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Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 2:39 pm
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re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by 3down10 on 9/15/22 at 2:42 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 2:42 pm to SummerOfGeorgeSign me up to watch another shut out.
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by IAmNERD 
on 9/15/22 at 2:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 2:43 pm to SummerOfGeorgeWill tune into the Tenn/Akron game just to see a final of 51-4.
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by Glorious on 9/15/22 at 2:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 2:45 pm to SummerOfGeorgeHow bad was Jimmy Lake as a HC?
Peterson 2015-2019:
Consistent Top 15 Team
Lake 2020-2021:
Absolute Dogshit
Deboer 2022:
Hot start. Top 25 potential
Peterson 2015-2019:
Consistent Top 15 Team
Lake 2020-2021:
Absolute Dogshit
Deboer 2022:
Hot start. Top 25 potential
This post was edited on 9/15 at 2:45 pm
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by Mulkey Man 
on 9/15/22 at 2:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 2:46 pm to SummerOfGeorgeAkron with 4?
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by SummerOfGeorge on 9/15/22 at 2:48 pm to Mulkey Man
on 9/15/22 at 2:48 pm to Mulkey ManMath formulas don't always conform to normal football scores.
In reality it would round down to 3.
In reality it would round down to 3.
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by 3down10 on 9/15/22 at 2:48 pm to Mulkey Man
on 9/15/22 at 2:48 pm to Mulkey Manquote:
Akron with 4?
Tennessee has to punt, and the long snapper puts the ball over the kickers head.
Then, on the next drive, Tennessee starts from their own 4, Hooker goes back to pass, but throws the ball away while getting sacked, and it's called for intentional grounding.
This post was edited on 9/15 at 2:49 pm
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by Mulkey Man on 9/15/22 at 2:49 pm to 3down10
on 9/15/22 at 2:49 pm to 3down10It could happen. I was thinking: controversial call puts Akron in field-goal range. It makes the kick, causing storm of mustard bottles. Officials huddle, rather than call the game a forfeit, they award one point to the Zips.
This post was edited on 9/15 at 2:50 pm
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by SummerOfGeorge on 9/15/22 at 2:49 pm to 3down10
on 9/15/22 at 2:49 pm to 3down10quote:
Tennessee has to punt twice, and the long snapper puts the ball over the kickers head.
Then, on the next drive, Tennessee starts from their own 4, Hooker goes back to pass, but throws the ball away while getting sacked, and it's called for intentional grounding.
I prefer this to math being bad at football
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by Tornado Alley 
on 9/15/22 at 2:52 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 2:52 pm to SummerOfGeorgeSOG, how has your model performed the first two weeks, both against the spread and overall?
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re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by ISEN_AG 
on 9/15/22 at 2:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 2:54 pm to SummerOfGeorgeAll 3 have A&M scoring in the 20s. Sadly I don't see us even getting there.
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by SummerOfGeorge on 9/15/22 at 2:55 pm to Tornado Alley
on 9/15/22 at 2:55 pm to Tornado Alleyquote:
SOG, how has your model performed the first two weeks, both against the spread and overall?
Didn't do it Week 0 or week 1, but Week 2 went pretty well. That week was 100% projection from a formula of prior year/returning players/transfer/recruiting. This week is 70% current year data and 30% projection.
Week 2
vs line : 5-3 (projection = spread in State/Zona so theoretically no pick)
vs total : 6-3
The stats only use FBS vs FBS games, so there are some teams with only 1 FBS game that are really skewed still. Oregon is a prime example. Even with a SoS adjustment their defense is like 4th from last, because the only data included for them is giving up a literal touchdown on every drive. That will obviously even out some with more results (or they'll do it again and we'll actually believe they are that bad).
This post was edited on 9/15 at 2:58 pm
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by Referee on 9/15/22 at 2:56 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Miami beating A&M by 4. Will the rest of the Maggies be back with full force or will the few left abandon the Rant after a loss to Miami?
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by meansonny 
on 9/15/22 at 3:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 3:11 pm to SummerOfGeorgeI'm curious to see if SCAR can get 22 points.
They got 20 in overtime in 2019. And 20 points back in 2015.
It isn't a common occurrence for them against our defenses.
They got 20 in overtime in 2019. And 20 points back in 2015.
It isn't a common occurrence for them against our defenses.
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by Serraneaux 
on 9/15/22 at 3:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 3:15 pm to SummerOfGeorgeVols by Fiddy
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by 3down10 on 9/15/22 at 3:52 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 3:52 pm to SummerOfGeorgequote:
I prefer this to math being bad at football
I corrected mine manually to prevent it(a function did it).
<= 1 = 0
<= 4 = 3
<= 6 = 6
8 = 7
11 = 10(I think, it's been years)
It's not "the math", and it kind of skewed the spread prediction a little. But I figured it's a hell of a lot better than what SP+ has with the 57-1 score Alabama score.
quote:
They got 20 in overtime in 2019
they scored 13 against our defense. And our offense couldn't stay on the field all day thanks to coley. The last time they scored 20 against our defense was as you mentioned in 2015, when tehy scored 20 exactly with steve spurrier at the helm.
re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ PicksPosted by PubeCrab on 9/15/22 at 3:57 pm to SummerOfGeorge
on 9/15/22 at 3:57 pm to SummerOfGeorgeOle Miss by 28? 16 point spread is a bit much on Ga Tech imo. Expect OM to win by 13 or 14.
quote:
they scored 13 against our defense. And our offense couldn't stay on the field all day thanks to coley. The last time they scored 20 against our defense was as you mentioned in 2015, when tehy scored 20 exactly with steve spurrier at the helm.
Agreed. But to be fair, they could score on Saturday with special teams or defensive touchdowns too.
The number in my head is 13.
I think only Tennessee and Bama topped that number last season.
This season's number could be different. I don't think it has been identified, yet.
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