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CFB Nerds Bama Vs UM
Posted on 12/26/23 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 12/26/23 at 3:16 pm
TLDR
Daniel : 27-24 Bama
Josh: 24-17 Bama
Main points, Bama is inconsistent, if they aren’t it’s not close. Michigan will be more consistent by the numbers.
LINK
Daniel : 27-24 Bama
Josh: 24-17 Bama
Main points, Bama is inconsistent, if they aren’t it’s not close. Michigan will be more consistent by the numbers.
LINK
This post was edited on 12/26/23 at 3:17 pm
4
Posted on 12/26/23 at 3:46 pm to CrimsonBoz
One point they made that had noticed is how big of a mismatch our corners are on their wideouts. I say glue KoolAid and Terrion to Wilson and Cornelius and see how McCarthy responds
Posted on 12/26/23 at 4:20 pm to CrimsonBoz
I said it the other day and I’ll say it again: Michigan has only played two teams with winning records in FBS. Ohio State and Penn State. The first two months of their schedule was cupcakes.
Posted on 12/26/23 at 5:13 pm to CrimsonBoz
It's a fair assessment. If Bama has a good game plan and executes it at a high level with few mistakes and we remain injury free then none of these other 3 teams will stand a chance. If we get a few easy tds called back from penalties, miss some field goals and give up some plays, all of which we have done the last 4 or 5 games then it will be close and uncomfortable to watch for 4 quarters.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 5:18 am to Glorious
Don’t think the corners get tested that much because they won’t throw that much. When they throw it may be mostly to TEs.
They’ll run run and run, shortens the game and tires our defense.
They’ll try to run the QB too. This might be their only chance unless we decide to turn the ball over and give them short fields.
They’ll run run and run, shortens the game and tires our defense.
They’ll try to run the QB too. This might be their only chance unless we decide to turn the ball over and give them short fields.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 6:36 am to bamatide07
quote:
I said it the other day and I’ll say it again: Michigan has only played two teams with winning records in FBS. Ohio State and Penn State.
And Iowa.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 6:47 am to artompkins
Very true for every game, every year.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 8:25 am to My2Bits
quote:
They’ll run run and run, shortens the game and tires our defense.
Yep... that's their plan.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 9:27 am to My2Bits
quote:
They’ll run run and run, shortens the game
This is my primary concern going in. IF they’re able to run the ball efficiently, even if they aren’t scoring a ton, and take 5-6 minutes off the clock every time they have the ball it’ll really shorten the game and magnify mistakes. When our offense inevitably has a 2-3 drive stretch where we struggle to get a first down like we have in most games, that could last for more than a quarter of Michigan is running the ball well.
I don’t think they’re going to be able to run the ball super well though.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 9:48 am to My2Bits
quote:
They’ll run run and run, shortens the game and tires our defense.
Which is great as long as you can run effectively (>4YPC), avoid penalties and TFL.
However if they go full B10 cloud of dust and find they cant do those things against a healthy, versatile and utterly elite secondary what do they have to fall back on?
Can they go JJ QB run? PA to the TE?
Can UM win this game playing tight efficient offense and shortening the clock against an inconsistent at times Alabama offense and leaning on their very solid if not NFL elite defense? Absolutely.
Do I think Alabama has many more paths to a victory, given an explosive and versatile offense and a defense with more NFL guys? Absolutely.
Do I want to make any predictions related to this particular Alabama team? Absolutely not.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 9:59 am to tide06
Michigans gameplay is typically and simply to let the other team make mistakes they can capitalize on. They will play disciplined offense and try to run the ball, not make mistakes while they let you give them a gift. Every game they’ve played is like this. OSU gave them them game, gift wrapped.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 10:04 am to My2Bits
quote:
They’ll run run and run, shortens the game and tires our defense.
They’ll try to run the QB too. This might be their only chance
Which would mean Bama could play a single high safety and bring the strong safety down into the box to help around the LOS.
That would be suicide for Michigan IMO. However it may not matter. Their passing game sucks, and our corners are elite so we may be able to play single high anyway. This is a bad matchup for UM.
Texas or Washington either one would have me more concerned. Assuming our OC has convinced Milroe during the time off that he has to run the ball, and can't dance around for five seconds far behind the LOS and all that stuff we've been witnessing all season with the 15yd loss sacks and whatnot.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 10:10 am to tide06
It is sorta trite but the game comes down to QB play.
McCarthy is not a drop back and throw into windows quarterback. That alone makes me really doubt how well their offense can function unless their OL plays much better than they have all season and keeps them in play action downs.
Milroe is an all-or-nothing quarterback. When he's on, he's unstoppable. When he's not, he is making true freshman type mistakes. Also, Alabama's offense relies entirely on him to be productive as a unit. The tailback run game is adequate and I doubt it will be featured heavily in the Rose Bowl due to the quality of the Michigan run defense.
If McCarthy plays well and Milroe doesn't, Michigan wins by double digits.
If both play well, Alabama wins by 3-7 points.
If Milroe plays well and McCarthy doesn't, Alabama wins by double digits.
If both play poorly, it is a toss up with a slight lean towards Michigan.
The question is what is more likely? I feel like it is likely McCarthy struggles because I do not think they will run the ball well enough to let him just move well and hit open receivers on play action. Your guess is good as mine what Milroe we will see. It is almost a game to game or even quarter to quarter affair on that front...
McCarthy is not a drop back and throw into windows quarterback. That alone makes me really doubt how well their offense can function unless their OL plays much better than they have all season and keeps them in play action downs.
Milroe is an all-or-nothing quarterback. When he's on, he's unstoppable. When he's not, he is making true freshman type mistakes. Also, Alabama's offense relies entirely on him to be productive as a unit. The tailback run game is adequate and I doubt it will be featured heavily in the Rose Bowl due to the quality of the Michigan run defense.
If McCarthy plays well and Milroe doesn't, Michigan wins by double digits.
If both play well, Alabama wins by 3-7 points.
If Milroe plays well and McCarthy doesn't, Alabama wins by double digits.
If both play poorly, it is a toss up with a slight lean towards Michigan.
The question is what is more likely? I feel like it is likely McCarthy struggles because I do not think they will run the ball well enough to let him just move well and hit open receivers on play action. Your guess is good as mine what Milroe we will see. It is almost a game to game or even quarter to quarter affair on that front...
Posted on 12/27/23 at 11:18 am to Diego Ricardo
Does anyone see us matching up better next time if we make it that far? I am not sure the outcome would be any different and maybe worse. If we cannot get to Ewers then I think it will be the same scenario.
This post was edited on 12/27/23 at 11:33 am
Posted on 12/27/23 at 11:51 am to Sebastian
quote:
Does anyone see us matching up better next time if we make it that far? I am not sure the outcome would be any different and maybe worse. If we cannot get to Ewers then I think it will be the same scenario.
The o-line was a confused mess early in the year. I definitely think we match up better now.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 12:25 pm to Sebastian
The removal of Dalcourt, and the emergence of Roberts mixed with the maturation of Proctor has completely transformed the OL.
Bond has turned into a real threat, Milroe dances for 5 seconds instead of 10 and MIGHT run if a lane opens. Milroe is throwing the ball to the other team far less often now.
Downs is fielding punts instead of Koolaid letting it bounce 20 yards downfield.
Jam Miller with more carries would have me feeling better, but I'm guessing the older Jase is healthy so no matter how good Jam or Haynes is they will be spectating
Alabama is a MUCH better team now, and Ewers isn't likely to throw many more passes straight up in the air that drop in a bucket 50 yards downfield like game one.
All things considered, and as frustrating as it is, this team will win a title easily with Good Milroe that is decisive and will run the ball, and will probably lose with dance party for 6 seconds behind the LOS Milroe that takes 15yd loss sacks and kills drives.
Kinda funny, it's considered the ultimate team game, but win or lose is on the QB from here on more so for Bama than the other teams. Bama ceiling is the highest, but our floor may be the lowest as well. Weird season.
Bond has turned into a real threat, Milroe dances for 5 seconds instead of 10 and MIGHT run if a lane opens. Milroe is throwing the ball to the other team far less often now.
Downs is fielding punts instead of Koolaid letting it bounce 20 yards downfield.
Jam Miller with more carries would have me feeling better, but I'm guessing the older Jase is healthy so no matter how good Jam or Haynes is they will be spectating
Alabama is a MUCH better team now, and Ewers isn't likely to throw many more passes straight up in the air that drop in a bucket 50 yards downfield like game one.
All things considered, and as frustrating as it is, this team will win a title easily with Good Milroe that is decisive and will run the ball, and will probably lose with dance party for 6 seconds behind the LOS Milroe that takes 15yd loss sacks and kills drives.
Kinda funny, it's considered the ultimate team game, but win or lose is on the QB from here on more so for Bama than the other teams. Bama ceiling is the highest, but our floor may be the lowest as well. Weird season.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 12:29 pm to Teague
I agree. I also remember Milroe's picks were on some quick read and throws that don't look to be apart of the offense currently.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 1:17 pm to Carlton
That’s right. The one read stare down your guy stuff are over. Let’s run qb power.
Posted on 12/27/23 at 5:13 pm to PowHound
quote:
The removal of Dalcourt, and the emergence of Roberts mixed with the maturation of Proctor has completely transformed the OL.
I think the evolution from Milroe dropping back beyond the protection and as a result opening himself up to the edge rush and his run threat between the tackles has had an immeasurable impact on the offense.
It’s eliminated huge negative plays, provided positive yardage and changed the way defenses can align and attack.
I’d argue it’s even improved the RB rushing attack because the threat of RPO and the need to spy has helped freeze the defense.
Add in Roberts at RG as you mentioned and you have a championship level offense.
This post was edited on 12/27/23 at 5:14 pm
Posted on 12/27/23 at 5:19 pm to elposter
quote:
quote:
I said it the other day and I’ll say it again: Michigan has only played two teams with winning records in FBS. Ohio State and Penn State.
And Iowa.
And UNLV who won 10 games for the first time in their history I believe. Also Maryland.
Again, while I agree UM had a joke of a schedule overall, they beat 5 teams with winning records.
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