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re: Another Early Heisman Prediction Thread

Posted on 2/10/14 at 10:16 am to
Posted by engie
Member since Jan 2012
8953 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 10:16 am to
quote:

I think this is unlikely. Do you really think state will be a 10 win team? I know tebow won with a bunch of losses but to do that you have to clearly, far and away be the best player in America.


Tebow won at 9-3. RG3 won at 9-3.

Tebow stats that year(as a trSO):
210 rushes 895yds 23TD 4.26AVG
234-350(66.9%) 3286yds 32TD 6INT
Tebow played 560 of 586 total plays(95.56%). He was only out for 26 plays all year.

RG3 stats that year(as a rsJR):
179 rushes 699yds 10TD 3.91AVG
291-402(72.4%) 4293yds 37TD 6INT
RG3 played 581 of 608 total plays(95.55%). He was only out of the game for 27 plays all year.

Dak played 401 of 620 total plays(64.68%). He split a lot of time with Tyler Russell and missed basically 3 full games with injury. He also sat out the entire 4th quarter of several non conference games. He took about 30.88% less of his team's total snaps than RG3 and Tebow did.

Dak stats last year:
134 rushes 829yds 13TD 6.19AVG
156-267(58.4%) 1940yds 10TD 7INT
2rec 53yds 2TD

Extrapolated over a "full season" if he simply stays the same:
175 rushes 1085yds 17TD 6.19AVG
204-349(58.4%) 2539yds 13TD 9INT
3rec 69yds 3TD

Dak is in the conversation as a runner. His completion percentage needs to improve another 7-8%, he needs to cut down on the INTs, and he needs a couple of receivers to really, really step up and help him out. He's got to throw for about 3500 next year and account for alot more TDs through the air to have a legitimate chance. Also got to have a moment worthy of the Heisman in a big game -- which essentially means we've got to upset at least one of the big boys. All of that seems obtainable -- but it's alot to ask and certainly should go beyond any "expectation".
Posted by msu202020
Member since Feb 2011
4142 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 10:33 am to
quote:

3rec 69yds 3TD


Don't see this happening.

quote:

He's got to throw for about 3500 next year


I just don't see us throwing it enough for this to happen.

We would need to go probably 11-1 for Dak to make it to New York.
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