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Odds of winning the west, in %?

Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:29 pm
Posted by IAmReality
Member since Oct 2012
12229 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:29 pm
My opinion:

Mississippi State: 60%
Ole Miss: 25%
Auburn: 10%
Alabama 5%

Everybody else, better luck next year.
Posted by joeytiger
Muh Mom's House
Member since Jul 2012
6037 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:30 pm to
According to the rantards, LSU still has a legitimate shot at it.
Posted by msu202020
Member since Feb 2011
4142 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:30 pm to
Mississippi State: 35%
Ole Miss: 45%
Auburn: 15%
Alabama 5%

Ole Miss is going to be mighty tough to beat in Oxford. Hope I am wrong.
This post was edited on 10/14/14 at 5:31 pm
Posted by OleDawgSouth
Oxford, MS
Member since Sep 2014
22 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:31 pm to
OP must be a meteorologist.
Posted by S.E.C. Crazy
Alabama
Member since Feb 2013
7905 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:31 pm to
Bama 110 percent.

Miss. 0 percent

Miss. St. 0 percent

Auburn minus 10 percent.
Posted by SwaggerCopter
H TINE HOL IT DINE
Member since Dec 2012
27231 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:32 pm to
I think Auburn has a much better chance than you think. I'd put it at this:

Mississippi State: 45%
Auburn: 25%
Ole Miss: 20%
Alabama: 10%
Posted by Mo Jeaux
Member since Aug 2008
58762 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:33 pm to
quote:

Everybody else, better luck next year


Posted by GeauxPack81
Member since Dec 2009
10482 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:33 pm to
quote:

Mississippi State: 45%
Auburn: 25%
Ole Miss: 20%
Alabama: 10%


This is correct. Auburn will beat Ole Miss by double digits
Posted by Rabern57
Alabama
Member since Jan 2010
13363 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:36 pm to
40% State - Tie breaker over Auburn
30% OM
30% Auburn
Posted by Rebel Land Shark
Member since Jul 2013
30167 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:36 pm to
Mississippi State 50%

Ole Miss 50%
Posted by MSU5
Memphis
Member since Aug 2011
3411 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:36 pm to
I seriousky don't think any team in the SECw has above a 40% chance of winning out.
Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79221 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:38 pm to
I don't know about that. Auburn has to run a gauntlet of both unexpectedly good teams (Ole Miss) and teams that probably aren't as good as thought but could still win (almost everyone else).

Nonetheless, I do not think MSU is unbeatable, although it's clearly easier than AU's path. I'd say

MSU 40%
Ole Miss 30%
Alabama 15%
Auburn 15%
Posted by NorthGwinnettTiger
Member since Jun 2006
51827 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:39 pm to
MSU 35%
OM 35%
Bama 20%
AU 10%
This post was edited on 10/14/14 at 5:40 pm
Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
18073 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:39 pm to
According to ESPN FPI,

Ole Miss has a 24% chance and MSU has a 23.1% chance of winning the conference.

Auburn 5%
Alabama 4.4%
LSU 0.1%
Texas A&M 0.1%
Arkansas 0%

In the East, Georgia has a 34.6% of winning, Florida 7.5%, Kentucky 0.6%, South Carolina 0.2%,
Posted by MSU5
Memphis
Member since Aug 2011
3411 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:42 pm to
If MSU and OM make it to the egg bowl undefeated, and Georgia makes it out of the east and beats the winner of the egg bowl in the SECNCG, does the egg bowl loser make the playoff?
This post was edited on 10/14/14 at 5:42 pm
Posted by Tigers of War
Ewor
Member since Aug 2013
1340 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:42 pm to
AU has a ton of work to do if they are going to win out with this schedule. They had a bad showing in Starkville but when they play to their potential they look awesome.

Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79221 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:43 pm to
quote:

If MSU and OM make it to the egg bowl undefeated, and Georgia makes it out of the east and beats the winner of the egg bowl in the SECNCG, does the egg bowl loser make the playoff?



Probably. Definitely if UGA limps to the SEC title.
Posted by NorthGwinnettTiger
Member since Jun 2006
51827 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:43 pm to
quote:

If MSU and OM make it to the egg bowl undefeated, and Georgia makes it out of the east and beats the winner of the egg bowl in the SECNCG, does the egg bowl loser make the playoff?


As long as it's not a blowout, absolutely.
Posted by MSU5
Memphis
Member since Aug 2011
3411 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:45 pm to
What if OU and FSU win out?
This post was edited on 10/14/14 at 5:46 pm
Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79221 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:45 pm to
quote:

AU has a ton of work to do if they are going to win out with this schedule. They had a bad showing in Starkville but when they play to their potential they look awesome.



It's just a situation where we probably have the horses to compete (and if we played well, win) the playoff, but I just don't see us getting there with so many competitive teams on the schedule left.

We knew it'd be tough going in. I don't think MSU was a "bad" loss (although we certainly played our way out of contending in it), but it gives us no margin for error going forward. Unless we got all of our errors out of the way against MSU, it just seems like too much to ask I think.
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