Started By
Message
re: Bill Connelly's 2024 Returning Production
Posted on 2/5/24 at 12:34 pm to biclops
Posted on 2/5/24 at 12:34 pm to biclops
Well this is Bill's reasoning behind what the pct means and why he breaks it down the way he does:
quote:
Pct of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 24% of the overall number
Pct returning QB passing yards: 23%
Pct returning OL snaps: 47%
Pct returning RB rushing yards: 6%
Pct returning tackles: 70%
Pct returning passes defensed: 14%
Pct returning tackles for loss: 12%
Pct returning sacks: 4%
quote:
Broken out by position/player, you're looking at roughly 29% for the quarterback, 6% for the running back and each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends and 9% for each offensive lineman. With each year of data, offensive line snaps become a heavier piece of the equation, which I find interesting.
It's a bit trickier on defense, where units aren't as strictly defined and the percentage of returning production is derived both from position units and types of stats (tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, passes defensed).
Perhaps surprisingly, turnover in the back of the defense causes far more of a shift in a team's SP+ rating from year to year than turnover up front. By position, defensive backs make up about 46% of the defensive formula, while linebackers are at 40% and the defensive line is at 14%.
(Remember: This is not based on my personal opinion of positional importance -- it's all about what impacts the numbers the most. On average, teams can evidently overcome turnover upfront more easily than turnover in the back.)
1
Posted on 2/5/24 at 12:41 pm to The_Ultimate_Warrior
Using prior year SP+ and returning production, which includes transfers, is not really a very good formula for initial rankings (which comes out next week I guess).
For instance, the article notes A&M finished #18 in SP+ last year and has high returning production. Except their returning production had nothing to do with that #18 because the production was done at other schools. A&M barely returns any production from that #18 team. They are importing a new team, so whatever happened last year at A&M is pretty irrelevant.
Not sure how you tweak that. Really isn't much you can do with so many moving pieces.
For instance, the article notes A&M finished #18 in SP+ last year and has high returning production. Except their returning production had nothing to do with that #18 because the production was done at other schools. A&M barely returns any production from that #18 team. They are importing a new team, so whatever happened last year at A&M is pretty irrelevant.
Not sure how you tweak that. Really isn't much you can do with so many moving pieces.
This post was edited on 2/5/24 at 12:42 pm
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News