Started By
Message
The Vegas Line for Saturdays Game has me going hmmmmm......
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:08 am
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:08 am
quote:
395 LSU 54 51 / 51u16 / 50.5 51 +213 396 ALABAMA -7 -7 -05 / -7 +10 / -6 -6.5 -245
Opened at Bama -7.Now at 6 1/2.
Over/Under is 51.
Money will move it some.Doesn't seem like Vegas is giving LSU much respect.
8
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:30 am to tidalmouse
I think it's more our defense is getting respect than LSU not getting respect. LSU's bread and butter is running the ball. That also happens to be what we do best, stopping the run.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:46 am to tidalmouse
quote:
Money will move it some.
Actually money moves it 100%. That is the very purpose and nature of it.
quote:
Doesn't seem like Vegas is giving LSU much respect.
You mean the betters? Surely you dont mean the people setting and moving the lines.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:53 am to BlackPawnMartyr
quote:
Actually money moves it 100%. That is the very purpose and nature of it.
Unless there's RLM, which happens a good bit.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:56 am to tidalmouse
Vegas knows how the public will bet, not who will win a game. I wouldn't put my money on the average betting person knowing much.
That said, if Harris doesn't pull a Johnny Manziel, and make ridiculous plays, Bama wins.
That said, if Harris doesn't pull a Johnny Manziel, and make ridiculous plays, Bama wins.
This post was edited on 11/3/15 at 10:58 am
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:56 am to tidalmouse
quote:
Vegas is giving LSU much respect.
What other teams have come into Tuscaloosa as a 6-7 point underdog since 2008?
Off the top of my head: LSU 2009, AU 2010, LSU 2011, Ole Miss 2015. There might be more but its probably a bigger sign of respect than we realize.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 11:07 am to BlackPawnMartyr
quote:
Surely you dont mean the people setting and moving the lines.
People who set the lines use a system to rank teams and evaluate the games. The lines are set based on A) where they think the games will be and B) where they can get action on both sides.
It is a myth that Vegas needs equal action on both sides to make money. If Vegas linemakers thought LSU was 7 points better than Bama then LSU would open as a 7 point favorite with action throughout the week moving the line.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 11:16 am to bamasgot13
Yep, the line is begging for the public to bet on lsu. There's only one reason that Vegas would beg the public to bet one way. See #3 underdog vs unranked USC. Looks like easy money doesn't it?
Vegas likes Bama. I like Bama. We are built to stop what they do. As they usually do, they will have some success offensively, they're too atheltic not to.
What's being overlooked, as much as kiffin can piss me off, he still knows how to draw up a game plan to exploit a secondary. Lsu has had coverage breakdowns weekly, I don't know if it's youth or lack of communication, but they get confused in coverage. I predict kiffin will pick them apart. He can draw up route combos to confuse a veteran secondary, this one is in for a long night. We'll hit several chunk plays in the passing game. That's only going to get Henry room to operate. They just lose guys in coverage, we'll have 4-5 play designs that are almost guaranteed to work.
Vegas likes Bama. I like Bama. We are built to stop what they do. As they usually do, they will have some success offensively, they're too atheltic not to.
What's being overlooked, as much as kiffin can piss me off, he still knows how to draw up a game plan to exploit a secondary. Lsu has had coverage breakdowns weekly, I don't know if it's youth or lack of communication, but they get confused in coverage. I predict kiffin will pick them apart. He can draw up route combos to confuse a veteran secondary, this one is in for a long night. We'll hit several chunk plays in the passing game. That's only going to get Henry room to operate. They just lose guys in coverage, we'll have 4-5 play designs that are almost guaranteed to work.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 11:58 am to tidalmouse
I love this line. They're begging the public to take LSU(currently 73% of the tickets are on LSU). Reminds me a lot of the USC Utah line last week. Vegas doesn't seem scared at all to take the risk with Alabama.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:00 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
quote:Do you think Vegas showed Utah any respect when the opened them at +3?
You mean the betters? Surely you dont mean the people setting and moving the lines.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:01 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Vegas doesn't seem scared at all to take the risk with Alabama.
This. 76% public money should have moved the line more. Vegas wants more money on LSU.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:30 pm to Alabamya
It even jumped to 7.5 yesterday. It definitely seems like they're backing Alabama right now. Maybe some of the sharp money is already on Alabama or maybe they expect it to be.
Either way, I think it's anybody's game. I'll definitely be on the LSU ML for a little victory tax.
Either way, I think it's anybody's game. I'll definitely be on the LSU ML for a little victory tax.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:33 pm to tidalmouse
quote:
Money will move it some.Doesn't seem like Vegas is giving LSU much respect.
This is all about match-ups. If LSU ran a zone read with the same personnel, then we'd be underdogs.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 1:40 pm to CrimsonCoast
quote:
If LSU ran a zone read with the same personnel, then we'd be underdogs.
They actually have been running some zone read.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 2:52 pm to Alabamya
quote:You'll see it plenty enough come Saturday.
If LSU ran a zone read with the same personnel, then we'd be underdogs.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 3:22 pm to tidalmouse
Any time the public is going for one team over 75%, then bet the other way. Vegas is begging you take LSU.
I saw where the public is taking FSU at 96% with the spread at 12.5 against Clemson. Take Clemson.
I saw where the public is taking FSU at 96% with the spread at 12.5 against Clemson. Take Clemson.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 4:32 pm to tidalmouse
I kind of thought that LSU fans might think the Line would have been set lower than 7.
I think it's about right.
eta: Just read the Thread.Over 70% of the money on LSU.Wow.
I think it's about right.
eta: Just read the Thread.Over 70% of the money on LSU.Wow.
This post was edited on 11/3/15 at 4:39 pm
Posted on 11/3/15 at 4:51 pm to tidalmouse
Yeah the line is high to get people to bet on LSU. It should be about 3 or 3.5 but to many people would bet on UA since we are at home. If the betting picks up I suspect that line will move down as the game grows closer to around 4.5.
Page 1 of 1
Latest Alabama News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News