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re: Bill Connelly's 2024 Returning Production
Posted on 2/5/24 at 12:41 pm to The_Ultimate_Warrior
Posted on 2/5/24 at 12:41 pm to The_Ultimate_Warrior
Using prior year SP+ and returning production, which includes transfers, is not really a very good formula for initial rankings (which comes out next week I guess).
For instance, the article notes A&M finished #18 in SP+ last year and has high returning production. Except their returning production had nothing to do with that #18 because the production was done at other schools. A&M barely returns any production from that #18 team. They are importing a new team, so whatever happened last year at A&M is pretty irrelevant.
Not sure how you tweak that. Really isn't much you can do with so many moving pieces.
For instance, the article notes A&M finished #18 in SP+ last year and has high returning production. Except their returning production had nothing to do with that #18 because the production was done at other schools. A&M barely returns any production from that #18 team. They are importing a new team, so whatever happened last year at A&M is pretty irrelevant.
Not sure how you tweak that. Really isn't much you can do with so many moving pieces.
This post was edited on 2/5/24 at 12:42 pm
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Posted on 2/5/24 at 1:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
For instance, the article notes A&M finished #18 in SP+ last year and has high returning production. Except their returning production had nothing to do with that #18 because the production was done at other schools. A&M barely returns any production from that #18 team. They are importing a new team, so whatever happened last year at A&M is pretty irrelevant.
I agree it can be deceiving. I think returning starters is often a better measure. A&M does not return Max Johnson, but it does return Weigmann. Johnson had more production last season, but Weigmann is the guy they are much better off returning.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 3:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Yea. Quantifying this with the growing insanity that is the transfer portal feels like a fruitless effort at this rate.
I do applaud Connelly for continuing this attempt, giving more numbers to discuss during the offseason. Otherwise, all we would have is "gotta wait and see how this team with 75% of its entire roster turning comes together in September." Though, that may be the only sane response.
I do applaud Connelly for continuing this attempt, giving more numbers to discuss during the offseason. Otherwise, all we would have is "gotta wait and see how this team with 75% of its entire roster turning comes together in September." Though, that may be the only sane response.
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