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re: How to Destroy the ACC

Posted on 8/3/23 at 2:19 pm to
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
4398 posts
Posted on 8/3/23 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

They might be the difference between a 24 team BIG negotiating with a 16 team SEC for Playoff slots/arrangements, as opposed to a 20 team BIG versus a 20 team SEC. If you're a TV network, would you rather pair with a 24 team, coast to coast league or a 16 team league that's confined to one corner of the country?


It doesn't matter. For playoff setup, you have to have the vast majority of the blue bloods on board. Nobody will accept a playoff scenario that doesn't involve Alabama, Texas, LSU, UGA and OU. They won't accept one that doesn't involve Michigan, OSU, USC and PSU either.

Will they accept one without Clemson and FSU? Yep.

You're creating some Big 10 vs SEC scenario. The reality is the number of teams don't matter, just the ones that viewers require be involved matter. And there are no other available teams that impact that aside from Notre Dame.

quote:

The ACC won't exist in this scenario. Even with the cheap ACC contract, ESPN may come out ahead if it can move four teams over to the SEC, drop the ACC deadweight, drop costs associated with the ACCN, and also block the BIG out of VA and NC and the South altogether.


Without both the SEC and Big 10 wanting to add teams, the ACC won't be able to disband. There won't be enough landing spots for teams in the ACC to end their 30 million dollar a year TV contract.

The SEC has no financial reason to try to end the ACC. ESPN doesn't want it either, they have networks that want to add the games to televise them... even Wake vs BC. They are still going to pay those remaining teams something to get those games. And the SEC will only add teams if they end up with the same or more per team.

That means you're looking at needing at least 60 million added to the SEC team contract per team added. If you're talking about adding four teams, that's 240 million dollars that needs to be added to the existing SEC contract just to break even. The entire ACC contract for ESPN is 300 million a year and they get games for 14 teams in football and 15 for other sports. The only way it makes sense for all parties is for ESPN to be able to increase the SEC contract by 250 million or so for the SEC to want to do it and renegotiate to get the fill in games from the ACC remnants for 50 million or less.

For comparison right now, the last AAC deal was for 83 million a year.

The numbers just don't work. ESPN has a great deal (for them) with the ACC. They won't do anything to end it early.

Posted by Landmass
Member since Jun 2013
18189 posts
Posted on 8/3/23 at 2:44 pm to
The ACC was absolutely stupid to sign a 20 year deal with ESPN back in 2016.

I do find it interesting that the same deal locks Notre Dame into the ACC for football if they ever decide to ditch independence. In other words, all the people saying that ND will end up in the B1G are wrong, at least until 2035.
Posted by bah7tea
Member since May 2015
97 posts
Posted on 8/3/23 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

You're creating some Big 10 vs SEC scenario.


That's the only scenario that matters when this is done. Spots on the selection committee? Auto-bids? Game sites? All of these details go differently if the BIG steps up to the table with 50% more teams and far better TV contracts and partners.

quote:

Without both the SEC and Big 10 wanting to add teams, the ACC won't be able to disband.


Colluding with the Big 12 is an option. There are many teams in the ACC that won't get into the BIG or the SEC, but would like a pay bump and a safe landing spot in the Big 12.

quote:

That means you're looking at needing at least 60 million added to the SEC team contract per team added. If you're talking about adding four teams, that's 240 million dollars that needs to be added to the existing SEC contract just to break even. The entire ACC contract for ESPN is 300 million a year and they get games for 14 teams in football and 15 for other sports. The only way it makes sense for all parties is for ESPN to be able to increase the SEC contract by 250 million or so for the SEC to want to do it and renegotiate to get the fill in games from the ACC remnants for 50 million or less.


Is this actually an apples to apples comparison? Latest SEC payout per team I could find for all media rights is $55m. A $300m deal with the ACC is $20m per team, but that's not payout.

Maybe the ACC contract is a sweet deal that ESPN would rather not give up, all else being equal. But FSU is already screaming bloody murder, and if ACC teams are willing to risk a legal fight over the ACC GOR, then things may have moved beyond "all else being equal."
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