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I don't know about that. Alabama still has a top 10 roster, but it lost 30 players to the portal (20 before Saban retired and 10 after). Additionally they probably lost 4 first round draft picks and a handful of additional draft picks, which is fairly normal but when combined with much of the experience depth behind those guys also portaling out makes this year quite different. Off the top of my head Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas should have more talented rosters. A couple others probably close. When you combined that with first year coaching staff, I think ESPN's presason ranking of 9 is pretty reasonable. I mean #9 is still pretty damn high and indicates 10 wins and a playoff spot.

We'll see how the talent rankings pan out, but since Bama signed most of their incoming class on early signing day, the talent level next year will likely not drop as much as you think.

Bama already came in with an edge. Last year they had 18 5-stars on their roster. The next closes was UGA at 13, then OSU at 10. Texas had 9.

Bama brought in 5 5-stars (as did UGA). OSU and TExas had 4. Honestly the only school close enough for even the type of attrition Bama had this off season to pass them in talent is likely UGA.

Next year the big talent teams are going to be Bama, UGA, OSU and Texas, just like every year.

You'll then have the "enough talent to challenge" teams in Clemson, LSU, USC and A&M. Then you have the guys who's talent level is climbing but maybe aren't there yet like Oregon and Oklahoma.

My main point though is that Deboer has a good track record of coming in and coaching up the prior coach's guys to a high level. At Bama the prior coach's guys are extremely talenteded.

My main concern with him isn't year 1 and 2... it's beyond that when he has his own recruits carrying the load. He hasn't proven himself as a recruiter yet and to be honest that's more important for success in CFB than anything.

I think Bama will be very good next year. Top 5 in the nation good just like they were this season. I think people thinking they drop down to a 5-10 ranked team are not understanding how full the cabinet is for Deboer at Alabama and how big the talent gap is from the top teams even down to those in the 6-9 range.

This post was edited on 2/13/24 at 7:59 pm