Which CFB teams are on the verge of taking the next step to elite status?

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"I don't think Michigan's elite yet. Don't you have to have at least won a playoff game to be considered elite? They're in a really, really good category. The only thing that I think would hold them back from entering that elite category is just roster talent. They got a really good team coming back. I thought they were plenty good enough this year. I truly think they choked away a golden opportunity in that semifinal game."

"As good as they are at evaluation and development, how different would it be if their overall roster talent was another notch up? If they were recruiting top 10 classes instead of top 20 classes. They haven't finished top two in the Big Ten in the past two recruiting cycles. They should be better than that. I'm nitpicking, but Michigan is certainly a team that should be in this conversation."

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"They overachieved this year but to be elite, they need to stack a couple more classes on top of each other. They need offensive balance. They've got to be able to run the ball a lot better than they have the last several years. That's just upgrading offensive skill. They need more defensive depth. They're well on their way to doing it. They are recruiting the way that you should. They're probably a couple of years away when you're stacking those kinds of classes on top of each other."

"If we're asking who could be elite in the next couple of years, all the arrows are pointing in the right direction for them. There was some concern that Brian Kelly was going to have a secret struggle at recruiting -- not happening. They got the No. 1 portal class, and they're top 10 in recruiting. They're going to have the players."

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"The biggest obstacle standing in their way is they need way better defensive talent -- way better. They're in the process of doing that. They are, at the very least, 1-2 classes away from that. I don't ever have to worry about the caliber of quarterback they're going to have, and I don't have to worry about offensive skill talent."

"I still fully believe there is a Lincoln Riley national championship year somewhere out there. It just hasn't happened yet. If we're looking down the road and someone is joining tier one of college football, it would be foolish to overlook USC. This isn't me saying 2023 is the year it happens, although maybe it is or maybe it isn't."

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"Penn State returns all three starting linebackers this year. They have six offensive linemen returning with five-plus games of starting experience. They've got the best 1-2 running back combo in the Big Ten, though Michigan would argue that. Abdul Carter is going to warrant Defensive Player of the Year consideration, and it is Drew Allar season… That concludes the list of points Producer Jesse wanted me to make about Penn State and how bright the future is there. For the record, I'm kind of all in on Penn State."

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"Oregon is recruiting as well as anyone is on the West Coast right now. Line of scrimmage talent is what they need to continue to upgrade. They're already doing it. We've chronicled what they're bringing in on the defensive line via every acquisition method imaginable. The defense has to improve there. They weren't as good as I thought they'd been on that side of the ball."

"What you don't know is what they learned about themselves. You never know; there may be some moves or decisions or changes in philosophy that have a big impact. It's a lot more than did they get this player or that player."

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