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SummerOfGeorge
Alabama Fan
Brookhaven, GA
Member since Jul 2013
98576 posts
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Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks





3down10
Alabama Fan
Member since Sep 2014
21986 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
Sign me up to watch another shut out.



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IAmNERD
Auburn Fan
Member since May 2017
16483 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
Will tune into the Tenn/Akron game just to see a final of 51-4.


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Glorious
Alabama Fan
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
21523 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
How bad was Jimmy Lake as a HC?


Peterson 2015-2019:

Consistent Top 15 Team

Lake 2020-2021:

Absolute Dogshit

Deboer 2022:

Hot start. Top 25 potential
This post was edited on 9/15 at 2:45 pm


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Mulkey Man
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2021
15846 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
Akron with 4?


SummerOfGeorge
Alabama Fan
Brookhaven, GA
Member since Jul 2013
98576 posts
 Online 

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
Math formulas don't always conform to normal football scores.

In reality it would round down to 3.


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3down10
Alabama Fan
Member since Sep 2014
21986 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
quote:

Akron with 4?




Tennessee has to punt, and the long snapper puts the ball over the kickers head.

Then, on the next drive, Tennessee starts from their own 4, Hooker goes back to pass, but throws the ball away while getting sacked, and it's called for intentional grounding.



This post was edited on 9/15 at 2:49 pm


Mulkey Man
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2021
15846 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
It could happen. I was thinking: controversial call puts Akron in field-goal range. It makes the kick, causing storm of mustard bottles. Officials huddle, rather than call the game a forfeit, they award one point to the Zips.
This post was edited on 9/15 at 2:50 pm


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SummerOfGeorge
Alabama Fan
Brookhaven, GA
Member since Jul 2013
98576 posts
 Online 

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
quote:

Tennessee has to punt twice, and the long snapper puts the ball over the kickers head.

Then, on the next drive, Tennessee starts from their own 4, Hooker goes back to pass, but throws the ball away while getting sacked, and it's called for intentional grounding.





I prefer this to math being bad at football


Tornado Alley
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2012
23862 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
SOG, how has your model performed the first two weeks, both against the spread and overall?


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ISEN_AG
Texas A&M Fan
ThunderWolf Manor
Member since Aug 2013
1794 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
All 3 have A&M scoring in the 20s. Sadly I don't see us even getting there.


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SummerOfGeorge
Alabama Fan
Brookhaven, GA
Member since Jul 2013
98576 posts
 Online 

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
quote:

SOG, how has your model performed the first two weeks, both against the spread and overall?



Didn't do it Week 0 or week 1, but Week 2 went pretty well. That week was 100% projection from a formula of prior year/returning players/transfer/recruiting. This week is 70% current year data and 30% projection.

Week 2
vs line : 5-3 (projection = spread in State/Zona so theoretically no pick)
vs total : 6-3



The stats only use FBS vs FBS games, so there are some teams with only 1 FBS game that are really skewed still. Oregon is a prime example. Even with a SoS adjustment their defense is like 4th from last, because the only data included for them is giving up a literal touchdown on every drive. That will obviously even out some with more results (or they'll do it again and we'll actually believe they are that bad).
This post was edited on 9/15 at 2:58 pm


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Referee
North Alabama
Member since Dec 2021
3010 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
Miami beating A&M by 4. Will the rest of the Maggies be back with full force or will the few left abandon the Rant after a loss to Miami?


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meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
19838 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
I'm curious to see if SCAR can get 22 points.

They got 20 in overtime in 2019. And 20 points back in 2015.

It isn't a common occurrence for them against our defenses.


Serraneaux
Tennessee Fan
South of 30a
Member since Mar 2014
18113 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
Vols by Fiddy


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3down10
Alabama Fan
Member since Sep 2014
21986 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
quote:



I prefer this to math being bad at football


I corrected mine manually to prevent it(a function did it).

<= 1 = 0
<= 4 = 3
<= 6 = 6
8 = 7
11 = 10(I think, it's been years)

It's not "the math", and it kind of skewed the spread prediction a little. But I figured it's a hell of a lot better than what SP+ has with the 57-1 score Alabama score.




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WG_Dawg
Georgia Fan
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
82811 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
quote:

They got 20 in overtime in 2019


they scored 13 against our defense. And our offense couldn't stay on the field all day thanks to coley. The last time they scored 20 against our defense was as you mentioned in 2015, when tehy scored 20 exactly with steve spurrier at the helm.


CNB
South Carolina Fan
Columbia, SC
Member since Sep 2007
95356 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
I imagine if we sniff 20 it will be in garbage time


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10
PubeCrab
Auburn Fan
Member since May 2014
681 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
Ole Miss by 28? 16 point spread is a bit much on Ga Tech imo. Expect OM to win by 13 or 14.


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meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
19838 posts

re: Weekend SEC and other games - Lines, SP+, SOGa+ Picks
quote:

they scored 13 against our defense. And our offense couldn't stay on the field all day thanks to coley. The last time they scored 20 against our defense was as you mentioned in 2015, when tehy scored 20 exactly with steve spurrier at the helm.



Agreed. But to be fair, they could score on Saturday with special teams or defensive touchdowns too.

The number in my head is 13.
I think only Tennessee and Bama topped that number last season.

This season's number could be different. I don't think it has been identified, yet.


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