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What do yall think about this upcoming robot takeover
Posted on 7/15/19 at 9:11 am
Posted on 7/15/19 at 9:11 am
Idk what board to post this but if its poli board id rather be last man in a human centipede than post there. So ill ask yall
How unprepared will we be and how destructive will it actually be to our lower/middle class and is this universal income thing inevitable?
Supposedly truck driving jobs will be extinct in the next 10-12 years. Amazon has a massive stake in that happening. Retail and fast food jobs will vanish. I heard the other day that 30% of malls and outlets will close their doors in the next couple years. Not even the med field is immune. My wife does MRI and supposedly hers and xray are one of the first to be obsolete given that newer tech is so much better than human error for detecting certain things. And im sure theres tons of others i dont know about
I know the democrat chinaman that was on rogan recently is pretty much campaigning solely on "the robots are coming"
Bonus question: how bad will it be for race relations here. Once al sharpton declares it a form of genocide
How unprepared will we be and how destructive will it actually be to our lower/middle class and is this universal income thing inevitable?
Supposedly truck driving jobs will be extinct in the next 10-12 years. Amazon has a massive stake in that happening. Retail and fast food jobs will vanish. I heard the other day that 30% of malls and outlets will close their doors in the next couple years. Not even the med field is immune. My wife does MRI and supposedly hers and xray are one of the first to be obsolete given that newer tech is so much better than human error for detecting certain things. And im sure theres tons of others i dont know about
I know the democrat chinaman that was on rogan recently is pretty much campaigning solely on "the robots are coming"
Bonus question: how bad will it be for race relations here. Once al sharpton declares it a form of genocide
8
Posted on 7/15/19 at 9:21 am to Sheftie
Is automation coming?
Yes
I don't trust the quick timelines. A 1% failure rate is too deadly/costly.
Truck driving will most likely be like drone driving. Or automated for 95% of the trip and then need manual controls for in-town and in-parking-lot.
If truck driving is drone/automated, that creates jobs. Gas stations won't be self service. Vendors still need stockers. More mobile mechanics for en-route repairs.
The fear of this is a little too strong. I don't see this hitting us within the next 10 years. Jobs will be created because of this that we haven't even imagined.
Yes
I don't trust the quick timelines. A 1% failure rate is too deadly/costly.
Truck driving will most likely be like drone driving. Or automated for 95% of the trip and then need manual controls for in-town and in-parking-lot.
If truck driving is drone/automated, that creates jobs. Gas stations won't be self service. Vendors still need stockers. More mobile mechanics for en-route repairs.
The fear of this is a little too strong. I don't see this hitting us within the next 10 years. Jobs will be created because of this that we haven't even imagined.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 9:44 am to Sheftie
Kill John Connor now....
Posted on 7/15/19 at 10:14 am to Sheftie
It will be disastrous for people (google behavioral sink), but it won't last. The system is beginning to break down, and the costs to maintaining this complexity will eventually become too much. The unintended social consequences of UBI will just be the beginning of the horrors industrial society will face in the next century.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 10:28 am to meansonny
quote:
don't trust the quick timelines. A 1% failure rate is too deadly/costly.
Many people seem to whole heartedly agree with that timeframe. That driverless/assisted tech will be implemented before then even
I would assume by the time they roll out fully automated trucking itll instantly be far less dangerous than human error
A decade feels like an eternity technology wise anymore. especially given the infinite resources behind this
quote:
Jobs will be created because of this that we haven't even imagined.
Yeah but theres no way it can come even close to the number of jobs eliminated
Warehouse/shipping jobs have got to be on the fast track to being outta here. Some of the warehouse robots already out here are completely nuts
Obviously all transit related jobs are on the chopping block. Taxis, uber, bussing, eventually airlines i guess
How are realtors even a thing anymore. Now that you can do virtual tours of everything and all the lending shite can be done online
Posted on 7/15/19 at 11:11 am to Sheftie
quote:
That driverless/assisted tech will be implemented before then even
The tech is here now and people are dying. The error today is about 3-5%. Within 10 years, that will be 1%. And that isn't good enough.
quote:
Yeah but theres no way it can come even close to the number of jobs eliminated
We have entire industries of jobs today that weren't imagined 10 years ago. You need to understand what "haven't even imagined" means.
I agree that AI will takeover. But it is probably 50-60 years before we are facing these questions.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 11:11 am to meansonny
quote:
The fear of this is a little too strong. I don't see this hitting us within the next 10 years. Jobs will be created because of this that we haven't even imagined.
I agree - I don't see mass automation occurring the way folks think of it within the next 20-30 years. Companies like Amazon are the outliers in today's industry and while other companies are striving to mimic their model, the amount of complexity, technical resources, and data that need to be thrown at it make it very difficult to accomplish. There are many institutions that are entrenched and have a lot to lose with automation - they will fight it any way they can (most likely with lobbying / laws) to slow it down as long as possible. If Amazon starts venturing into too many different lines of business and taking over industries, don't be surprised if the US uses anti-trust laws to prevent them from taking on too much.
I think the change occurs gradually and more new jobs are created than those that are lost. I do think our grade school model will need to change in the distant future to ensure students are being taught skills that translate into career opportunities.
I am more concerned about global population growth and global warming (combined). It is likely there will be large wars & instability within the next 50 years over limited resources. The good news is that things like automation can help on this front but only so far.
This post was edited on 7/15/19 at 11:20 am
Posted on 7/15/19 at 11:41 am to Fats
Amazon employs about 650,000 workers.
And the entire concept of Amazon has created entrepreneurs who can sell their goods on the global market.
I'm somewhat ignorant on amazon. But why are they seen as the future of automation? They create a shite load of jobs.
And the entire concept of Amazon has created entrepreneurs who can sell their goods on the global market.
I'm somewhat ignorant on amazon. But why are they seen as the future of automation? They create a shite load of jobs.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 12:26 pm to Sheftie
When I first started selling computers in 1972, the average system cost about $1M, and took up about 2,000 sqft of floor space.The selling points were that it would eliminate clerical jobs and reduce paperwork. But the data entry needs gave the paper-pushing clerks new jobs, and computer repair jobs saved all the typewriter repairmen from the unemployment line.
What I'm getting at is that innovation creates innovative jobs. Someone else here said this as well. We just need to convince younger people that tech schools can prepare them for the future as well as (or better than) colleges.
What I'm getting at is that innovation creates innovative jobs. Someone else here said this as well. We just need to convince younger people that tech schools can prepare them for the future as well as (or better than) colleges.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 1:18 pm to Sheftie
quote:
How unprepared will we be and how destructive will it actually be to our lower/middle class
How destructive will it be? Very. Governments don't like have a lot of "surplus labor". As a buddy put it: everyone has a future in biofuels.
quote:
and is this universal income thing inevitable?
The political elite like it, and they usually get what they want, so it will probably happen at some point.
quote:
Bonus question: how bad will it be for race relations here.
Not good, but then again, what ever is? There's too much money to be made in stoking the fires.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 2:07 pm to meansonny
quote:
I'm somewhat ignorant on amazon. But why are they seen as the future of automation? They create a shite load of jobs.
Their distribution centers are extremely innovative on the AI front. In at least some of the bigger centers, robots do the bulk of item sorting and retrieving. Humans still pack and ship, but I would imagine that’s temporary.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 3:00 pm to Sheftie
There's a Twilight Zone episode about this.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 3:01 pm to deeprig9
Posted on 7/15/19 at 3:43 pm to meansonny
quote:I'm like 99% sure that would be a huge improvement over human error.
A 1% failure rate is too deadly/costly.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 3:47 pm to SneakyWaff1es
Do you hit someone or something in 1 out of 100 trips in your car?
Automation doesn't process fast enough yet for objects moving into the way.
It also isn't prepared for parking lots or warehouses with tight angles and poor data to enter into the directions
Automation doesn't process fast enough yet for objects moving into the way.
It also isn't prepared for parking lots or warehouses with tight angles and poor data to enter into the directions
Posted on 7/15/19 at 3:48 pm to deeprig9
When that completely automated world happens and I've finished installing the last instrument in the last building, I'll lock the door and go to my private island without telling anyone where the on/off switch is located.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 4:12 pm to Crowknowsbest
quote:
Their distribution centers are extremely innovative on the AI front.
Im definitely not up to speed on everything amazon but i do know..
They made a $3/4 bil investment in tesla earlier this yr
Theyre supposedly about to do a full rollout with the prime air drone delivery this year
Theyre already testing driverless tractor trailers in select regions. Theyve been seen on the road
Posted on 7/15/19 at 4:25 pm to meansonny
quote:I don't but I'm pretty sure more than 1% of drivers have been in an accident of some sort. Just because I've never hit someone or something in my car doesn't mean my step mother hasn't totaled three cars.
Do you hit someone or something in 1 out of 100 trips in your car
I was also talking more about the medical side of his comment which I know I didn't make clear. Radiologists aren't perfect and they read things slower than an AI would with lower accuracy. Pattern recognition in AI is far superior to human.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 4:53 pm to SneakyWaff1es
quote:
was also talking more about the medical side of his comment which I know I didn't make clear. Radiologists aren't perfect and they read things slower than an AI would with lower accuracy. Pattern recognition in AI is far superior to human
I agree. I think I've heard that the technology is already superior. There may be downsides not promoted by the AI side (that's who is pushing the news on this), but I haven't heard of any. Nor have is there a guarantee that there are downsides.
Posted on 7/15/19 at 5:28 pm to SneakyWaff1es
quote:
Just because I've never hit someone or something in my car doesn't mean my step mother hasn't totaled three cars.
The sensory inputs aren't very good yet.
Someone literally walked in front of an automated car and it never slowed down and killed her.
Automation is only as good as the information presented. Imagine worn down roads without good lines. Rain or darkness.
We are talking about 4000 pound machines traveling 35+ mph.
Or imagine a parking lot making a new delivery. Where does the vehicle go? Where does it not go that might be dangerous (propane/fuel, pedestrian traffic, potholes, moving water).
Imagine poor gps/cellular signals.
We are far from a solution to these issues even with regards to the possible shortcuts (like drone truck drivers).
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