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re: Which SEC team not named Alabama or Georgia has the best chance to win their division this
Posted on 5/16/19 at 9:00 am to koreandawg
Posted on 5/16/19 at 9:00 am to koreandawg
A&M and Auburn in the West
Florida in the East by default.
Florida in the East by default.
Posted on 5/16/19 at 10:17 am to koreandawg
To me there are two obvious answers to this question:
EAST:
Georgia is and should be the favorite, but history shows that typically if Florida wins in Jacksonville then they will represent the East. It's entirely possible that that could happen.
WEST:
We'll know by the end of September whether or not Alabama has won the West.... and no, not because of anything having to do with Alabama. If Auburn is somehow undefeated at the end of September (would have wins over Oregon, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State), it means the Tiger team is good enough to beat Bama inside the confines of Jordan-Hare. Historically... even under Nick Saban... Alabama teams can't beat a good Auburn team at Jordan-Hare. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but I'd say with the Iron Bowl played in Auburn, Auburn has a great shot if they prove they've fielded a decent team this year.
Yes, LSU may be good. But let's face it, to win the West you have to beat Bama, and LSU is not beating Bama in Tuscaloosa. Texas A&M's schedule is too difficult. They are a year or so away from having a shot at the West.
EAST:
Georgia is and should be the favorite, but history shows that typically if Florida wins in Jacksonville then they will represent the East. It's entirely possible that that could happen.
WEST:
We'll know by the end of September whether or not Alabama has won the West.... and no, not because of anything having to do with Alabama. If Auburn is somehow undefeated at the end of September (would have wins over Oregon, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State), it means the Tiger team is good enough to beat Bama inside the confines of Jordan-Hare. Historically... even under Nick Saban... Alabama teams can't beat a good Auburn team at Jordan-Hare. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but I'd say with the Iron Bowl played in Auburn, Auburn has a great shot if they prove they've fielded a decent team this year.
Yes, LSU may be good. But let's face it, to win the West you have to beat Bama, and LSU is not beating Bama in Tuscaloosa. Texas A&M's schedule is too difficult. They are a year or so away from having a shot at the West.
Posted on 5/16/19 at 10:31 am to BHMKyle
quote:The last time Auburn went unscathed in Sept was 2014... and then they proceeded to finish the season in typical "GUS" fashion with 5 losses. Gus has collected the most talented teams AU's ever had and he still finds a way to screw it all up by averaging 3-4 losses a year.
If Auburn is somehow undefeated at the end of September (would have wins over Oregon, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State), it means the Tiger team is good enough to beat Bama inside the confines of Jordan-Hare. Historically... even under Nick Saban... Alabama teams can't beat a good Auburn team at Jordan-Hare. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but I'd say with the Iron Bowl played in Auburn, Auburn has a great shot if they prove they've fielded a decent team this year.
Posted on 5/16/19 at 10:32 am to skrayper
LSU or AU in the West
UF or UK in the East
UF or UK in the East
Posted on 5/16/19 at 11:16 am to BHMKyle
I looked into this a bit further.... it's pretty unbelievable.
The winner of the Georgia-Florida game has represented the East in Atlanta in 6 of the last 8 SEC Championship Games.... and 8 of the past 11.
The winner of the Iron Bowl has represented the West in Atlanta in 9 of the previous 10 SEC Championship Games.... taking that one further, if Auburn has a good team, they typically win the Iron Bowl, especially when its in Jordan-Hare. Since 1980, Alabama is 1-10 against Auburn teams that finish in the Top 10 (9.1%).... they are 2-16 (11.1%) against Auburn teams that finish in the Top 15... and they are just 6-18 (25.0%) against Auburn teams that just finish in the Top 25.
On the other side of the coin, Alabama is 14-1 against Auburn teams that finish outside the Top 25 at the end of the year during that time frame.
When the game is played in Auburn, history shows Bama just does not beat decent Auburn teams. Granted the sample is relatively small, but Auburn is a perfect 8-0 all-time against Alabama inside Jordan-Hare when they are good enough to field a team that finishes in the AP Top 25. That's unreal.
The winner of the Georgia-Florida game has represented the East in Atlanta in 6 of the last 8 SEC Championship Games.... and 8 of the past 11.
The winner of the Iron Bowl has represented the West in Atlanta in 9 of the previous 10 SEC Championship Games.... taking that one further, if Auburn has a good team, they typically win the Iron Bowl, especially when its in Jordan-Hare. Since 1980, Alabama is 1-10 against Auburn teams that finish in the Top 10 (9.1%).... they are 2-16 (11.1%) against Auburn teams that finish in the Top 15... and they are just 6-18 (25.0%) against Auburn teams that just finish in the Top 25.
On the other side of the coin, Alabama is 14-1 against Auburn teams that finish outside the Top 25 at the end of the year during that time frame.
When the game is played in Auburn, history shows Bama just does not beat decent Auburn teams. Granted the sample is relatively small, but Auburn is a perfect 8-0 all-time against Alabama inside Jordan-Hare when they are good enough to field a team that finishes in the AP Top 25. That's unreal.
Posted on 5/16/19 at 11:20 am to RT1941
quote:
The last time Auburn went unscathed in Sept was 2014... and then they proceeded to finish the season in typical "GUS" fashion with 5 losses.
That's true, however the game was played in Bryant-Denny that year. That Auburn team still finished in the AP Top 25 (#22). They also put up 630 total yards in that game and took a lead into the 4th quarter..... had the game been played in Jordan-Hare, it probably would have been an Auburn win.
Which is the point. If Auburn fields a Top 25 calibur team, they always beat Bama when its at Jordan-Hare.
This post was edited on 5/16/19 at 11:36 am
Posted on 5/16/19 at 11:39 am to BHMKyle
quote:Auburn is 2-3 in JHS in the last decade against Bama and Gus sits at 2-4 vs Saban with both wins in JHS.
When the game is played in Auburn, history shows Bama just does not beat decent Auburn teams. Granted the sample is relatively small, but Auburn is a perfect 8-0 all-time against Alabama inside Jordan-Hare when they are good enough to field a team that finishes in the AP Top 25. That's unreal.
What's even more unreal is that with the amount of talent AU has pulled into the program in the last decade, they have shitty records vs UGA/LSU/UA (3-7 vs UA/3-8vs UGA/3-7 vs LSU). You go out of you way to prop up Auburn vs Bama and you're Dog fan, you even cherry pick 1980 as your frame of reference.
Posted on 5/16/19 at 12:26 pm to BHMKyle
Here's a question, how has Auburn done in odd years when they get UGA/UA in JHS with a freshman QB at the helm that Gus trained and developed on his own?
Posted on 5/16/19 at 12:27 pm to JCinBAMA
There isn't one in the West
LSU isn't beating Bama
A&M has the hardest schedule with 3 of the 4 deciding games on the road
AU is a wildcard
In the East
FL is the only one with a shot to displace UGA
LSU isn't beating Bama
A&M has the hardest schedule with 3 of the 4 deciding games on the road
AU is a wildcard
In the East
FL is the only one with a shot to displace UGA
Posted on 5/16/19 at 12:28 pm to RT1941
quote:
Auburn is 2-3 in JHS in the last decade
Yes. And the three teams that lost at home to Bama were 8-5, 8-5, and 7-6, respectively. That's the point. None of those teams were very good.
quote:
What's even more unreal is that with the amount of talent AU has pulled into the program in the last decade, they have shitty records vs UGA/LSU/UA (3-7 vs UA/3-8vs UGA/3-7 vs LSU).
I'm not defending Auburn. Their record against their 3 big rivals is indefensible.... however I'd argue their record against Alabama is actually decent relative to the rest of the league. But as a whole, their performance against AL-UGA-LSU the past 10 years has been abysmal.
quote:
You go out of you way to prop up Auburn vs Bama and you're Dog fan, you even cherry pick 1980 as your frame of reference.
I'm not propping up Auburn. This discussion is about "which teams other than Bama and Georgia are most likely to win their divisions in 2019"..... There is no "propping up" to do when the facts show that if Auburn fields a decent, Top 25 calibur team they always beat Bama inside Jordan-Hare. That's not "propping up", that's just stating a cold hard fact.
I think Auburn has proven they are far more likely to win the West during the Saban at Alabama era than LSU is, and unlike LSU who has to play Bama in Tuscaloosa, Auburn has the more likely path to Atlanta by virtue of playing Bama at home.
I'm sorry you don't like what the facts say but those are the facts.
We'll likely know by October whether Auburn has a decent team. If they are 5-0 and have beaten Oregon, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State, its probably safe to say they have a Top 25 calibur team next year. I have my doubts that will happen.... but regardless, there's strong chance we'll know.
If Auburn is 5-0, they should have a good team and history says they'll beat Bama and therefore represent the West. If they are 3-2, go ahead and bet the farm on Bama winning the West next year.
Posted on 5/16/19 at 12:32 pm to koreandawg
SEC West: LSU
SEC East: Florida
SEC East: Florida
Posted on 5/16/19 at 12:33 pm to RT1941
quote:
Here's a question, how has Auburn done in odd years when they get UGA/UA in JHS with a freshman QB at the helm that Gus trained and developed on his own?
If you are looking for someone to defend Auburn and tell you how great they are, you are barking up the wrong tree.
For the record I think Auburn is a 7-5 team next year who will likely be playing in the Music City Bowl or some place like that.
I think Bama wins the West next year and would mark their chances of doing so around 95%. But IF there is a team to upend the conventional wisdom its going to be Auburn. Why? Because they get Bama at home.... and again, you can hate facts and history all you like, but Bama has a tough time playing there. Period. Especially when Auburn is good and a trip to Atlanta is on the line.
LSU is not going to beat Bama this year. Not in Tuscaloosa. And the fact they play Texas and Florida outside the already tough SEC West means its nearly impossible for them to finish better than 6-2 in conference play.... the schedule will wear on them.
A&M is not ready. Everyone hyping them is a year too early. Even if they sneak up and beat Bama in College Station, they aren't going to finish better than 6-2 in league play..... not when they also have to play LSU, Georgia, Auburn, etc. (not to mention CLemson OOC).
Posted on 5/16/19 at 12:38 pm to BHMKyle
A&M has the hardest schedule in all of CFB next year, so yeah - we aren't winning squat
Posted on 5/16/19 at 1:40 pm to ColoradoAg
quote:
A&M has the hardest schedule in all of CFB next year, so yeah - we aren't winning squat
It's tough...
Auburn and A&M essentially play the same schedule, only while A&M plays at #1 Clemson.... Auburn plays at #8 Florida and against #11 Oregon.
I think Auburn's is slightly more difficult only because they play one additional Top 11 team compared to A&M.
South Carolina also plays a very difficult schedule: #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Georgia, #8 Florida, #10 Texas A&M plus Missouri and Kentucky who are just outside the Top 25.... not to mention North Carolina OOC.
Posted on 5/16/19 at 1:42 pm to koreandawg
pretty sure it's always AU in the West...
Probably UF in the East
Probably UF in the East
Posted on 5/16/19 at 1:45 pm to koreandawg
Auburn is going to start the year with zero preseason hype. Which means they're going 11–1 with a respectable loss to LSU.
Posted on 5/16/19 at 3:02 pm to MykTide
Doesn’t matter , same a old vomit flowing
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