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Way Too Early 2021 KenPom and T Rank Rankings for SEC Basketball; 5 SEC Teams in Top 25
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:25 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:25 am
I have reverse engineered KenPom's preseason rankings the last couple years as best I could and have posted them over the summer the past couple years. They have been close to dead on once all the data is in. I will try and keep updating throughout the offseason as there will obviously be tons of movement with transfers/signees/declarations, etc.
KenPom uses a good bit of coach's history and program history in his preseason rankings and I have accounted for the weight that was given to that last season, though it is still heavily dependent on roster as well. Auburn is in the 200s in the T Rank right now (though their roster will likely be much better by the time the season starts), but in the 60s in KenPom based on Pearl's track record even with their current roster. A&M also got a boost from Buzz. I linked the raw data T Rank at the bottom of the page.
Here is the first iteration it spit out based on current signees/commits and projected returnees.
Projected KenPom SEC POY: Mason Jones, Arkansas
Projected KenPom First Team All SEC
Mason Jones, Arkansas
John Fulkerson, Tennessee
Keyontae Johnson, Florida
Immanuel Quickley, Kentucky
Rayshaun Hammonds, Georgia
Top 5 Impact Transfers:
1. Tyree Appleby, Florida (Cleveland State)
2. Jarkel Joiner, Ole Miss (Cal State Bakersfield)
3. Anthony Duruji, Florida (Louisiana Tech)
4. Baybay Iyiola, Arkansas (Stetson)
5. Victor Bailey Jr., Tennessee (Oregon)
Top 5 Impact Freshman:
1. Terrence Clarke, Kentucky
2. B.J. Boston, Kentucky
3. Jaden Springer, Tennessee
4. Sharife Cooper, Auburn
5. Keon Johnson, Tennessee
Projected Standings (National Rank)
1. KENTUCKY (4)
G Immanuel Quickley
G B.J. Boston
G Terrance Clarke
F Keion Brooks
F E.J. Montgomery
2. FLORIDA (15)
G Andrew Nembhard
G Tre Mann
G Noah Locke
F Keyontae Johnson
F Omar Payne
3. TENNESSEE (18)
G Santiago Vescovi
G Jaden Springer
G Keon Johnson
F Yves Pons
F John Fulkerson
4. LSU (20)
G Javonte Smart
G Cameron Thomas
F Emmitt Williams
F Darius Days
F Trendon Watford
5. ARKANSAS (23)
G Jalen Harris
G Mason Jones
G Moses Moody
G Isaiah Joe
F Connor Vanover
6. MISSOURI (43)
G Xavier Pinson
G Dru Smith
G Javon Pickett
F Mitchell Smith
F Jeremiah Tillmon
7. SOUTH CAROLINA (58)
G Jermaine Cousnard
G AJ Lawson
G Keyshawn Bryant
G Justin Minaya
F Alanzo Frink
8. ALABAMA (60)
G Jahvon Quinerly
G Jaden Shackelford
G John Petty
F Herbert Jones
F Javian Davis
9. AUBURN (64)
G Sharife Cooper
G Justin Powell
G Devan Cambridge
F Chris Moore
F Jaylin Williams
10. TEXAS A&M (78)
G Andre Gordon
G Quenton Jackson
F Savion Flagg
F Emanuel Miller
F Jonathan Aku
11. OLE MISS (79)
G Devontae Shuler
G Jarkel Joiner
G Matthew Murrell
F KJ Buffen
F Khadim Sy
12. MISSISSIPPI STATE (96)
G Nick Weatherspoon
G Iverson Molinar
G DJ Stewart
F KeyShawn Feazell
F Abdul Ado
13. GEORGIA (98)
G Sahvir Wheeler
G KD Johnson
G Tye Fagan
F Toumani Camara
F Rayshaun Hammonds
14. VANDERBILT (110)
G Scotty Pippen
G Saben Lee
G Maxwell Evans
F DJ Harvey
F Dylan Disu
Here are T Rank Projections which is raw data and does not account for program/coach track record
KenPom uses a good bit of coach's history and program history in his preseason rankings and I have accounted for the weight that was given to that last season, though it is still heavily dependent on roster as well. Auburn is in the 200s in the T Rank right now (though their roster will likely be much better by the time the season starts), but in the 60s in KenPom based on Pearl's track record even with their current roster. A&M also got a boost from Buzz. I linked the raw data T Rank at the bottom of the page.
Here is the first iteration it spit out based on current signees/commits and projected returnees.
Projected KenPom SEC POY: Mason Jones, Arkansas
Projected KenPom First Team All SEC
Mason Jones, Arkansas
John Fulkerson, Tennessee
Keyontae Johnson, Florida
Immanuel Quickley, Kentucky
Rayshaun Hammonds, Georgia
Top 5 Impact Transfers:
1. Tyree Appleby, Florida (Cleveland State)
2. Jarkel Joiner, Ole Miss (Cal State Bakersfield)
3. Anthony Duruji, Florida (Louisiana Tech)
4. Baybay Iyiola, Arkansas (Stetson)
5. Victor Bailey Jr., Tennessee (Oregon)
Top 5 Impact Freshman:
1. Terrence Clarke, Kentucky
2. B.J. Boston, Kentucky
3. Jaden Springer, Tennessee
4. Sharife Cooper, Auburn
5. Keon Johnson, Tennessee
Projected Standings (National Rank)
1. KENTUCKY (4)
G Immanuel Quickley
G B.J. Boston
G Terrance Clarke
F Keion Brooks
F E.J. Montgomery
2. FLORIDA (15)
G Andrew Nembhard
G Tre Mann
G Noah Locke
F Keyontae Johnson
F Omar Payne
3. TENNESSEE (18)
G Santiago Vescovi
G Jaden Springer
G Keon Johnson
F Yves Pons
F John Fulkerson
4. LSU (20)
G Javonte Smart
G Cameron Thomas
F Emmitt Williams
F Darius Days
F Trendon Watford
5. ARKANSAS (23)
G Jalen Harris
G Mason Jones
G Moses Moody
G Isaiah Joe
F Connor Vanover
6. MISSOURI (43)
G Xavier Pinson
G Dru Smith
G Javon Pickett
F Mitchell Smith
F Jeremiah Tillmon
7. SOUTH CAROLINA (58)
G Jermaine Cousnard
G AJ Lawson
G Keyshawn Bryant
G Justin Minaya
F Alanzo Frink
8. ALABAMA (60)
G Jahvon Quinerly
G Jaden Shackelford
G John Petty
F Herbert Jones
F Javian Davis
9. AUBURN (64)
G Sharife Cooper
G Justin Powell
G Devan Cambridge
F Chris Moore
F Jaylin Williams
10. TEXAS A&M (78)
G Andre Gordon
G Quenton Jackson
F Savion Flagg
F Emanuel Miller
F Jonathan Aku
11. OLE MISS (79)
G Devontae Shuler
G Jarkel Joiner
G Matthew Murrell
F KJ Buffen
F Khadim Sy
12. MISSISSIPPI STATE (96)
G Nick Weatherspoon
G Iverson Molinar
G DJ Stewart
F KeyShawn Feazell
F Abdul Ado
13. GEORGIA (98)
G Sahvir Wheeler
G KD Johnson
G Tye Fagan
F Toumani Camara
F Rayshaun Hammonds
14. VANDERBILT (110)
G Scotty Pippen
G Saben Lee
G Maxwell Evans
F DJ Harvey
F Dylan Disu
Here are T Rank Projections which is raw data and does not account for program/coach track record
18
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:29 am to volfan30
Yeah a whollleeee lot of this will change over the coming months 
We are only expected to return 4, maybe 5 players off this team. They are trying to sign a class of 9 with the 2 transfers we have already.
I think Josh Leblanc should be on the impact transfer list, dude was freshman all big east last year. As of now will at least be eligible for conference play, trying to get waiver to be eligible immediately.
Emmitt Williams is going pro for us
We are only expected to return 4, maybe 5 players off this team. They are trying to sign a class of 9 with the 2 transfers we have already.
I think Josh Leblanc should be on the impact transfer list, dude was freshman all big east last year. As of now will at least be eligible for conference play, trying to get waiver to be eligible immediately.
Emmitt Williams is going pro for us
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 11:29 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:32 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
Emmitt Williams is going pro for us
hope he has a change of heart and stays
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:32 am to thunderbird1100
LeBlanc ended up 8th but very little separation after the top 2. KenPom doesn't weight transfers as all that heavily so I just listed the T Rank data.
Here it is
Here it is
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:36 am to volfan30
quote:
3. TENNESSEE (18)
G Santiago Vescovi
G Jaden Springer
G Keon Johnson
F Yves Pons
F John Fulkerson
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:39 am to volfan30
quote:
LeBlanc ended up 8th but very little separation after the top 2. KenPom doesn't weight transfers as all that heavily so I just listed the T Rank data.
Ah looks like it's only factoring in this season where he only played a few games, had a great freshman season though. Would have been much higher up probably if they took his freshman year into account. 22.5 PER.
Josh LeBlanc - Sports Reference
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 11:40 am
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:40 am to volfan30
quote:
5. ARKANSAS (23)
G Jalen Harris
G Mason Jones
G Moses Moody
G Isaiah Joe
F Connor Vanover
I appreciate the work but Jalen is more likely to transfer than to start or be in the main rotation imo.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:43 am to thunderbird1100
Good catch. He would be 3rd on the list in the SEC based on 2019 numbers.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:46 am to rockiee
Interesting. I actually have Robinson and Sills inputted as playing more minutes but listed Harris as a starter.
This is basically a rough draft considering all the changes everybody is going to go through over the next couple months.
What is the projected starting lineup iyo?
This is basically a rough draft considering all the changes everybody is going to go through over the next couple months.
What is the projected starting lineup iyo?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:56 am to volfan30
quote:
Interesting. I actually have Robinson and Sills inputted as playing more minutes but listed Harris as a starter.
That might actually be most likely for the first couple of weeks or so just because of experience but fully expect one of those to take that spot for sure after.
quote:
This is basically a rough draft considering all the changes everybody is going to go through over the next couple months.
Yep and this is a very difficult and time consuming undertaking and happy to have something like this to discuss.
quote:
What is the projected starting lineup iyo?
By the time SEC play rolls around I would guess
Sills
Joe
Jones
Moody/Williams
Vanover
Kind of just depends if we can get away with a smaller line up against some teams
I could also see at the end of games a line up with no true PG
Jones
Joe
Moody
Williams
Vanover
Just depends on how good Jaylin Williams can be, I think we know Moody will be successful. KK Robinson could also slide in to the line up if he adjusts to the game quickly.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:01 pm to KellerChrystFan
quote:
Quickley will be gone.
Not listed in any mock drafts, even in the 2nd round. UK seems to expect him back, but I think it's about 50/50.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:01 pm to volfan30
quote:
8. ALABAMA (60)
Looks very 18-15ish to me - right where we like it
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:01 pm to volfan30
quote:
1. Terrence Clarke, Kentucky
2. B.J. Boston, Kentucky
3. Jaden Springer, Tennessee
4. Sharife Cooper, Auburn
5. Keon Johnson, Tennessee
You know the league is heading in a better direction when you see a list like this.
12 Players in the top 50 of 247 and probably going to be 14 when its all said and done
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:04 pm to volfan30
He will end up being a late first rounder.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Looks very 18-15ish to me - right where we like it
How much turnover is Oats going to enact? Based on some of those quotes no one is safe.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:06 pm to volfan30
quote:
9. AUBURN (64)
G Sharife Cooper
G Justin Powell
G Devan Cambridge
F Chris Moore
F Jaylin Williams
I think we'll be top half again, but I can see how this ranking would make sense with the amount of experience and production we're losing.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:09 pm to rockiee
Givony has Boston, Clarke, Johnson in the lottery plus Green and Kuminga.
I think Springer is easily the worst of the 5 listed in the OP. Johnson is the best freshman Tennessee has enrolled in the modern era imo. The Okoro comp is almost uncanny.
I think Springer is easily the worst of the 5 listed in the OP. Johnson is the best freshman Tennessee has enrolled in the modern era imo. The Okoro comp is almost uncanny.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:09 pm to rockiee
Yeah Jalen will fall behind KK, Davis and JD quick
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:10 pm to Bigbens42
Auburn should be adding Green, still the favorites?
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