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Here's what it would take for OSU to jump Bama.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:16 am
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:16 am
Currently...
Harris Poll (made up of 115 votes)
Bama - 2756 pts. or on average 111 2nd place votes & 4 3rd place votes.
OSU - 2414 pts. or on average 114 5th place votes & 1 6th place vote.
Coaches Poll (made up of 59 votes)
Bama - 1411 pts. or on average 54 second place votes & 5 3rd place votes.
OSU - 1245 pts. or on average 53 5th place votes and 6 4th place votes.
Computers (made up of 6 computers...highest and lowest discarded)
Bama - 95 pts. or 3 2nd place and 1 3rd place.
OSU - 93 pts. or 3 3rd place and 1 2nd place.
Here's what would have to happen. Of course OSU would have to beat OU.
Harris Poll - There are already 4 voters who are putting Bama at #3. Bama would stay at #3 with those voters and OSU would have to take the #2 spot in those voters eyes. That may already be happening. We don't know who those voters have at #2 right now. Then, at least 28 voters of the remaining 111 would have to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. The remaining 83 voters could still put OSU at #3 and Bama at #2.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 2728 pts (or .94887) and OSU would have 2677 pts. (or .93113)
Coaches Poll - There are already 5 voters who are putting Bama at #3. Bama would stay at #3 with those voters and OSU would have to take the #2 spot in those voters eyes. That may already be happening. Then, at least 9 voters of the remaining 54 would have to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. The remaining 45 voters could still put OSU at #3 and Bama at #2.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 1402 pts. (or .95051) and OSU would have 1371 pts. (.92949)
Computer Polls - 5 of the 6 computer polls need to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. This will probably happen IF OSU beats OU.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 92 pts. (or .92) and OSU would have 96 pts. (.96)
Bama - (.94887 + .95051 + .92)/3 = .93979
OSU - (.93113 + .92949 + .96)/3 = .94021
In summary, OSU needs about 25% of the Harris voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot. And about 17% of the Coaches voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot.
This is the best case scenerio for OSU. This is assuming they jump Va Tech and Stanford with their victory. Of course if Va Tech loses to Clemson, that helps OSU's cause, but they still have to be clearly ahead of Stanford. There will still be some voters who put Stanford ahead of them. We just don't know how many.
Although slim, it appears there is still a chance for OSU.
There's no way Va Tech moves to #2. They're too far behind in the computers (average ranking #10)
I hope this doesn't happen. LSU / Bama are the two best and should play.
Harris Poll (made up of 115 votes)
Bama - 2756 pts. or on average 111 2nd place votes & 4 3rd place votes.
OSU - 2414 pts. or on average 114 5th place votes & 1 6th place vote.
Coaches Poll (made up of 59 votes)
Bama - 1411 pts. or on average 54 second place votes & 5 3rd place votes.
OSU - 1245 pts. or on average 53 5th place votes and 6 4th place votes.
Computers (made up of 6 computers...highest and lowest discarded)
Bama - 95 pts. or 3 2nd place and 1 3rd place.
OSU - 93 pts. or 3 3rd place and 1 2nd place.
Here's what would have to happen. Of course OSU would have to beat OU.
Harris Poll - There are already 4 voters who are putting Bama at #3. Bama would stay at #3 with those voters and OSU would have to take the #2 spot in those voters eyes. That may already be happening. We don't know who those voters have at #2 right now. Then, at least 28 voters of the remaining 111 would have to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. The remaining 83 voters could still put OSU at #3 and Bama at #2.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 2728 pts (or .94887) and OSU would have 2677 pts. (or .93113)
Coaches Poll - There are already 5 voters who are putting Bama at #3. Bama would stay at #3 with those voters and OSU would have to take the #2 spot in those voters eyes. That may already be happening. Then, at least 9 voters of the remaining 54 would have to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. The remaining 45 voters could still put OSU at #3 and Bama at #2.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 1402 pts. (or .95051) and OSU would have 1371 pts. (.92949)
Computer Polls - 5 of the 6 computer polls need to move OSU to #2 and Bama to #3. This will probably happen IF OSU beats OU.
In this scenerio, Bama would have 92 pts. (or .92) and OSU would have 96 pts. (.96)
Bama - (.94887 + .95051 + .92)/3 = .93979
OSU - (.93113 + .92949 + .96)/3 = .94021
In summary, OSU needs about 25% of the Harris voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot. And about 17% of the Coaches voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot.
This is the best case scenerio for OSU. This is assuming they jump Va Tech and Stanford with their victory. Of course if Va Tech loses to Clemson, that helps OSU's cause, but they still have to be clearly ahead of Stanford. There will still be some voters who put Stanford ahead of them. We just don't know how many.
Although slim, it appears there is still a chance for OSU.
There's no way Va Tech moves to #2. They're too far behind in the computers (average ranking #10)
I hope this doesn't happen. LSU / Bama are the two best and should play.
10
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:18 am to LoyalTiger
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Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:19 am to LoyalTiger
Thanks for posting. I hope we meet again in NOLA 
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:19 am to LoyalTiger
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:20 am to LoyalTiger
Sorry, but we only know one thing for sure right now and that's.......Bama is in the big game.
ESPN is going to make sure we are in it. The BCS system blows, but it's working in our favor this year.
I understand LSU fans being mad, because I would be, if we beat yall and the roles were reversed.
ESPN is going to make sure we are in it. The BCS system blows, but it's working in our favor this year.
I understand LSU fans being mad, because I would be, if we beat yall and the roles were reversed.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:20 am to LoyalTiger
Very good summary LT.
This is the part that I don't think will happen unless OK State beats OK by 40 points or more. A real chance, but a long shot at best.
quote:
In summary, OSU needs about 25% of the Harris voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot. And about 17% of the Coaches voters to move Bama to #3 and take their spot.
This is the part that I don't think will happen unless OK State beats OK by 40 points or more. A real chance, but a long shot at best.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:21 am to LoyalTiger
quote:
Here's what it would take for OSU to jump Bama
Poll voters to come to their senses and put OSU number 2 after they beat OK
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:31 am to LoyalTiger
Sorry, but that is way too much math for bama fans.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:39 am to LoyalTiger
Why is Stanford being ignored? Don't they have only one loss to a top ten team?
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:46 am to LoyalTiger
To avoid a rematch, I think okie state and va tech both need to win. Then the coaches will decide if they want a rematch or not and if they don't want a rematch they'll vote
#1 LSU
#2 Okie state (conf champ, best resume)
#3 Va Tech (conf champ, beat everyone on schedule)
#4 Houston (unbeaten)
#5 Bama
If a couple of dozen voters do this, okie state should be in.
Just my 2 pennys.
#1 LSU
#2 Okie state (conf champ, best resume)
#3 Va Tech (conf champ, beat everyone on schedule)
#4 Houston (unbeaten)
#5 Bama
If a couple of dozen voters do this, okie state should be in.
Just my 2 pennys.
Posted on 11/28/11 at 10:56 am to LoyalTiger
The only way Oklahoma State will be in the game is if they beat OU...convincingly. And I mean beat the ever living shite outta them. Something to the tune of 45-17. I don't see that happening. Hell, I don't even know if they can beat the Sooners. It's going to be LSU-Alabama.
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