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#1 Alabama vs #4 Cincinnati (Cotton Bowl - CFP) Matchups
Posted on 12/10/21 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 12/10/21 at 12:31 pm
Pulled from Sharp College Football
quote:
Overall O: The Offensive Beta_Rank score for a team. It is the sum of the teams scores on 4 measures of offensive performance, Drive Efficiency, Play Efficiency, Explosiveness, Avoiding Negative Drives.
Overall D: The Defensive Beta_Rank score for a team. It is the sum of the teams scores on 4 measures of offensive performance, Drive Efficiency, Play Efficiency, Explosiveness, Causing Negative Drives. Naturally for Defense the values are reversed.
Spcl_Tm_Score: The sum of offensive and defensive special teams regarding punts, punt retruns, punts inside the 20, kickoffs, and kick returns. Field Goals are included here, where I uses an expected points dependent variable subtracted from an actual points dependent variable.
Drive_Efficiency: The team offensive and defensive residual in the model. This captures the point value left unexplained by the other components of the model (yards per play, explosive drives, negative drives, starting field position, special teams, home/away). In other words who still scores more points even when controlling for the other offensive factors.
Play_Efficiency: This is the effect of yards per play on all points on NCAA drives multiplied by the team specific yards per play controlling for opponent, starting field position, and home/away.
Explosive Drives: This is the effect of a binary where yards per play >7.5 on all points on NCAA drives multiplied by the team offense and defense specific yards per play controlling for opponent, starting field position, and home/away. It corrects for multiple linear solutions to the yards per play to points relationship.
Negative Drives: This is the effect of a binary where yards per play < 3.3333 and turnovers on all points on NCAA drives multiplied by the team offense and defense specific yards per play controlling for opponent, starting field position, and home/away. It corrects for multiple linear solutions to the yards per play to points relationship.
This post was edited on 12/10/21 at 12:32 pm
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Posted on 12/10/21 at 12:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
This post was edited on 12/10/21 at 12:36 pm
Posted on 12/10/21 at 12:42 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'm not seeing a score prediction. 
Posted on 12/10/21 at 1:13 pm to TideSaint
George we are simple people. We need the score lol.
Posted on 12/10/21 at 1:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I’ve been wondering with Metchie out, and the biggest strength (I think, with little research to this point) of Cincinnati’s defense being 2 elite CBs, how will our running game fare vs them? It’s concerning that is where their big match-up advantage is. We’ll need Billingsley and Latu to really show up probably.
It’s gonna be a really interesting match-up between Jameson and Ahmad Gardner, but I do wonder who Bryant will match up with: Bolden? Brooks? That’s gonna be rough possibly.
I do feel like our Defense matches up very well with their Offense though, especially with your other thread showing their offense heavily relies on staying ahead of the chains. We should be able to disrupt that quite substantially, and really cripple their production.
It’s gonna be a really interesting match-up between Jameson and Ahmad Gardner, but I do wonder who Bryant will match up with: Bolden? Brooks? That’s gonna be rough possibly.
I do feel like our Defense matches up very well with their Offense though, especially with your other thread showing their offense heavily relies on staying ahead of the chains. We should be able to disrupt that quite substantially, and really cripple their production.
Posted on 12/10/21 at 2:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The biggest thing that jumps out to me is Cincinatti has the number 1 average field position start.
Is that a reflection of the quality of opponent they have played?
Is that a reflection of the quality of opponent they have played?
Posted on 12/10/21 at 2:15 pm to Golgi Apparatus
quote:
The biggest thing that jumps out to me is Cincinatti has the number 1 average field position start.
Nvm I didn't know what I was looking at.
This post was edited on 12/10/21 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 12/10/21 at 2:21 pm to BTide
All Greek to me
Posted on 12/10/21 at 2:32 pm to SummerOfGeorge
This post was edited on 12/10/21 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 12/10/21 at 2:53 pm to SummerOfGeorge
On paper it looked like Cincinnati had a very disruptive defense, but these numbers dont really spell it out completely
Posted on 12/10/21 at 2:57 pm to BTide
It's a tough match up for our offense. Can our offensive line duplicate what they did against Georgia or revert back to Auburn and LSU levels ? Having B Rob and Sanders healthy will be a big deal. Obvious concern is who will step up in Metchies place ? Will it be solely Brooks or a combination of Brooks, Holden and Earle ? How will Leary be involved ? The tight ends could be big in this game if the middle of the field is open.
Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Does this account for strength of schedule? If this is just raw numbers without any kind of adjustments for strength of schedule, I like our chances. I was starting to get a little worried after watching georgia struggle against them last season but as long as we show up focused, we win I think
Posted on 12/10/21 at 4:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 12/10/21 at 5:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 12/10/21 at 5:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
= Bama 45, Cincy 21
This post was edited on 12/10/21 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 12/10/21 at 5:47 pm to TidalSurge1
Posted on 12/10/21 at 7:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
None of this shite makes sense
Posted on 12/10/21 at 8:08 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Doesn’t Bama 38 Cincinnati 23 make more sense?
Posted on 12/10/21 at 8:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
A lot of math just to say Bama stacked, Bearcats fricked.
Posted on 12/10/21 at 8:18 pm to SummerOfGeorge
SummerofGeorge trying to enlighten the Bama board:
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