re: The Relaxation Chamber: Limited Severe Risk MS/AL/GA/TN

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Basically yes you weren't paying attention. The two tornado allies have similar factors but the southern states are closer to the wealth of gulf moisture.

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Also, tornadoes can occur year round along the gulf but the cold season basically shuts down the plains. Then combine that with the differences in population density and you have more opportunities for headline generating storms in the South. However, Tornado Alley is still going to see more tornadoes on average but most are out in the middle of no where.

A couple of thoughts on next weeks threat, the models are still struggling with the evolution of the trough but it certainly looks like there will be a western trough. The GFS is more progressive than the Euro but we saw that all winter.



The more progressive GFS has been trending towards a positively tilted trough, which would probably limit the tornado threat to dry line action before the main trough kicks out. The Euro digs deeper and eventually cuts off a low in the SW before opening up and kicking out with a positive tilt. We saw this all winter and the trend was usually towards a compromise. So there will probably be a couple of days with conditional tornado setups but the main threat will be a squall line pushing through. Of course, this can and will probably all change over the weekend