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re: Another Early Heisman Prediction Thread

Posted on 2/10/14 at 10:33 am to
Posted by msu202020
Member since Feb 2011
4143 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 10:33 am to
quote:

3rec 69yds 3TD


Don't see this happening.

quote:

He's got to throw for about 3500 next year


I just don't see us throwing it enough for this to happen.

We would need to go probably 11-1 for Dak to make it to New York.
Posted by engie
Member since Jan 2012
8953 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 11:16 am to
quote:

Don't see this happening.

It happened twice this year -- both times for TDs. We're going to run that play with Lewis a couple of times next year for sure until someone proves they can stop it...

quote:

I just don't see us throwing it enough for this to happen.

Will depend on the development of the receivers and his continued development as a passer. 3500 yards is an average of 270ypg through the air -- a number Dak was around in 3 of his last 4 starts. The one that he wasn't close(aTm), Russell essentially took 14 throws away from him.

We averaged 33.0 throws per game this year -- a number inflated by Russell but deflated by our early lack of trust in Dak and Damien's pt being largely run-first. So, cancel those out, and I think we throw about 30-35 times per game again this year. Dak was at 7.3 yards/attempt last year(12.44 yards per completion). If he simply gets his completion percentage up another 6-8%, while throwing the same length passes and staying in for 95ish% of overall snaps, that's between 258 and 266 completions for a total of between 3205 and 3309 yards. If he can tack on an extra yard per completion(where the receivers come in), that gets us to about 3500 yards...

It's asking alot -- and certainly should not be expected. But it not is totally outside the realm of possibility either.
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