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re: If your team doesn't make the playoff next year, how disappointed are you gonna be?
Posted on 1/5/24 at 7:59 am to BigBro
Posted on 1/5/24 at 7:59 am to BigBro
quote:
Playoff Probability for SEC teams?
13-0 100%
12-1 100%
11-1 100%
11-2 80%
10-2 60%
10-3 40%
9-3 20%
I think yours are low, even this year with an undefeated ACC team missing the Top 4 2 losses is clearly in. 3 losses still has good chance most years
13-0 100%
12-1 100%
11-1 100%
11-2 99%
10-2 95%
10-3 65%
9-3 50%
Posted on 1/5/24 at 2:40 pm to Jake81
I agree, especially if the two or three losses are to the top teams.
Posted on 1/5/24 at 4:59 pm to Jake81
The chance of a three loss team making the playoffs is slim. There are eleven slots to fill since the top G5 team is in. If you look back at the last 5 years, there are very few 3 loss loss regular season teams that were in the top 11. There were a total of 7 in the five years from all conferences. And a regular season three loss SEC team will not make the SEC championship, so they would be stuck at 9-3.. This year LSU would not have made it at 9-3 despite all three of their losses being to top 10 teams. Throwing out 2020, here is who would have made it into a 12 team playoff the last five years with 3 losses (after conference championship games.)
2018: #9 Washington 10-3; #10 Florida 9-3; #11 LSU 9-3
2019: #11 Auburn 9-3
2021: #11 Utah 10-3
2022: #8 Utah 10-3; #9 Kansas State 10-3
2023: none
So in 5 years, or a total of 55 slots, only three 3 loss SEC teams would have made it. And none of them played for the SEC championship. All of the other 3 loss teams did play for their conference championship and got a big bump from beating higher ranked teams. If an SEC team has 3 losses, odds are they are out.
2018: #9 Washington 10-3; #10 Florida 9-3; #11 LSU 9-3
2019: #11 Auburn 9-3
2021: #11 Utah 10-3
2022: #8 Utah 10-3; #9 Kansas State 10-3
2023: none
So in 5 years, or a total of 55 slots, only three 3 loss SEC teams would have made it. And none of them played for the SEC championship. All of the other 3 loss teams did play for their conference championship and got a big bump from beating higher ranked teams. If an SEC team has 3 losses, odds are they are out.
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