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Posted on 8/14/23 at 8:32 pm to DawgCountry
quote:
No rational person thinks Auburn develops defensive players better than UGA. Sorry to burst your bubble
When you adjust for roster talent, UGA's player development looks pretty normal for an SEC team. I didn't devlop this metric, but a UGA poster suggested looking at consensus 3* players who get drafted (i.e. guys who need significant development). The empirical evidence suggests Boom is a great hire so that's a positive. More data would improve the analysis.
UGA (Kirby) - 3
Ole Miss (during HF era) - 3
USC (Boom) - 6
Ron Roberts (Louisiana/Baylor) - 8-10 depending on how you count since he moved schools
This post was edited on 8/14/23 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 8/14/23 at 8:34 pm to ALhunter
Would you mind if I asked what years this was taken from?
Posted on 8/14/23 at 8:39 pm to DawgsLife
Don’t bother. I only counted UGA’s staff in the years that Kirby has been head coach. He goes back farther with Freeze and doesn’t count 3 players for UGA’s staff because despite being a composite 3 star, ESPN ranked them as a 4 star. The board standard is 247 composite, not consensus sites.
Edit: if you count Kirby's time at Bama you can add the following players
Vinnie Sunseri
Josh Chapman
Kareem Jackson
Javier Arenas
Terrence Cody
Marquis Johnson
Brandon Deadrick
Rashad Johnson
Coach Fran Brown
Harrison Hand
Nate Hairston
Tayvon Young
Christian Braswell
Coach CUD
Kyron Johnson
Jordan Carrell
Going back to Champ's time at UF and AU
Josh Evans
Alex McCallister
Joey Ivie
Angelo Blackson
Edit: if you count Kirby's time at Bama you can add the following players
Vinnie Sunseri
Josh Chapman
Kareem Jackson
Javier Arenas
Terrence Cody
Marquis Johnson
Brandon Deadrick
Rashad Johnson
Coach Fran Brown
Harrison Hand
Nate Hairston
Tayvon Young
Christian Braswell
Coach CUD
Kyron Johnson
Jordan Carrell
Going back to Champ's time at UF and AU
Josh Evans
Alex McCallister
Joey Ivie
Angelo Blackson
This post was edited on 8/14/23 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 8/14/23 at 8:41 pm to DawgsLife
quote:Note this is defense only. For Kirby/Boom/Ron R it's since Kirby went to UGA. The Kirby/Boom players were pulled by a UGA poster, so I haven't fully vetted those. For HF it's guys he coached the 4ish years he was at OM for apples-to-apples in terms of facilities, support, etc.
Would you mind if I asked what years this was taken from?
quote:Correct - this uses HF's time at OM and not Liberty to make the analysis more apples-to-apples.
He goes back farther with Freeze
quote:Correct. For all of the coaches a player had to be a consensus 3 star to count. For example, Jordan Davis was a 4 star in both Rivals and ESPN so would not be a consensus 3 star.
doesn’t count 3 players for UGA’s staff because despite being a composite 3 star, ESPN ranked them as a 4 star
This post was edited on 8/14/23 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 8/14/23 at 9:55 pm to ALhunter
quote:
For example, Jordan Davis was a 4 star in both Rivals and ESPN so would not be a consensus 3 star.
Davis was a composite 3 star.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 6:32 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:Agreed. And it is the best metric.
The board standard is 247 composite, not consensus sites.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 6:40 am to ALhunter
quote:
Correct. For all of the coaches a player had to be a consensus 3 star to count. For example, Jordan Davis was a 4 star in both Rivals and ESPN so would not be a consensus 3 star.
I can see your points for your above post, but composite means more. It means that all of the services ratings are put together....would mean a more accurate ranking. Rivals and ESPN are NOT known to be the most accurate services.
Counting the composite I came up with defensive players for Georgia, but I still need to go back to see if all made it to the NFL. All became major contributors at Georgia, though and well known enough because of those contributions. I have to go out this morning, so I will take a look at it when I get home.
Not sure why y'all are only counting defensive players, though, because Georgia has an additional 7 players offensively. But, if that is the criteria y'all chose that is what I will stick with, too.
ETA
Edited to put the NOT to show Rivals and ESPN are NOT known for their accuracy.
This post was edited on 8/16/23 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 8/15/23 at 8:29 am to DBG
quote:
They currently have the #1 class on On3, but have 1 out of the top 10 recruits in the state of Georgia. And that 1 is Dylan Raiola who moved to Georgia after he committed to UGA.
And it’s a loaded year in the state and they desperately wanted guys like KJ Bolden, Sammy Brown, and Landen Thomas.
12 players ranked in the top 100 in the state and 3 more just outside…only 4 committed to UGA and that’s if you include Raiola who isn’t a native
Just thought it was interesting
It's not really new. UGA has gone for more of a national recruiting strategy with the state providing depth as opposed to focusing on trying to recruit the top players in the state as a priority.
While there are some pure misses (like Bolden at Safety), there are also some situations where they had a different top target than the one in GA (Raiola over Noland at QB, Reddell over Thomas at TE or Williams over Brown at LB.
Sometimes this hasn't quite worked for UGA. For example we went all in on Zach Evans when we probably could have gotten Tank Bigsby had we prioritized him. Same last year trying to land Arch Manning when we probably could have gotten Dylan Lonergan at QB.
But overall we've had better classes by focusing on the national level.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 8:44 am to ALhunter
quote:
UGA (Kirby) - 3
Ole Miss (during HF era) - 3
USC (Boom) - 6
Ron Roberts (Louisiana/Baylor) - 8-10 depending on how you count since he moved schools
The other thing to consider is how many 3-stars a team has.
While I'm not sure about your numbers, the fact is UGA only had 34 3-stars from 2016-2019 according to the 247 composite. Of those 34 players, 12 were drafted out of UGA and 3 more are still on UGA's roster this season.
3-stars from classes after 2019 that look like they might be drafted:
Ladd McConkey
Daijun Edwards
Cam Kinnie
Javon Bullard
Chaz Chambliss
AD Mitchell (though he'll be drafted from Texas)
UGA has a lot of drafted 3-stars despite not having that many on the actual roster each year.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 9:14 am to DawginSC
quote:
The other thing to consider is how many 3-stars a team has.
Damn, that’s a good point
Posted on 8/15/23 at 9:39 am to DawginSC
quote:
The other thing to consider is how many 3-stars a team has.
While I'm not sure about your numbers, the fact is UGA only had 34 3-stars from 2016-2019 according to the 247 composite. Of those 34 players, 12 were drafted out of UGA and 3 more are still on UGA's roster this season.
I see this used as a point about UGA developing guys, but that kind of assumes rankings are perfect, or at least close, right? Which I feel as a board we have even recently established that they definitely aren't.
It would make more sense that they were just underrated to begin with, not that UGA took an actual 3 star caliber player and made him into a 4 or 5 star.
I'm not gonna go through that whole list you posted, but I know where Ladd is from and nobody is scouting guys in Murray County
I'm picking on Ladd here because I have a lot of connections in that area, I actually like him a lot. Also being around a bunch of studs can mask some deficiencies. Was 2022 Ladd really that good, or is the defense focused on AD Mitchell, the run game, and Bowers? I'm not saying anything either way, but its a decent question.
I'm firmly in the camp that college programs don't really develop guys that often or that much. Just the difference from working with a high school weightlifting coach to any D1 weightlifting coach can be massive for some guys and would have happened anywhere. Most of the Bama guys that went on to immediately have an impact in the NFL either had an impact immediately at Bama, or they at least flashed when given chances because they were behind locked in starters.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 9:47 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:This is actually the best argument IMO and I was surprised PO Jr. didn't make it. I suspect it's why a guy like Ron R or Boom (at USC) have a bunch of 3*s go pro... they have more starting on their defense. My best guess is most of the discrepancy between draft picks across college teams would correlate very closely with the average talent pool on those teams.
"The other thing to consider is how many 3-stars a team has."
Damn, that’s a good point
The reality is this analysis would be pretty tricky to do in a way that wouldn't be easy to pick apart.
If the data were available you could:
(1) Get the 247 composite numbers for HS players going back say 6-10 years
(2) Get a list of draft picks and cross reference it
(3) Plot a graph to see the correlation between ranking and chances of going pro - relationship may be linear but my guess is it is somewhat exponential
(4) Look at the percentages going pro for a given school and see if that school gives a boost or hurt player's odds of going pro i.e. do their players go pro more or less often than expected
There's still a good chance you come up with something that is "interesting" but wouldn't hold up under academic scrutiny.
I'm assuming nobody has that data in any sort of usable format other than some analyst sitting at 247.
This post was edited on 8/15/23 at 9:50 am
Posted on 8/15/23 at 9:53 am to DBG
quote:
They currently have the #1 class
This is all I got out of your OP
Posted on 8/15/23 at 12:10 pm to TrussvilleTide
quote:
I see this used as a point about UGA developing guys, but that kind of assumes rankings are perfect, or at least close, right? Which I feel as a board we have even recently established that they definitely aren't.
I disagree. I mean, obviously they are not 100% accurate. Nothing is 100% accurate. But, if you see where recruiting classes finish up, they typically closely mirror the teams in the playoffs. I mean the last few years the top teams have been Alabama and Georgia and those are the teams that typically finish at or near the top of the playoffs.
quote:
It would make more sense that they were just underrated to begin with, not that UGA took an actual 3 star caliber player and made him into a 4 or 5 star.
It's a point, but wouldn't it also be logical that there are a lot of 4* and 5* trated talents that are not?
I mean, it's not enough to sign highly rated classes. You would have to develop the talent, too.
I doubt IMG or any of the other top High Schools would do well against a top 25 college team, so players are definitely being developed. I doubt an All-Star team of nothing but 5* would do well in a game against a playoff team.
Everybody is making a lot of good points, but I think instead of digging in my heels I will say that to compete you must do a good job of signing top rated talent and then developing it.
There is, and always will be exceptions to the rule. (TCU and Cincinnati) but those exceptions got exposed in the playoffs.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 12:25 pm to DawgsLife
quote:
wouldn't it also be logical that there are a lot of 4* and 5* trated talents that are not?
Sure, but the claim is UGA is better at developing 3 stars than other people, not that they also develop all their 4 and 5 stars. You're also taking fewer 3 stars though so the sample size is smaller.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 12:46 pm to TrussvilleTide
quote:
Sure, but the claim is UGA is better at developing 3 stars than other people, not that they also develop all their 4 and 5 stars. You're also taking fewer 3 stars though so the sample size is smaller.
True. My point was that if we are taking 4* and 5* that should be 3* then we are obviously developing them, as well.
I just don't think of it as an either/or situation. It's a matter of scouting and getting some undervalued players and then developing all of your players.
Like I said, make an all-star team of nothing but 5* and they will probably get blown out by a playoff caliber team. Why? because those players get developed after they enter college.
I probably shouldn't have inserted myself into this conversation. It is way too subjective and opinion based. But we have had a couple of walk ons and at least one 2 * player that played for us in the playoffs and National Championship game. That's pretty darn amazing in my book.
But, then you get into the chicken or the egg argument. Was it because they were under ranked, or they were developed? The truth is...probably a bit of both. The one I would probably dig my heels in on is Stetson Bennett. The progress he showed over the years was astounding. Look at his stats from year to year and you will see a night and day difference from early years until his junior and senior years.
This post was edited on 8/15/23 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 8/15/23 at 12:57 pm to DBG
quote:Interestingly, Florida is currently at #3 with more than 2/3 of the class from out of state... a bunch of them from GA.
They currently have the #1 class on On3, but have 1 out of the top 10 recruits in the state of Georgia.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 2:06 pm to Tolbert1906
quote:
a bunch of them from GA.
Posted on 8/16/23 at 2:52 am to BeeFense5
quote:
Meanwhile god forbid lsu lose one Louisiana guy and the idiots on here want to fire the staff and cry like bitches
It’s more about the trends. LSU is DBU, as it stands, hasn’t gotten the number 1 DB in the state, the last three cycles. Furthermore, recruiting in Georgia is vastly different than recruiting in Louisiana. For every one of LA’s top 10, there’s 3 in GA. Just a simple population differential.
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