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re: Locks for the playoff and where the SEC stands...
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:17 am to castorinho
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:17 am to castorinho
quote:
OU is a lock with a win out
I wish this were true. But it simply isn’t.
If Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama go undefeated the rest of the year, and Aggie end up with one loss in the championship game, OU could be left out as the 5th seeded SEC team.
Georgia will be favored over Georgia Tech
Alabama will be favored over Auburn
Aggie will be favored over Texas
If that happens, and Bama beats Aggie for the SEC championship, Oklahoma might be in trouble.
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Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:17 am to castorinho
OK is not a lock if Bama wins the SEC. Would depend on how many teams get in from other conferences.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:24 am to EV
quote:
Georgia has to beat Georgia Tech,
Nope. UGA still gets in even with a (however unlikely) loss to GaTech
quote:
Ole Miss has to beat Miss St.
OM likely in even with egg bowl loss, but would lose the home hosting
quote:
Alabama has to beat Auburn, and hope 1 of Michigan or USC loses another game
If Bama beats Auburn, they’re in. Too many ranked wins to get passed by a 10-2 Mich or USC
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:24 am to EV
quote:
Georgia has to beat Georgia Tech
No, they don't.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:29 am to Gator Fever
Sec gets 4 with A & M, Ole Miss, Georgia and Bama. ...if Bama wins their last two.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:30 am to Gator Fever
You guys are overthinking things. The only scary sceranio for OU is not Bama winning the SEC. It's Tech NOT winning the big 12.
Big 10- 3
Acc- 1
G5- 1
Notre Dame.
That leaves six spots for big 12 and sec.
And the big 12 is only getting two if tech loses the championship game. That could leave OU out. But even then ND, should start shitting their pants when they start comparing wins.
Big 10- 3
Acc- 1
G5- 1
Notre Dame.
That leaves six spots for big 12 and sec.
And the big 12 is only getting two if tech loses the championship game. That could leave OU out. But even then ND, should start shitting their pants when they start comparing wins.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:32 am to TeeteringBrink
Alabama could still get left out if they beat Auburn and lose to A&M in the SECCG. Would be interesting to see what happens. My gut feeling is that they beat AU but lose to A&M.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:36 am to castorinho
The CFP Committee would have nightmares trying to prune one team out of UGA, Bama, OM, and OK. Each of those teams has a direct head to head win against another. (Assuming that they’re all 10-2 at end of regular season).
This post was edited on 11/16/25 at 9:38 am
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:37 am to castorinho
Yep the ND thing would get interesting but if USC beats Oregon they would make arguments I am sure.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:37 am to Gator Fever
quote:
That is talking about OK being left out possibly if Bama wins the SEC.
Sorry I misunderstood. I can barely see and also morning coffee not kicked in. Yeah I can’t envision OU left out after the schedule they’ve played going 10-2.
This post was edited on 11/16/25 at 9:38 am
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:42 am to Gator Fever
UGA scenario exposes a weakness in the current plan. UGA actually benefits from losing to Bama this year because it keeps them from playing in the SECCG. Yet they still get a bye if they stay in the top 4. Nice for us but logically is weird.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:43 am to Dirk Dawgler
quote:
Alabama could still get left out if they beat Auburn and lose to A&M in the SECCG.
Bama has wins against UGA, Vandy, Mizzou, Tenn., and LSU, all of which have winning records and have been ranked this year. Finishing 10-2 with a win in the IB, Bama is NOT getting left out. Period.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:46 am to HammerSlammer
Not sure you can say it benefits GA unless they got bad injuries in the SECCG. Not having a chance to win the SEC could possibly make you play harder teams and maybe make you catch OSU before the championship game.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:47 am to TeeteringBrink
quote:
Bama has wins against UGA, Vandy, Mizzou, Tenn., and LSU, all of which have winning records and have been ranked this year.
Winning records and have been ranked this year? What???
UGA is a really good.
Vandy, Mizzou, Tenn, LSU are all “mid” teams that don’t impress anyone on the committee.
Bama is going to the playoffs - I agree with you on that. But not on the strength of their schedule. Just on their helmet and tradition.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:48 am to Gator Fever
We will not beat Auburn.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:48 am to Gator Fever
Virtual Locks: Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss
Decent Shot: Alabama, Oklahoma
Long Shot: Vanderbilt
No Shot: the rest
If Alabama and Oklahoma win out and avoid the SECCG, they’re in.
I think Alabama is still in at 10-3 if they lose the SECCG. Technically the extra loss weakens their resume, but if the committee has them in at 10-2, then they shouldn’t be punished for playing an extra game their competition doesn’t play. And I think 10-2 Bama is ahead of Notre Dame and definitely ahead of 10-2 Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt must win out and needs an upset to happen somewhere, like Utah losing to a Kansas school or BYU losing to Cincinnati or Notre Dame taking a 3rd loss somewhere.
Right now I think the field will be:
1. Ohio State (13-0)
2. Texas A&M (13-0)
3. Indiana (12-1)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Texas Tech (12-1)
6. Ole Miss (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-1)
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
9. Alabama (10-3)
10. Notre Dame (10-2)
11. Georgia Tech (11-2)
12. Tulane (11-2)
Decent Shot: Alabama, Oklahoma
Long Shot: Vanderbilt
No Shot: the rest
If Alabama and Oklahoma win out and avoid the SECCG, they’re in.
I think Alabama is still in at 10-3 if they lose the SECCG. Technically the extra loss weakens their resume, but if the committee has them in at 10-2, then they shouldn’t be punished for playing an extra game their competition doesn’t play. And I think 10-2 Bama is ahead of Notre Dame and definitely ahead of 10-2 Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt must win out and needs an upset to happen somewhere, like Utah losing to a Kansas school or BYU losing to Cincinnati or Notre Dame taking a 3rd loss somewhere.
Right now I think the field will be:
1. Ohio State (13-0)
2. Texas A&M (13-0)
3. Indiana (12-1)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Texas Tech (12-1)
6. Ole Miss (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-1)
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
9. Alabama (10-3)
10. Notre Dame (10-2)
11. Georgia Tech (11-2)
12. Tulane (11-2)
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:51 am to Gator Fever
If challk holds (it won't) UGA will miss the championship game and get a 1st round bye probably #4 which means we would get 5v12 winner.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:52 am to SECdragonmaster
quote:
Vandy, Mizzou, Tenn, LSU are all “mid” teams that don’t impress anyone on the committee.
But mostly better than any of the “mid” teams beaten by Oregon and Notre Dame that seem to get them into the picture.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:53 am to Gator Fever
quote:
That is talking about OK being left out possibly if Bama wins the SEC.
OU goes over somebody in that case. OU would have the most ranked wins in the entire country.
Posted on 11/16/25 at 9:55 am to castorinho
Yeah, that road win against Alabama is basically an automatic bid for OU.
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