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re: The Coach who never punts

Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:58 pm to
Posted by FourThreeForty
Member since May 2013
17290 posts
Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:58 pm to
Football is Xs and Os.


Not variables and percentages.
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
65147 posts
Posted on 11/14/13 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

Football is Xs and Os.


Not variables and percentages.



He gets it done. Since 2003 he is 124-22 running this style of football. That includes a 10-0 record heading into the playoffs this season as well as 3 state titles.

Posted by IAmReality
Member since Oct 2012
12229 posts
Posted on 11/14/13 at 11:19 pm to
quote:

Football is Xs and Os. Not variables and percentages.


Everything is numbers. Those X's and O's translate to numbers. You draw up good plays because they have a higher % chance of working. You recruit good defenders because they decrease the % chance of your opponent scoring, etc.

What people don't realize is, the aggressive strategy is better OVER THE LONG RUN.

You can't point to a single instance or play and say "OMG it didn't work that makes it a bad strategy"

Of course if you go for and don't make it the arm char QB's will be like "OMG YOU SHOULD HAVE PUNTED IT WTF!"

That's what they call 'results oriented' thinking.

You can't base the quality of the decision purely on a single individual result.

Sometimes the best play goes badly, that doesn't make it not bad. If something has a 99% chance of working and it doesn't work, should you not have called it?

Sometimes a bad play goes well, that doesn't make it good. If something has a 1% chance of working and it does, should you have called it?

Someone mentioned Hugh Freeze and Ole Miss against Bama earlier this year. I think his going for it was absolutely the best calls and maximized Ole Miss's chance of actually winning the game.

The underdog should always be very, very aggressive. When you're not as good you can't win straight up, you want high variance plays, etc.
This post was edited on 11/14/13 at 11:21 pm
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 11/15/13 at 4:55 am to
quote:

Football is Xs and Os.


Not variables and percentages.





Expected points can be mathematically figured out and sometimes a play call is correct and sometimes it is incorrect.

I bet some math wiz could whip up a program that could out coach most human coaches pretty easily using an EP system.
This post was edited on 11/15/13 at 4:56 am
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