Summers, Offensive Line
Brian White, Running Backs
Thoughts on the offensive coaches:
First of all, I think we can say, without a lot of hesitation, that this, on paper, looks to be the best offensive coaching staff that UF has had since about 2008. The only real questions are:
1. Can Chris Leak be an effective WR coach? Losing Joker Phillips probably helps the staff from a "teamwork" perspective, but there is no way Leak can replace the amount of experience Joker possessed when it came to actually teaching the WR's. All reports though, are that Leak and Roper work extremely well together, and that kind of teamwork between WR coach and OC hasn't been alive and well in Gainesville since Billy Gonzalez and Dan Mullen were working together. PS: Fun fact, Andre Debose has been on the team for 6 years and this is his 6th WR coach in that time. EGADS. Good luck Chris Leak.... history says your days are numbered....
2. How good is Kurt Roper? There has been a lot of debate on this point, very similar to when Pease was hired. How much of Roper's success was because of Cutcliffe? Time will tell. Based on how fast he was able to install the offense in the spring and all the positive reviews about the offense, optimism is high. That being said, Florida fans have a bit of learned helplessness when it comes to the offense now, so most won't believe the offense is better until they see it on the field. All evidence at this point is positive however.
3. How will the offensive line play? The offensive line has been, basically a shite storm of injuries and underachievement for Muschamp's entire tenure. Enter Mike Summers, one of the more respected OL coaches in the country. This one position has probably been the achilles heel of the UF teams in 2011 and 2013, but if Summers can bring the same kind of energy and resurgence that he brought to USC in 2013, then the entire offense will see marked improvement in 2014. And if that happens, UF's offense could improve dramatically.
Video of the offense:
Here are some videos of the Duke highlights from last year:
A good example of one of the rush formations is here at the 1:51 mark - note the B position player is lined up in the backfield, QB is in the shotgun, and there are 3 WR. UF will almost always line up with 3 WR under Roper - LINK
UF will also sometimes line up with 4 WR and also have the RB go out to catch a pass. Here is a good example from Duke vs North Carolina - LINK
The following video's first two plays show two things - first of all - Florida will definitely use play action passes with the B position in the backfield. Most teams will be forced to put at least 7 guys up by the LOS to stop the run, so that will leave 3 WR against 4 DB's, which means single coverage in different parts of the field depending on how the defense is playing (zone vs man, cover 3 vs cover 4 etc.) IT will be imperative that UF's WR win some one-on-one battles this year or this offense just will NOT work. That being said, they will have a lot of opportunities. LINK
Also in that same video, the 2nd play shows how UF is probably going to work most of the time in the red zone - an area that UF was really bad at last season only scoring about 68% of the time. LINK It's the same basic formation, but there will be a lot more running from the QB position. Don't be surprised if incoming true freshman Treon Harris doesn't get on to the field in these situations as a running QB. He is very elusive and makes good decisions on the read option. Of course, we will need to see how he acclimates when he arrives in the fall. Here is another example. LINK
Here's an example of Roper putting a player in motion and going 5 wide. LINK
Another red zone example - Driskel is going to be running A LOT in 2014 - LINK
Another basic running example - 5 OL, 1 B position, 1 RB, 3 WR. Teams without dominant Defensive lines will have to do this, to account for the QB possibly running, in order not to be outnumbered. That means the 3 WR are in single coverage. LINK
Another formation - 4 WR, all close to the OL. LINK
This post was edited on 8/13/14 at 8:10 am
2
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:16 pm to semotruman
Analysis of 2014 Gator Defense
Defensive Coaches and philosophy:
D.J. Durkin, Defensive Coordinator/LB
Brad Lawing, Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Line
Travaris Robinson, Defensive Backs
The Florida defense under Will Muschamp has finished in the top 10 nationally in total defense all three years he has been head coach. That is pretty impressive, especially when you consider the injury situation in 2013 and the general lack of depth in 2011.
For those that don't know, Florida lines up in the nickel a lot. Maybe 70% of the time, but they basically have a base 3-4 defense for lack of a better way of describing it. They typically will play 3 defensive linemen, 3 LBs, (Mike, Sam, Will) and then one hybrid LB/DE or "Buck" position who will predominantly rush the passer. Because of this, even in the nickel formation (where UF has 5 defensive backs) even though on TV it might look like they are lining up with 4 DL, they actually usually have 1 buck, 3 DL, 2 LB, and 5 DB. This allows for a lot of flexibility in the defense. UF plays predominantly man defense.
Florida in 2012 was one of the most dominant defenses in the entire country, and a lot of that was because of their toughness in the 2nd half. Muschamp's teams have proven to be very good at adapting, especially in the 2nd half, to what teams are trying to do. Last year in 2013, they had a horrible final 6 games, especially in the 2nd half, but that was primarily due to injuries and a lack of depth, especially in the front 7.
Here is an example against Miami of their basic nickel package - (note you can't see the 11th man, which is a safety that is playing deep) LINK
Example of Florida's nickel defense - It looks like a 3-3-5 that they're showing against LSU, but Ronald Powell, one of the Bucks, is standing up. There are 5 DB's 2 bucks really, but Fowler has his hand on the ground, 2 LB and 1 nose and 1 DT/DE in Bullard. LINK
Example of UF's based defense, 1 buck, 3 LB, 3 linemen, 4 Dbs. One of the corners is off the picture. LINK UF has 8 guys in the box here, against LSU. LINK
Great view of UF in their pressure man defense - LINK
UF doesn't blitz a ton, they prefer to get pressure with the front 4, but here is an example of the corner blitz they like to run sometimes - LINK
Areas to watch for 2014:
1. 3rd down defense
Florida's defense has consistently been among the best in the country in 3rd down defense. They were #2 in 2011 and #10 in 2012. However, they had a lot of trouble in the 2nd half of the 2013 season getting people off the field.
First 5 games - allowed 15 of 61 conversions (22%)
Final 7 games - allowed 36 of 89 conversions (41%)
And a lot of the 3rd down conversions were huge, clutch conversions, that UF could not afford given their lack of depth. That is something that UF is going to have to improve upon if they want to get back to having the best defense in the conference.
2. Rush defense
Florida needs to play tougher in 2014. The rush defense especially was vulnerable in the 2nd half of the season. Some of that was because of depth on the DL, but Mike Taylor and Antonio Morrison have got to play tougher against the run. I think the following pretty much sums up how the defense played most of the 2nd half of 2013:
3. Pass Rush and big plays
Florida only had 19 sacks (good for #94) and 18 take aways (#95 nationally) in 2013. They just didn't do a good job rushing the passer, and they didn't take advantage of turnover opportunities when they presented themselves. It just wasn't a big play defense in the 2nd half of the season. A lot of that was depth, but some of it was just execution. If UF wants to win the east they need more big plays.
Quick example against Missouri: Easy INT dropped
4. Youth in the secondary
The secondary has consistently been one of UF's best position groups under Will Muschamp. But that unit will be very much tested this year.
From a career experience perspective, UF has lost the following from the secondary between 2013 and 2014:
175 career games played, and 91 career starts. That is a ridiculous amount of experience to lose in the secondary.
The players were Louchiez Purifoy, Marcus Roberson, Jaylen Watkins, and Cody Riggs.
It is a testament to how good the secondary has been year after year, that people aren't looking for a huge drop off in this unit in 2014. Once again though, young players are stepping up. Duke Dawson and Jalen Tabor are both true freshmen that practiced and played well in the spring. Dawson has played so much above expectations that the fact that Tabor, a former 5 star, has been a bit inconsistent, doesn't even really matter, because he will be in a back up role. The good news is he played a lot better towards the end of spring. Many are predicting he will steal Dawson's starting spot by the end of Fall camp.
The safety position is also loaded with talent. But it's young. Only Gorman, a senior, really has a lot of starts. Marcus Maye has played a lot, but only started twice. He lost his starting job in 2013 against Miami after he gave up a long TD by blowing the coverage.
Everyone is saying Keanu Neal is the next great safety at Florida, but injuries held him back a bit in the spring, and Marcell Harris is big, fast, and scary. They are all young though. That youth will have to step up in a big way if UF wants to have the #1 PE defense in the SEC once again. (they were #1 in 2012 and 2013)
I don't know if it's worth mentioning, but having a guy like VH3, who may very well end up being one of the better DB's at Florida EVER, really does help.
Defensive Coaches and philosophy:
D.J. Durkin, Defensive Coordinator/LB
Brad Lawing, Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Line
Travaris Robinson, Defensive Backs
The Florida defense under Will Muschamp has finished in the top 10 nationally in total defense all three years he has been head coach. That is pretty impressive, especially when you consider the injury situation in 2013 and the general lack of depth in 2011.
For those that don't know, Florida lines up in the nickel a lot. Maybe 70% of the time, but they basically have a base 3-4 defense for lack of a better way of describing it. They typically will play 3 defensive linemen, 3 LBs, (Mike, Sam, Will) and then one hybrid LB/DE or "Buck" position who will predominantly rush the passer. Because of this, even in the nickel formation (where UF has 5 defensive backs) even though on TV it might look like they are lining up with 4 DL, they actually usually have 1 buck, 3 DL, 2 LB, and 5 DB. This allows for a lot of flexibility in the defense. UF plays predominantly man defense.
Florida in 2012 was one of the most dominant defenses in the entire country, and a lot of that was because of their toughness in the 2nd half. Muschamp's teams have proven to be very good at adapting, especially in the 2nd half, to what teams are trying to do. Last year in 2013, they had a horrible final 6 games, especially in the 2nd half, but that was primarily due to injuries and a lack of depth, especially in the front 7.
Here is an example against Miami of their basic nickel package - (note you can't see the 11th man, which is a safety that is playing deep) LINK
Example of Florida's nickel defense - It looks like a 3-3-5 that they're showing against LSU, but Ronald Powell, one of the Bucks, is standing up. There are 5 DB's 2 bucks really, but Fowler has his hand on the ground, 2 LB and 1 nose and 1 DT/DE in Bullard. LINK
Example of UF's based defense, 1 buck, 3 LB, 3 linemen, 4 Dbs. One of the corners is off the picture. LINK UF has 8 guys in the box here, against LSU. LINK
Great view of UF in their pressure man defense - LINK
UF doesn't blitz a ton, they prefer to get pressure with the front 4, but here is an example of the corner blitz they like to run sometimes - LINK
Areas to watch for 2014:
1. 3rd down defense
Florida's defense has consistently been among the best in the country in 3rd down defense. They were #2 in 2011 and #10 in 2012. However, they had a lot of trouble in the 2nd half of the 2013 season getting people off the field.
First 5 games - allowed 15 of 61 conversions (22%)
Final 7 games - allowed 36 of 89 conversions (41%)
And a lot of the 3rd down conversions were huge, clutch conversions, that UF could not afford given their lack of depth. That is something that UF is going to have to improve upon if they want to get back to having the best defense in the conference.
2. Rush defense
Florida needs to play tougher in 2014. The rush defense especially was vulnerable in the 2nd half of the season. Some of that was because of depth on the DL, but Mike Taylor and Antonio Morrison have got to play tougher against the run. I think the following pretty much sums up how the defense played most of the 2nd half of 2013:
3. Pass Rush and big plays
Florida only had 19 sacks (good for #94) and 18 take aways (#95 nationally) in 2013. They just didn't do a good job rushing the passer, and they didn't take advantage of turnover opportunities when they presented themselves. It just wasn't a big play defense in the 2nd half of the season. A lot of that was depth, but some of it was just execution. If UF wants to win the east they need more big plays.
Quick example against Missouri: Easy INT dropped
4. Youth in the secondary
The secondary has consistently been one of UF's best position groups under Will Muschamp. But that unit will be very much tested this year.
From a career experience perspective, UF has lost the following from the secondary between 2013 and 2014:
175 career games played, and 91 career starts. That is a ridiculous amount of experience to lose in the secondary.
The players were Louchiez Purifoy, Marcus Roberson, Jaylen Watkins, and Cody Riggs.
It is a testament to how good the secondary has been year after year, that people aren't looking for a huge drop off in this unit in 2014. Once again though, young players are stepping up. Duke Dawson and Jalen Tabor are both true freshmen that practiced and played well in the spring. Dawson has played so much above expectations that the fact that Tabor, a former 5 star, has been a bit inconsistent, doesn't even really matter, because he will be in a back up role. The good news is he played a lot better towards the end of spring. Many are predicting he will steal Dawson's starting spot by the end of Fall camp.
The safety position is also loaded with talent. But it's young. Only Gorman, a senior, really has a lot of starts. Marcus Maye has played a lot, but only started twice. He lost his starting job in 2013 against Miami after he gave up a long TD by blowing the coverage.
Everyone is saying Keanu Neal is the next great safety at Florida, but injuries held him back a bit in the spring, and Marcell Harris is big, fast, and scary. They are all young though. That youth will have to step up in a big way if UF wants to have the #1 PE defense in the SEC once again. (they were #1 in 2012 and 2013)
I don't know if it's worth mentioning, but having a guy like VH3, who may very well end up being one of the better DB's at Florida EVER, really does help.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 6:56 pm to semotruman
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