re: 2014 Arkansas Recruiting Thread - Football & Basketball Commits

Not that anyone will care but...

I decided to do some napkin math. If you took every player signed to D1 and randomzied their star rating using the same distribution as this year (used 247 to check numbers) and then compared it to the distribution of players actually drafted you get the following:

5* = players rated by a recruiting service as 5* are 15% more likely than random distribution to be drafted
4* = 21% more likely
3* and 2* = 3% less likely

I combined 3* and 2* because modern rankings include many more 3* than they used to. (a few years ago there were ~750 3* players, this year there were over 1600)

Call me a sunshine pumper or even friends of the entire administration but I'm willing to believe that our staff can do better than +15% over random.

ETA: draft numbers were taken from 2007 to 2011 draft as those were the ones I found already compiled