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Doomsday playoff scenario

Posted on 11/29/25 at 8:58 am
Posted by GAT BoilerPickle Doc
Member since Dec 2014
2414 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 8:58 am
BYU wins the Big 12 Championship edging Texas Tech

Michigan beats Ohio State today then beats Indiana in the Big 10 Championship

SMU and Virginia win today, giving the winner an automatic bid in the ACC CG

You could potentially have BYU, Michigan, the SMU/Virginia winner and the highest ranked G5 team all receiving automatic bids despite none currently being ranked in the top 10

Add in the SEC champ, either Georgia, Alabama or Ole Miss

So now you only have 7 spots available with only one current top 10 team guaranteed a spot

Who gets the at-large bids?

Ohio State 11-1 and Indiana 12-1 are locks as is Texas A&M 11-1 (despite not making the SEC championship game)

Now we have 4 spots left and here's where things get dicey

Oregon 11-1(assuming they beat Washington today), who didn't make the Big 10 CG?

The SEC CG loser (Georgia 11-2, Alabama 10-3 or Ole Miss 11-2)?

An 11-1 Ole Miss, who didn't make the SEC CG?

Texas Tech 11-2, who would be in as of today but a loss in a conference CG could knock them out?

Assuming the following teams win today ...

Notre Dame 10-2?

Oklahoma 10-2?

Vanderbilt 10-2?

Miami 10-2?

I understand the long odds of this hypothetical but it is a possibility

Even if none of this happens, there will be teams not in the playoff who would be capable of winning the national championship










Posted by Rzrbackguy
Apalachicola, FL
Member since Jul 2014
2523 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 8:59 am to
One good thing about being a hog fan….i don’t need to attempt reading that.
Posted by forkedintheroad
Member since Feb 2025
1427 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:00 am to
quote:

Even if none of this happens, there will be teams not in the playoff who would be capable of winning the national championship


Every year.

Win your games or watch from home.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Member since Nov 2009
125581 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:01 am to
Right there with ya razorbaw.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4876 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:04 am to
Seems like the whole playoff thing hasn’t even mattered then. Same situation as the CFP election
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
41810 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:05 am to
I want chaos
Posted by Pimphand
Member since Sep 2021
3792 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:08 am to
Michigan needs Oregon to lose to make the B1GCG so your entire scenario is invalid
Posted by CR4090
Member since Apr 2023
8057 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:09 am to
Are we sure Tech is a gimme if they don't win their CG? The B12 is only getting one team.
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
20364 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:13 am to
quote:

Win your games or watch from home.


I think the point is that teams that are winning their games are getting left out because of subjective placement of at large teams.
Posted by GAT BoilerPickle Doc
Member since Dec 2014
2414 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:20 am to
quote:

Michigan needs Oregon to lose to make the B1GCG so your entire scenario is invalid


I believe you are correct regarding Michigan's chances of reaching the Big 10 CG

A 10-2 Michigan with a win over the current #1 team in the country would certainly boost their odds of making the playoff

Posted by ukraine_rebel
North Mississippi
Member since Oct 2012
3649 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:25 am to
quote:

A 10-2 Michigan with a win over the current #1 team in the country would certainly boost their odds of making the playoff


ND would be the big loser here. Or if Bama loses to Auburn then that’s your replacement.
Posted by TygerLyfe
Member since May 2023
2750 posts
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:27 am to
quote:

ND would be the big loser here.


I'm good with that
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