re: "Experts" Prediction Compilation for Bama-LSU

Phil Steele

#1 LSU AT #2 ALABAMA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LSU 90
85
18
1.6
-
ALABAMA
150
190
26
1.8
-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First #1 vs #2 matchup in the reg ssn S/’06 and the first matchup of the top 2 tms in Bryant-Denny Stadium history. This is Saban Bowl 5 and Bama and LSU have split the L/4 meetings since Saban took over at Bama. Both teams are off a bye and LY both tms were also off byes and LSU held AL to a ssn low 102 rush yds while LSU rushed for 225 yds and pulled out a 24-21 win. LSU has outgained the Tide in 4 of the last 5 and Miles is 4-2 vs AL (only LSU HC to ever beat AL 4x). The Tigers are led by QB Lee who is avg 156 ypg (63%) w/a 13-1 ratio (#12 NCAA pass eff) while Jefferson has played in the L/4 and is getting more reps each week. RB Ware leads with 512 (4.0) and after being susp vs Aub will be back here along with defensive star Mathieu. Bama’s young QB McCarron is becoming more than just a game-manager and is avg 208 ypg (67%) with a 10-3 ratio while RB Richardson 989 (6.6, #7 NCAA) and 17 TD’s could lock up a trip to NY for the Heisman with a big gm here. While LSU’s D gets alot of pub they are giving up 251 ypg (14.4 FD’s) while Bama’s D only allows 181 ypg (9.9 FD’s). Bama is also +280 ypg while LSU is +120 ypg. While it is well noted that LSU is 30-1 S/’01 in AG’s w/a start of 6:00 pm or later, Bama is 25-1 at home S/’07, has the better D, the better HC and the best player on the field in Richardson. Add it all up and Bama stakes their claim for the national title! Roll Tide!
PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 24 LSU 6

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There’s more of a swagger on defense

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there’s more of a physical style on offense

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the LSU running back combo of Spencer Ware and Michael Ford will hold serve against the Bama 1-2 punch of Richardson and Eddie Lacy

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[quote]In the end, it’ll come down to whichever team controls the turnover margin. LSU is No. 2 in the nation behind Oklahoma State at a +1.88 per game, while Alabama is +0.75. Both teams are stingy with the ball, both teams are efficient, and both teams are physical. LSU is just a little bit better at all three[/quote]


Turnovers will be the key and there really is no way to predict it.