Has the SEC been down for the last 2 years? (with stats)

I’ve seen a lot of posts on whether the SEC has been down this year. Some posts claim that the SEC is the weakest it has been this decade. I wasn’t really sure so I put some stats together on the teams’ performance of the last two years compared to their whole decade.



Teams that are statistically down by more than one game:

Tennessee has averaged 6 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 8.3 wins per year during the decade. The delta is -2.3

Auburn has averaged 6.5 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 8.7 wins per year during the decade. The delta is -2.2

LSU has averaged 8.5 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 9.9 wins per year during the decade. The delta is -1.4



Teams that are statistically within one game of their decade average:

Georgia has averaged 9 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 9.7 wins per year during the decade. The delta is -0.7

Arkansas has averaged 6.5 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 7 wins per year during the decade. The delta is -0.5

S. Carolina has averaged 7 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 6.8 wins per year during the decade. The delta is 0.2

Miss. State has averaged 4.5 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 4.2 wins per year during the decade. The delta is 0.3



Teams that are statistically up by more than one game:

Vanderbilt has averaged 4.5 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 3.4 wins per year during the decade. The delta is 1.1

Kentucky has averaged 7 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 5 wins per year during the decade. The delta is 2

Ole Miss has averaged 9 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 6.2 wins per year during the decade. The delta is 2.8

Florida has averaged 13 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 9.9 wins per year during the decade. The delta is 3.1

Alabama has averaged 12.5 wins over the last 2 years. They averaged 7.8 wins per year during the decade. The delta is 4.7



Looking at the decade as a whole, Tennessee and Auburn are over 2 games down from their decade average. LSU is down significantly but not nearly as bad as Tennessee and Auburn.

Georgia and Arkansas are down a little but are around their average. South Carolina and Mississippi State are up a little but are around their average.

Vandy was horrible this year but their bowl season last year had them over a game above their average for the last 2 years. Kentucky is 2 games better than their decade average. Ole Miss and Florida are around 3 games better than their decade average. The biggest jump has been Alabama who is 4.7 games above their decade aveage.

The SEC as a whole is averaging an additional 7.1 wins per season due to out of conference performances and bowl wins.

During the decade Tennessee and Auburn were good teams and they’ve been poor the last 2 years. LSU went from being dominant this decade to being less spectacular.

Florida has gone from being great to being almost unbeatable the last 2 years. Alabama has gone from fairly poor to almost unbeatable the last 2 years. Ole Miss has gone from fairly poor to being a good team.

Vandy had one year where they jumped but are back to horrible again. Kentucky has improved their performance quite a bit in the last 2 years.



So if you look at the decade versus the last 2 years the main difference is:

Tennessee and Auburn are way down and LSU has gone down quite a bit.

Bama, Florida, and Ole Miss are way up and Kentucky has improved quite a bit.


------Opinion below this line-----------


In my opinion it’s hard to argue the conference is down. Tennessee and Auburn have been replaced as good teams by Bama and Ole Miss. Florida has gone from good to great. LSU has dropped off a bit but Kentucky has improved to a bowl caliber team.

The top end of the conference has improved over the course of the decade. In the first 6 years of the decade only 1 team from the SEC played in the national championship game. An SEC team played in the national championship game the last 4 years of the decade. The SEC has been 11-6 in bowl games over the last 2 year as well. Bama will push that to 12-6 or 11-7. I'm really not seeing where the conference is down. I only see specific teams that are not doing as well.

Anyhow whenever people bitch and use the "because I think so" or "you're an idiot" argument it drives me nuts. My view on the stats might be different than yours but at least it's something to think about. Flame away.

**edit - bolded some items to make it easier to read.