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The way Alabama loses games and how that translates to 2017
Posted on 8/22/17 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 8/22/17 at 1:20 pm
This is just my opinion, but it seems to me there are 3 factors in every Alabama loss (a sliding scale depending on the game)
(1) Battle of the trenches, specifically opposing O-line
(2) QB play
(3) Turnovers
The only way to beat Alabama is to come out on top by a substantial margin in a combination of those categories. It could be a standstill in O-line vs D-line player plus a great QB (Manziel, Newton), it could be a massive win in TO battle (Ole Miss) or it could be a combination of them (Clemson). However, if you lose 2 of the 3 or all 3, you will not under any circumstances beat us (and the game will probably be a beat down).
So, using that criteria, who can may hay against Alabama in 2017 in those areas? Turnovers are a bit of a wild card, so it's difficult to predict that, but what about QB + OL? Honestly, I only see one team on the schedule that truly fits that criteria - Auburn.
Now, there are other teams who could add in turnovers, but most either have a capable QB and a bad to ok O-line (FSU, State, Ole Miss, Arkansas) or a solid O-line but nothing scary at QB (LSU).
Thoughts?
(1) Battle of the trenches, specifically opposing O-line
(2) QB play
(3) Turnovers
The only way to beat Alabama is to come out on top by a substantial margin in a combination of those categories. It could be a standstill in O-line vs D-line player plus a great QB (Manziel, Newton), it could be a massive win in TO battle (Ole Miss) or it could be a combination of them (Clemson). However, if you lose 2 of the 3 or all 3, you will not under any circumstances beat us (and the game will probably be a beat down).
So, using that criteria, who can may hay against Alabama in 2017 in those areas? Turnovers are a bit of a wild card, so it's difficult to predict that, but what about QB + OL? Honestly, I only see one team on the schedule that truly fits that criteria - Auburn.
Now, there are other teams who could add in turnovers, but most either have a capable QB and a bad to ok O-line (FSU, State, Ole Miss, Arkansas) or a solid O-line but nothing scary at QB (LSU).
Thoughts?
7
Posted on 8/22/17 at 1:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Deondre Francois was no slouch last year. You have to believe he makes vast improvement from year 1 to year 2 under Jimbo. There is your QB.
OL - Not sure here. Cook set a school record running behind those guys. Our D line is talented.
Turnover - Like you said, who knows.
OL - Not sure here. Cook set a school record running behind those guys. Our D line is talented.
Turnover - Like you said, who knows.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 1:40 pm to PCRammer
quote:
Deondre Francois was no slouch last year. You have to believe he makes vast improvement from year 1 to year 2 under Jimbo. There is your QB. OL - Not sure here. Cook set a school record running behind those guys. Our D line is talented. Turnover - Like you said, who knows.
Yea, I think FSU has a slight additional edge here because they will have a really, really good DL. So, while we might neutralize them offensively (I expect we will for the most part) there is a chance they neutralize us offensively.
However, their offensive line was really frickin bad last year. I just struggle to see anybody running against us out of a pro-style offensive look (and Cook was incredible). Francois got MURDERED last season, too. It's unbelievable he made it through the season.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 1:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Their OL would have to vastly improve for them to be able to handle our DL and OLB Corps. With that said DF can be shifty and makes some good passes. Key element here is they are missing Cook, he was the guy who got them out of a ton of crap. Wouldn't be surprised if they take a step back offensively.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 2:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
QB that can push the ball down the field
Great WR's. Guys that can win 1 on 1 and attack the ball in the air.
3rd down offense. If you can convert on third down you can beat Bama.
Defense line that can create negative plays.
Turnovers and winning the field position battle.
It's frickin hard to beat Alabama.
Great WR's. Guys that can win 1 on 1 and attack the ball in the air.
3rd down offense. If you can convert on third down you can beat Bama.
Defense line that can create negative plays.
Turnovers and winning the field position battle.
It's frickin hard to beat Alabama.
This post was edited on 8/22/17 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 8/22/17 at 4:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Yea, I think FSU has a slight additional edge here because they will have a really, really good DL.
It's an athletic DL but not a heavy DL. They're good at getting upfield, which got them roasted by mobile quarterbacks last season. Clemson has two All American defensive tackes and Scarbrough broke one off in that defense.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 4:17 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
I'll say this, if we limit turnovers and Bo gets going, it will be a long arse day for FSU. Let me rephrase that if Bo and the other 5 stars get going of your choosing.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 4:23 pm to PCRammer
Yeah, Cook is gone, but Akers may be very capable of replacing him, and though I didn't watch them enough last year to know their depth chart, I do know they've recruited well the last few years, so I doubt they'll be hurting at running back.
All else aside, I think this game simply hinges on whether our own quarterback can pose enough of a consistent threat downfield to keep their defense from keying on our running game. If we can do that, I think we'll beat them. I am much more apprehensive about FSU than Auburn.
All else aside, I think this game simply hinges on whether our own quarterback can pose enough of a consistent threat downfield to keep their defense from keying on our running game. If we can do that, I think we'll beat them. I am much more apprehensive about FSU than Auburn.
This post was edited on 8/22/17 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 8/22/17 at 4:28 pm to Huddie Leadbetter
They could still have Cook and they still wouldn't be able to run on this defense.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 4:35 pm to remaster916
quote:
They could still have Cook and they still wouldn't be able to run on this defense.
I hope you're right, but conversely, if their QB has a consistent passing game, that will obviously spread the defense enough so that they may be able to take advantage of it.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 4:59 pm to Huddie Leadbetter
What was the last pro style offense to actually run the ball on the Tide.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 5:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I would put opposing D-line vs. our on o-line (lack of push and penalties) as more important. Also just bonehead penalties, dropped passes, turnovers - the same way anyone loses a game.
Posted on 8/22/17 at 5:04 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Kicking game.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 8:09 am to SummerOfGeorge
I think Auburn has the best shot with that criteria.
But, I disagree that opposing OL play is such a high factor.
I see it in order:
1) uptempo scheme with a true dual threat QB that throws as well as he runs
2) BIG, fast, WRs with great ball skills
3) opposing front 7 with LBs that play sideline to sideline
But, I disagree that opposing OL play is such a high factor.
I see it in order:
1) uptempo scheme with a true dual threat QB that throws as well as he runs
2) BIG, fast, WRs with great ball skills
3) opposing front 7 with LBs that play sideline to sideline
This post was edited on 8/24/17 at 8:10 am
Posted on 8/24/17 at 10:44 am to SummerOfGeorge
Biggest threat will be Auburn and then Ohio State in the playoffs.
Posted on 8/24/17 at 11:47 am to Che Boludo
quote:
But, I disagree that opposing OL play is such a high factor.
It isn't if you run a scheme that helps negate that. However, we really don't play a lot of those teams. Auburn's scheme relies heavily on the OL being good. FSU's does as well. Ole Miss is probably the biggest exception.
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