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re: Will AU have any success running on Bama??

Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:32 pm to
Posted by Sid E Walker
InsecureU ©
Member since Nov 2013
24043 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:32 pm to
If they can get to the corners and turn it upfield, it could be a long day. I don't think they can, and they certainly aren't going to get their yards up the middle.

They may do a little play action on the first possession just to mix it up early and try to show us that they'll try to throw.
Posted by Hater Bait
Tuscaloosa & Gulf Shores
Member since Nov 2012
2975 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:32 pm to
I like how preseason AU fans were only at best hoping for a New Years Day Bowl.

Now, they expect to whip Alabama's arse.

And they say Bama fans are unrealistic....
Posted by BuccWildBammer
AL
Member since Nov 2011
23336 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:33 pm to
...bluuueeee skies smiling at me, nothing but blue skies where ever I see
Posted by BuccWildBammer
AL
Member since Nov 2011
23336 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:34 pm to
quote:

Auburn will get more yards than Bama wants to give up.


I expect that...especially early on
Posted by Aubbieinyourgrill
Member since Dec 2009
345 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:34 pm to
Your post is illogical. Might want to rethink that one.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
106297 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:34 pm to
Yes that's it High Shool, Gimmicky, trick plays, you know





We have no chance in this game. Mickey's feet are too big.
Posted by Smoke7024
Member since Jun 2010
22998 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:35 pm to
Expectations change when you win. Tough concept?
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
64410 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:36 pm to
Not illogical. realistic.
Of course Bama would like to give up 0 yards, so 1 yard would be more than Bama wants to give up, but what I am talking about is Bama keeping it to their averages, but won't be able to.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
106297 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:36 pm to
You are mistaken. We are privileged to see our team even take the field with the vaunted Tide. Our team has no reason to be optimistic against such a stout team.
Posted by TTsTowel
RIP Bow9den/Coastie
Member since Feb 2010
91871 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:37 pm to
Nope, won't gain a single yard.
Posted by Itreallydoesmatter
Member since Mar 2011
949 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:37 pm to
auburn wins big. over by mid third qtr.
Posted by Hater Bait
Tuscaloosa & Gulf Shores
Member since Nov 2012
2975 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

Our team has no reason to be optimistic against such a stout team.


You're probably right.
Posted by TTsTowel
RIP Bow9den/Coastie
Member since Feb 2010
91871 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

Now, they expect to whip Alabama's arse.
You're getting trolled, hard.
Posted by Beer Bryant
In a Hidden Bunker
Member since Jan 2012
8792 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:38 pm to
quote:

I expect that...especially early on


Yeah, they're a 1st half team. With an extra week, I expect they'll have a decent 1st quarter.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
106297 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:38 pm to
Can't happen, AU isn't stout enough.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
106297 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:39 pm to
Probability doesn't come into play against the Tide. We have seen from many Bama fans it is a fact, and so it must be.
Posted by mre
Birmingham
Member since Feb 2009
3098 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:41 pm to
I posted this on the Bama board. Seems relevant, so I'll cross-post it if anyone's interested:

Okay, I've crunched the numbers for the Iron Bowl by looking at both Alabama and Auburn's performance against conference and "quality" out-of-conference opponents (VA Tech for Bama, and WSU for Auburn). The main goal of my analysis was to see how both teams performed, both offensively and defensively, against their opponents' averages. I can post the spreadsheet later if someone wants it, but here's what the numbers suggest that we might see in the Iron Bowl:

AU Rushing 150-180 yds
AU Rushing 1-2 TD
AU Passing 120-140 yds
AU Passing 0-1 TD
Total: 270-320 yds
1-3 TD

UA Rushing 200-250 yds
UA Rushing 2-3 TD
UA Passing 225-300 yds
UA Passing 1-2 TD
Total: 425-550 yds
3-5 TD

To explain the methodology briefly using an example: Auburn's rushing attack gained, on average, 1.46 times more yards than their opponents averaged giving up against the other teams they faced. They also scored, on average, 1.69 more rushing TDs than their opponents averaged giving up against other teams. For the year they averaged 286.125 yds and 3.125 TDs in these games.

Alabama's rushing defense, held their opponents, on average, to 0.63 times the amount of yards they gained against other teams. Alabama's rushing defense also held their opponents, on average, to 0.31 times the amount of TDs they scored against other teams. For the season, Alabama gave up an average of 105.63 yards and 0.63 TDs a game on the ground.

In order to come up with the range of yards that Auburn is predicted to rush for, I took Auburn's delta (1.69) and multiplied it times Alabama's average (105.63), and then took Alabama's delta (0.63) and multiplied it times Auburn's average (286.125). This gave me a range of 154.22 - 180.18 yards.

Personally, I think the only way we hold AU to below 200 yards rushing is if we jump on them early and force them to pass to try and catch up, but I thought that some here might find this interesting.

For comparison's sake, here are each team's straight average across these games:

AU Rushing 286.13 yds
AU Rushing 3.13 TD
AU Passing 175.25 yds
AU Passing 0.88 TD
Total: 461.38 yds; 4.01 TD

UA Rushing 228.5 yds
UA Rushing 2.38 TD
UA Passing 226.25 yds
UA Passing 2 TD
Total: 454.75 yds; 4.38 TD

Pretty damn close to each other in this chart.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
106297 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:43 pm to
Holy Bama book post. Now there really is no chance for Auburn. Sad banana face
This post was edited on 11/26/13 at 3:31 am
Posted by Hater Bait
Tuscaloosa & Gulf Shores
Member since Nov 2012
2975 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:44 pm to
quote:

mre


Nice work.

It will be a good game.

If both teams play their best game, who wins?
Posted by Master of Sinanju
Member since Feb 2012
11536 posts
Posted on 11/24/13 at 7:44 pm to
I think the AU offense is legit. They will get their yardage and score their points. The question in my mind is will the AU defense be able to adequately stop the Alabama offense.
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