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The Coach who never punts
Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:47 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGDaOJAYHfo
Some of you may have heard of this guy, high school coach out of Arkansas. He never punts, ever. Goes for an onsides kick almost every time as well. Goes for 2 almost every TD as well.
As crazy as this strategy sounds, it's actually frequently the mathematical best play.
Coaches punt on 4th down way, way, way too much.
The fundamental element at play behind all of it is simply that possession of the football is way more valuable and important than most coaches realize.
Giving away possesion of the ball voluntarily is therefore almost always quite stupid.
Each possesion is on average worth a certain number of points, you may average say 2.5 points per possesion. By giving up possesion you are costing yourself on average 2.5 points.
All punting does is reduce the chance the opponent scores on you, but almost never by enough to offset the the points you effectively lost.
So you may ask yourself, why haven't coaches everywhere adopted such a strategy? Simple.
Human nature.
Human beings have a strong preference for lower variance, lower risk plays, even when the higher variance, higher risk play is actually superior.
As such, the average fan and the media talking heads would crucify a coach who "gambled" so much as foolish and reckless, even though he's giving his team the best chance to win.
Some of you may have heard of this guy, high school coach out of Arkansas. He never punts, ever. Goes for an onsides kick almost every time as well. Goes for 2 almost every TD as well.
As crazy as this strategy sounds, it's actually frequently the mathematical best play.
Coaches punt on 4th down way, way, way too much.
The fundamental element at play behind all of it is simply that possession of the football is way more valuable and important than most coaches realize.
Giving away possesion of the ball voluntarily is therefore almost always quite stupid.
Each possesion is on average worth a certain number of points, you may average say 2.5 points per possesion. By giving up possesion you are costing yourself on average 2.5 points.
All punting does is reduce the chance the opponent scores on you, but almost never by enough to offset the the points you effectively lost.
So you may ask yourself, why haven't coaches everywhere adopted such a strategy? Simple.
Human nature.
Human beings have a strong preference for lower variance, lower risk plays, even when the higher variance, higher risk play is actually superior.
As such, the average fan and the media talking heads would crucify a coach who "gambled" so much as foolish and reckless, even though he's giving his team the best chance to win.
This post was edited on 11/14/13 at 10:48 pm
20
Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:50 pm to IAmReality
Too much to spend time reading .... but I say bring back the drop kick.
Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:54 pm to IAmReality
I remember reading some workup awhile back saying going for it on 4th down is mathematically the best call if you do it every single time
Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:58 pm to IAmReality
Football is Xs and Os.
Not variables and percentages.
Not variables and percentages.
Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:58 pm to IAmReality
Tl; dr
Posted on 11/14/13 at 10:59 pm to IAmReality
quote:
The Coach who never punts
Hugh Freeze against Bama this year?
ETA: Oh, wait, that's field goals.
This post was edited on 11/14/13 at 11:00 pm
Posted on 11/14/13 at 11:21 pm to IAmReality
quote:This is Oregon's approach to the game. For the most part it's been fairly successful.
As such, the average fan and the media talking heads would crucify a coach who "gambled" so much as foolish and reckless, even though he's giving his team the best chance to win.
Posted on 11/14/13 at 11:23 pm to IAmReality
Currently my cousins HS coach at PA 
Posted on 11/14/13 at 11:31 pm to IAmReality
The difference is he is coaching high school. The vast majority of high school teams do not have a good punter and thus the risk ratio is lower when going for it when you would otherwise punt.
For instance, in high school if you are punting from inside your own ten the other team is almost guaranteed to get the ball inside your 45 yard line and will frequently already in FG range when they take over. In college and especially the NFL, such a scenario frequently finds the other team on their OWN 35-40 yard line. That is a HUGE difference. Also, with regards to the onside kick, in most states high school teams kickoff from the 40 and most kickers cant kick it through the endzone. Thus, it benefits them far more to try an onside than it would a college or pro team.
This strategy works in high school, it would not work at higher levels. Now, I agree that most coaches should go for it more often than they do (it is almost always better to go for it on 4th and 7 or less on your opponent's side of the field) but going for it every time is stupid at higher levels.
I do hate it when coaches choose to punt on 4th and 5 from the other team's 45, though.
For instance, in high school if you are punting from inside your own ten the other team is almost guaranteed to get the ball inside your 45 yard line and will frequently already in FG range when they take over. In college and especially the NFL, such a scenario frequently finds the other team on their OWN 35-40 yard line. That is a HUGE difference. Also, with regards to the onside kick, in most states high school teams kickoff from the 40 and most kickers cant kick it through the endzone. Thus, it benefits them far more to try an onside than it would a college or pro team.
This strategy works in high school, it would not work at higher levels. Now, I agree that most coaches should go for it more often than they do (it is almost always better to go for it on 4th and 7 or less on your opponent's side of the field) but going for it every time is stupid at higher levels.
I do hate it when coaches choose to punt on 4th and 5 from the other team's 45, though.
Posted on 11/14/13 at 11:55 pm to IAmReality
Auburn would be interested in this HS mickey mouse shite.
Posted on 11/15/13 at 2:13 am to IAmReality
I don't know about a blanket strategy but I'm heavily inclined to agree that coaches are too conservative wrt punts, onside kicks and 2pt conversions.
I think they're also too conservative wrt run/pass ratio -- teams should be passing more.
I think they're also too conservative wrt run/pass ratio -- teams should be passing more.
Posted on 11/15/13 at 2:13 am to IAmReality
I don't have anything to say other than it's nice to read a thread that isn't the same old people saying the same stupid shite. 
Posted on 11/15/13 at 3:05 am to IAmReality
Gregg Easterbrook has been writing about this coach for several years in his Tuesday Morning Quarterback column. I agree with several subsequent posts: it makes more sense in high school with crappy punters than it does in college or the NFL. But I still like that he's playing the odds rather than worrying so much about failing.
It would have worked especially well on my high school team, where our punter actually had a backwards punt.
It would have worked especially well on my high school team, where our punter actually had a backwards punt.
Posted on 11/15/13 at 6:17 am to IAmReality
It makes sense.
Like when arkytards went off on Beliema for going for an onside kick early against AU, like that somehow gave the game away. Bert risked about 20 yards of field position for a chance to get the ball right back, and that's a good gamble especially when your defense is giving up 10 YPC anyway.
Like when arkytards went off on Beliema for going for an onside kick early against AU, like that somehow gave the game away. Bert risked about 20 yards of field position for a chance to get the ball right back, and that's a good gamble especially when your defense is giving up 10 YPC anyway.
This post was edited on 11/15/13 at 6:18 am
Posted on 11/15/13 at 6:50 am to IAmReality
Most coaches are so afraid of looking silly to the fans and coaching community that they vastly undervalue POSSESSION of the football. They say possession is 9/10ths of the law. Well, possession is 99/100ths of scoring in football. There is way too much punting within the opponents' side of the 50 - something that should almost never be done.
Posted on 11/15/13 at 6:56 am to IAmReality
Avoyelles high near marksvill has been using this strategy for several years along with the spin offense, a triple running back attack where they go in all directions and the defense can't tell who has the ball. It's quite effective offensively but they have no defense so when playing another team with a capable o, you see scores like 72-68 due to giving the other team a short field when you don't convert or get the onside kick.
Posted on 11/15/13 at 7:16 am to IAmReality
Posted on 11/15/13 at 8:58 am to IAmReality
quote:
high school coach out of Arkansas.
There you go Pigs...your next hire!
Posted on 11/15/13 at 8:59 am to IAmReality
If you average more than 2.5 yards a play...
Posted on 11/15/13 at 10:23 am to IAmReality
quote:
All punting does is reduce the chance the opponent scores on you, but almost never by enough to offset the the points you effectively lost.
What? This statement is dumb. Your defense is more likely to get a stop when the offense has the drive the length of the field. Refusing to punt when youre in your own territory is the dumbest decision ever.
This post was edited on 11/15/13 at 10:23 am
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